WEATHER
I don’t see any major issues and very warm temps in Texas and Arizona, so I would suspect that both roofs are closed.
No major wind anywhere and it’s 99 degrees in St. Louis for the Pirates and Cardinals, but at under aint one.
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Would be nice if tonight we can not have our 1a pitcher leave in the first inning and our 1b pitcher not have the worst defense in the history behind him. Just a small ask on this Monday in June, thank you.
The marquee game today features the best pitcher in the NL right now Sandy Alcantara vs Aaron Nola and the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. Sandy has had some rough starts in Philly and the Marlins have hit well in Philly historically.
We also have the return of Lance Lynn tonight for the White Sox. I would plan for him throwing 50-60 pitches with some potential for more but also potential that they pull him before starting an inning when he sits at 58 pitches or so. He is only $5,500 on FanDuel because … well, I don’t know why he is only $5,500 on FanDuel. There are going to be some who say he is a must own there. They are wrong. FanDuel is a ONE pitcher site which has a more flat pricing structure (I honestly prefer that we don’t have a $2k difference between guys like Acuna and Ozuna), and so it’s easier to build hitting options around a singular pitcher. Thus, there’s no reason to ever take a pitcher who has a hard ceiling of 30 points on FanDuel when there ARE multiple pitchers who are very likely to push towards a 50. You are automatically giving away 20 points to a good portion of the field when the benefit is absolutely NOTHING. You aren’t “able to fit the bats in”, because you can fit the bats in with a 7k or 8k pitcher who does not have a pitch count limit as well.
So no, I am not bothering with Lance Lynn on FanDuel at $5,500. If anything, I might use the leverage of Grossman & Meadows against a SP coming off the IL on a pitch count limit who people might be touting up as a must own. DK doesn’t matter. He is priced up there.
Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
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NOLA vs SANDY (FD/DK)
If you have a personal lean on this game I won’t deter you on either guy. Nola is coming off an 8 IP, 0 BB 25.2 CSW% and Sandy is coming off a 9 IP, 0 BB as well and had a 33% CSW.
Nola’s challenge tonight is Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Sanchez and believe it or not — Jorge Soler who I think drills a HR and has a big series.
For Sandy, his challenge is making sure he doesn’t walk Rhys and Castellanos. If he keeps those two swinging then he has a solid game.
ALEK MANOAH (FD/DK)
Alek Manoah is going to have a long solid career in this league. But right now he is having a little bit of a Sophomore slump which nobody is talking about.
Sure, the raw stats are good, he has a 0.85 WHIP, has seen his K% drop from 27% to 22% but dropped his BB rate down from 8.7 to 4.8%. Opponents are slugging .344 off him and his hard hit rate is only 27%. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Right?
The thing that is off with Manoah though is his approach vs LHB. He has gone from dominating them just as much as RHB to giving up a .299 xAVG and only 15% strikeout rate after striking out nearly 30% of them a year ago.
So what changed you asked? Nothing, he’s just learning to pitch and going through the pains of realizing that in order to be a bulldog and pitch 100+ pitches when he takes the mound he has to be in the zone more.
Against lefties, he has thrown his 4-seamer in the zone 15% more this season and when he IS in the zone, he is up more which is going to result in opponents being able to put the ball in play more, just not for heavy power. The velocity is actually up and the Sw% outside the zone is up as well. But he clearly is taking the approach that hey I can hopefully trust my (good) defense behind me and make sure that all the contact is that which won’t end up leaving the park.
The end result. He is going deep into games but running into innings where the ball finds dirt more and a lineup with enough lefties will put runners on and eventually get a run or two on him before he has to go back into bulldog mode.
He is that 6-7 inning guy, throwing 95-100 pitches, striking out 6 to 8 and giving up a few hits and 2-3 ER. He’s gonna continue to kill the Yankees because their lefties suck and a team like the Orioles tonight he should be able to handle Santander and even Odor who won’t touch that gas up and away. But Mullins & Adley?? Those guys will poke him and not in a good way.
MERRILL KELLY (DK)
No, I am not going to write a book on Merrill Kelly, he is who he is. He should get you a 2x to upside of 3x return today. The challenge is seeing the Reds twice in one week but this is still a weak lineup overall despite hitting better over the last month. Votto has cooled off slightly and without Tyler Stephenson that loses a key bat for them.
