Happy Father’s Day to all the Dad’s out there, today is our special day and I hope that you have some Father’s Day traditions either with your Dad, your kids, your grandkids, or just yourself. It doesn’t matter, just find a way to make time to appreciate yourself.
I had intended to do an article for last nights short slate as well but opted to take it off. Actually, I was at the bar, forgot about it and then one of my kids called me up and said lets go get Taco’s, so we did that. And in this weird way I felt like it was a nice little reset and we’re going to have a fantastic DFS slate today.
Then of course I saw Yusei Kikuchi was pitching and well I am just ready for the Afternoon Tilt slate already now while watching the finale of the U.S. Open.
Eight game main slate on DraftKings
Nine game main slate on FanDuel, which includes a Coors game that I am actually excited is on the slate.
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WEATHER
There are no issues today. It’s a lot of 70 degree games with some wind but nothing that’s bad. It’s perfect.
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Some good pitchers going today. Luis Severino returns to face a lineup that he should profile extremely well against given that he dominates RHB and this is entirely a RH heavy lineup. That said, with him missing his last start due to COVID concerns and my feeling that Toronto wins today I am a little hesitant to pay the 10k+ price on Sevvy.
Another high priced guy I just won’t touch is Sandy Alcantara vs a good Mets lineup on a Sunday in Citi Field.
The one thing though about Sevvy and Sandy is they are easily the two guys who if they’re on are going to pitch extremely clean, but both are on the road vs good teams and I don’t see them having those clean starts, so we can pay in the mid range instead.
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IAN ANDERSON
Good luck to the Cubbies hitters today. Outside of Ian Happ this is one of the worst line-ups in the league at making contact on Change-Ups and last I checked this game isn’t being moved to Cincinnati where Ian Happ is a hall of famer, so I have no problems using Anderson as our SP1, who is WAY better than his 4.81 ERA this year indicates.
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NICK PIVETTA
Fenway is going to feel like April or September today, it’s cooler there, the dew point is low and we have St. Louis coming off a huge get right game last night and now likely going back into their sleep Sunday routine. I would expect Pivetta to be cautious with Goldy and Arenado but he can handle the rest of this lineup with ease.
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DANE DUNNING
Dunning has been getting a good amount of whiff’s on his slider this year and the Tigers are among the worst collective team in the league at chasing breaking pitches. A day after Riley Greene joined the lineup and the Tigers put up 14 I can see Dunning coming out today and quieting their bats back to normal.
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Sunday Sleepers
Yusei Kikuchi – He owns the Yankees, which is one of the biggest natural wonders in the world. Kikuchi sucks, he misses his targets all the time, he gets hammered by RHB and is facing the bleeping Yankees. But he just owns them and they’re most certainly going to be donkey chalk today.
Mitch Keller – In theory the Giants in PNC park is a dream spot for their offense and Brandon Belt if he plays should be able to have a big game. But Keller is pitching well to lefties and the Pirates always seem to have nice home performances on Sunday’s from their pitching.
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Today is spread out enough that you can build around a 2-2-2 type approach with lineups. I see this being a great day to consider one offs though around a central core stack instead of trying to jam two teams together in a 4-3-1 type build.
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Cincinnati Reds
Votto, Drury, Senzel, Garcia
I am going back to Great American Smallpark and the land of Adrian Houser’s nightmares. I’m really starting to develop a strong belief that this park is the worst stadium in the league for throwing sinkers (the dimensions don’t help for sure) and Houser has made 7 starts in Cincy in his career posting a 6.46 ERA, worst among any park where he has made more than 2 starts in.
This is also a good low ball hitting offense, specifically we’re looking at Drury (.339 vs Sinkers), Votto (.639 xSLG) and Senzel (Has never injured himself swinging at a Sinker) as three guys that should do well. Pham being sandwhiched between Drury/Votto is an expensive ($5600 on DK?? Huh??) stack guy and Aramis Garcia is a nice punt Sunday Catcher for $2900 on DK.
