Today is June 14th, which is the anniversary of a very dark dark day in New York Mets history. June 14th, as I am sure you recall, is the day when Keith Hernandez was FALSELY accused of spitting on two innocent Mets fans leaving the Stadium. It was not Keith Hernandez who did this act, but actually pitcher Roger McDowell who committed the loogie act from behind the bushes.
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Meanwhile At DratKings … We have reached the point of the season when the pricing algo for hitters turns into pure garbage every single night. We should not have a $4k difference on hitters, let alone a $2500 difference on hitters with similar qualities on a nightly basis, but that’s what they do over there.
Welcome to your theme of the night. High end SP will fit with the low end value homers.
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WEATHER
Got some alert on my phone about Tornado’s or Hail or something like that? I dunno, sounds ominous, but I don’t think the worst of it is coming for a while, I’d play all games tonight personally.
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DYLAN CEASE (DK/FD)
Happy Dylan CYease day as he gets the Detroit Tigers, which is a lineup that will swing and miss with the best of them against Cease. The Tigers lineup weighted by the top of the order has the lowest AVG, WOBA and SLG metrics on the board tonight and they offer 20-30% strikeout rates depending on how we break it down using Cease’s pitch breakdown.
Plus unlike Lance Lynn he isn’t going to be limited and if anything, the White Sox could really use a long outing from him tonight. Cease is a VERY good pitcher — not quite elite — but he is ELITE vs bad teams like the Tigers, Royals, Orioles, etc….
TONY GONSOLIN
Hey Tony, thanks for coming down to the office. Listen, uh, we’re gonna need you to go ahead and be the Ace of this staff now? Mmkay? Thanks. That’d be great.
Angels/Dodgers definitely feels like it should have some juice in it today but with the pricing the way it is, you’ll find that you can play Cease + one of Gonsolin/Bieber or Cole and nobody wants Cole vs the Rays and NOBODY wants Bieber in Coors do they? Well, you might but the Angels are still striking out at a ridiculous rate, including on Sunday night then Taijuan Walker killed them with his splitter.
CHRIS BASSITT (DK)
I hate east coast teams coming back home after a long road trip but that doesn’t mean the pitcher will be poor. The total in this game is 8 which to me feels like an easy under play in what should be a well pitched and low scoring game on both sides. Have to trust Bassitt a little more though than Adrian Houser.
JOSE URQUIDY (DK)
In the search for a sleeper SP tonight I thought long and hard about a way to work Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Ur Quidding Me together into a phrase that made sense but I just lacked the brain cells for that, sorry.
So yeah, Kikuchi and Urquidy were the last two options and Urquidy is not only $1600 cheaper, but he has also managed to get a good amount of whiffs against Texas in his last start. A sub 7k arm who can throw 6 innings & get a win with under 4 ER allowed.
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Other Pitching Nuggets
Yes Cole will “bounce back” some tonight, but not without giving up 2 more HR. Too many other good options
I am not touching Nick Pivetta, Logan Webb or Zach Eflin who could be popular.
Ditto Max Fried, just too much $$ for a warm park and an offense that’s not giving him any strike out boosts.
Logan Gilbert vs Joe-lan Ryan is a great late night SP match-up if you can stay up to watch it but not an easy inning for either starter in that game. Classic Marriage Date where you are very optimistic about everything and then the night is over and you’re still awake wondering what all the excitement was about.
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I believe that tonight is going to be a little bit of a changing of the guard slate. The hottest teams of late have been the Braves, Phillies, Yankees and to some extent Blue Jays offense(s).
But we have some new series starting in in certain spots and also a scenario where tonight certain ball parks are going to just outshine over everything else. The MLB season is a marathon of streaks and while some teams in the end might not be very good or might not be very bad, they’re going to have a good or bad streak to make you ponder what they really are. Like, the Dodgers, a team who I believe is in trouble long term but is still going to have some get right spots. Like now.
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Guardians: Straw, Rosario, Naylor, Gonzalez
Hey cool! A team who doesn’t strike out at all and has a bunch of gap hitters is going into the best ballpark for simply putting the ball in play.
People assume that Coors Field is just a homers park, just like people assume State Farm doesn’t have great rates on insurance. But what gets overlooked time and time again is the massive outfield that is in Coors which makes it really hard to defend when you have teams who are good at just putting the ball in play — which is basically all Cleveland does. It could be a long series for the Rockies.