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Other Pitching Nuggets
Justin Steele (DK – $7400) – This is a boost spot for Steele against the Padres who throw up low scores with the best of them. The wind could be blowing out tonight by the time we get to game time in Chicago but if its a cross wind or just below 10mph then Steele should be safe.
Mike Minor (DK: $4700) – Minor has four guys in the Arizona lineup who mash lefties. Marte & Walker have extremely high DCPA metrics vs him, but Luplow and Kelly do not. So for almost min price with Minor getting stretched out to ~90 pitches and facing a team returning home off a long road trip he can potentially have a 10 to 15 point game. You gotta nail the SP1 and your primary stack but going Sandy, Minor and my top team below (Houston) on DK in a 5 man stack is a nice third lineup build today on DK.
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Astros: Alvarez, Tucker, Altuve, Pena
Roof closed? Who cares. The Astros will see Taylor Hearn for the second time this season and the big 6’6 lefty won’t survive much this time.
Texas has blown through their pen lately as well and after going something like 3-28 with RISP over the weekend the Astros are going to erupt.
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Cardinals: Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gorman, O’Neill
I have always liked when a veteran hitter gets a random day off. The Cardinals gave Paul Goldschmidt Sunday off right before a big 4 game series with the Pirates and it’s 99 degrees here in St. Louis? Big Yikes boys.
Should be an easy over for the Buccos and Red-Birds in our top game of the night and Hayes/Reynolds/Suwinski from the Pirates are also in consideration.
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Blue Jays: Hernandez, Bichette
Anyone know how long I have been jockeying for Teoscar Hernandez to have a 2 HR game, hell, let a lone a 1 HR game? Feels like I write it up every day, and well, we’re not quitting now.
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Other teams to consider in multi-lineups
White Sox: Pollock, Vaughn, Robert, Abreu, Burger
Struggling offense gets to face a team they have murdered in recent years. The Detroit bullpen has .. oh look, fallen off the face of the earth just as we expected. The problem is this team needs a shot in the arm like nobody’s business.
Diamondbacks: Marte, Walker, Rojas, Peralta
Minor can put up a 12 and the Diamondbacks lineup can be a good stack. Both can be true tonight and I am not writing this up as a ‘hedge’ or to cover all the bases. Nope. You have to play Marte+Walker if you have any Arizona exposure and then with Minor potentially stopping after 5 IP and 3 ER and 6 K the Reds bullpen will take over which should help Rojas/Peralta
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Today’s BOOST+ Players
Buxton, Correa, Urshela (MIN), Machado, Alfaro, Kim (SD), Marte (ARI), Donovan (STL), Perez (KC), Rojas (MIA)
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CATCHER
Very quiet for a Monday among the catchers. If Moreno starts at his price he is the play on DK, if not the highest I would go is Gary Sanchez, which can’t feel great.
- Gary Sanchez
- Gabriel Moreno (TOR) … Still cheap and a great addition to Toronto stack if he draws the start
- Martin Maldanado
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FIRST BASE
Unlike C, this is a Mt. Rushmore type position today. Goldy at $5800 over Vlad at $5500 is one leverage pivot today among the high end options while Walker at $3600 is one of the bargain plays on this slate.
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Christian Walker
- Jose Abreu
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SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Tommy Edman
- Ketel Marte
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THIRD BASE
Not a lot here tonight just because Arenado/Riley/Machado are all well above 5k on DraftKings. I’ll have Nolan on FanDuel and would recommend Hayes on DK. If you want the deep value, it’s Gio Urshela.
- KeBryan Hayes
- Nolan Arenado
- Gio Urshela
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SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Jeremy Pena
- Miguel Rojas
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OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
Playing Yordan and Tucker vs Lefties is a cheat code, but yes they are EXTREMELY expensive so just pick one and go on to the next tier.
- Yordan Alvarez
- Bryan Reynolds
- Byron Buxton
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Andrew Vaughn
- Joc Pederson
- Tyler O’Neill
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Marcell Ozuna
OUTFIELD – Value
- Harrison Bader
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Aristides Acquino
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The Dongers Club
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Martin Maldanado – C – Astros
- BONUS ……………. Joc Pederson – OF – Giants
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CORE BATS
Carlos Correa
Christian Walker (DK)
KeBryan Hayes
BETTING PLAYS
Pirates/Cardinals OVER 9.5
Twins ML (+101)
Astros ML (-165)
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