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Cubs/Padres (Wrigley): Wisdom, Schwindel, Contreras (CHC), Profar, Hosmer, Kim (SD)
It’s not the Wind in Wrigley as much as it is the heat that has me on this game and both sides of it. Yes, this game could rival Coors tonight in ownership but it’s honestly the Cubs side I would prefer to be heavy on.
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CONTRARIAN STACKS
Marlins: Chisholm, Soler, Aguilar, Sanchez, Rojas
Phillies SP Zach Eflin has pitched very well in three straight home starts against the Dodgers, Angels and Padres however the Marlins are full of players who have really good pitch metrics against his primary Sinker/Curve pitch distribution. Warm in Philly today so the Marlins in this small park are a good value team to look at for multiple homers (value excluding Jazz of course).
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Dodgers: Betts, Trea Turner, Will Smith
Very favorable for the cold Dodgers to get Syndergaard at home tonight. Do not sleep on Mookie and Trea because the ability to run on Syndergaard remains worth picking on. Plus he hasn’t exactly been lights out vs RHH either this year. LAD will be < 5% tonight because of their extreme prices and a lot of other options but I can see them taking something down on FanDuel at those prices.
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Today’s BOOST+ Players
Oscar Gonzalez, Christian Bethancourt, Rhys Hoskins, Willson Contreras, Austin Slater, Tyler Nevin, Jurickson Profar, Curt Casali, Lane Thomas, Patrick Wisdom, Jazz Jazz Jazz, Seth Brown, Marcell Ozuna, Jeff McNeil, Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez.
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CATCHER
Why is any catcher priced 1500 more than a .300+ hitter in Coors Field is? Can someone explain this to me?
- Daulton Varsho … Lead off homer vs Mahle incoming
- Christian Bethancourt … I like Oakland tonight so his $3300 price is worty it and he has been having a good road trip.
- Austin Hedges
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FIRST BASE
Last night was the Mt. Rushmore spot for the Studs at 1st Base. Tonight is the value players night.
- Tyler Nevin
- Jesus Aguilar
- Frank Schwindel
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SECOND BASE
- Jazz Chisholm Jr
- Max Muncy
- Jake Cronenworth
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THIRD BASE
As your counselor I would advise you to just find a way to play Jose Ramirez, but I cannot force you to do that.
- Jose Ramirez
- Patrick Wisdom
- Alec Bohm
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SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Bobby Witt Jr – Birthday boy
- Miguel Rojas
- Carlos Correa
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OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Oscar Gonzalez
- Yordan Alvarez – Had a HR robbed of him last night and his price went down. Cool!
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mookie Betts
- Byron Buxton
- Jurickson Profar
OUTFIELD – Value
- Austin Slater
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Jesus Sanchez
- More Guardians
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The Dongers Club
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Frank Schwindel – 1B – Cubs
- Patrick Wisdom – 3B – Cubs
- Miguel Rojas – SS – Marlins
- Jesus Aguilar – 1B – Marlins
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Kevin Kiermaier – OF – Rays
- BONUS ………………………. Daulton Varsho – C/OF – Diamondbacks
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CORE PICKS
We can go so many different ways tonight simply because there is so much value on both sites. I outlined WHY I like the Guardians as a team going into Colorado and given their prices you are getting some nice solid plays there for a team who I do project to score a good amount tonight even without the long ball.
The Marlins are another great value team, as are the Athletics vs Nick Pivetta from a leverage stand point.
Jazz Chisholm leaps off the page today, Jose Ramirez does as well. So they’re the top pay up plays outside of stacking a team like the Dodgers.
Favorite Stud: Jose Ramirez
Favorite One Off: Teoscar Hernandez
Favorite Value: Oscar Gonzalez
PITCHING: And so with all that value, on DraftKings the route of going two high end SP’s is easier to do tonight. If you believe in Cole then great, but Cease is a must own SP1 tonight.
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BETTING PLAYS
I like some dogs tonight, specifically the Rays, Marlins, Nationals, Athletics and Brewers. I don’t have a specific one that I like more than the other but I’ll have plays on each of them tonight.
Padres/Cubs OVER 10.5
Guardians -1.5
Astros ML
Mariners ML
Diamondbacks ML
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