Milwaukee is also struggling lately in the bullpen with lack of depth and so if/when they chase Houser we’ll get additional points later in the game even with a home team stack.
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ORIOLES
Rustchman, Hays, Odor
Baltimore swapped pitchers today going with Austin Voth and so you’re going to see a good deal of Tampa chalk pop up. Let it happen because the Orioles are not losing a home game on Father’s Day.
Corey Kluber has proven in the last few years that he needs to be pitching in a graveyard environment to do well and this is not that scenario. Baltimore’s lineup today grades out as one of the best cutter hitting lineups in the league. Look for potentially big games from Hays and Odor while Adley/Mountcastle and Mullins round out this nice stack.
Unfortunately, Odor is hitting 6th and not Adley. Oh well, we’ll take em both.
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RED SOX
Devers, Martinez, Story
I covered the weather potentially boosting up Nick Pivetta, but if we have one team which people sleep on today too much it has to be the Red Sox. Instincts migiht say that Raffy Devers plays well here but do not overlook J.D. Martinez and yes …. Trevor Story still plays Baseball.
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PADRES – FD Only
Machado
My father, who passed away a few years ago, was a Mathematician and I must say he did pass that gene on to me fairly well as I was fairly good with numbers when I was a kid. In the third grade I recall doing this game where one kid stands up behind the other and whoever can do the math the fastest on the flash card gets to move on and you try to do this all the way around the room. I was the best at that game whenever the card would flash up 28 x 3.
But even I could use a little help here on what we have with the Padres and Rockies FanDuel Only Coors game today. So can you help me out with my math here as I mighit have had a few drinks yesterday and I could be forgetting to round something up.
By my metrics, it says here that the law of averages indicate the Padres have lost 9 straight games in Coors Field and that likely is going to end soon. It’s also Sunday which is the day that Manny Machado hits best and he is getting Antonio Senzatella (not a guy who pitches down in the zone very much), right?
Okay, so and … today is … Father’s Day? And they’re called …. The … Padres?
Yes?
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Today’s BOOST+ Players
Kyle Higahsioka, Luis Gonzalez, Marcll Ozuna, Gleyber Torres, Travis d’Arnaud, Luke VOit, Adley Rutschman, Brendan ROdgers, STarling Marte, Manny Machado, Eric Haase, Pete Alonsohmy god, Rougned Odor.
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CATCHER
Have yourself a day young Adley Rutschman. Something massive like a multi-homer game or hitting for the cycle is probably in store for Adley. Hopefully it’s not a golden sombrero. I might even lock him in on FD
- Adley Rustchman
- Kyle Higashioka
- Aramis Garcia
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FIRST BASE
I mentioned the good pitchers giving up a run or two and Pete Alonso vs Sandy Alcantara is that run or two for the Mets.
- Pete Alonso
- Joey Votto
- Brandon Belt
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SECOND BASE
This is a really good position today.
- Gleyber Torres – Gleyber is the one guy that Kikuchi has not handled with ease. Just sounds weird to type….
- Rougned Odor
- Trevor Story
- Jazz “Mr 2% Owned” Chisholm Jr
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THIRD BASE
Manny on FD or go a little contrarian here on DK. Not much outside of Devers who I wouldn’t force in today.
- Manny Machado
- KeBryan Hayes
- Brandon Drury
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SHORTSTOP
Go contrarian with a stud here today. I have bashed Lindor for being someone that just lives off beating up on mediocre pitching, but he has metrics that one should not have against Sandy and in the case of Bichette him or Springer are going to ambush Severino.
- Beaux Bichette
- Francisco Lindor
- Brandon Crawford
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OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
Outfield is very weird today. I like some names that I am sure will be 2-5% owned at best. Stanton is the play not Judge if you are going to ride a Yankee hitter here and Andrew McCutchen or Hunter Renfroe should have a big hit off Mike Minor but I don’t like anything else from Milwaukee. So outside of those guys, it’s Orioles, Reds or Red Sox…
- Austin Hays
- JD Martinez
- Andrew McCutchen
- Giancarlo Stanton
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Cedric Mullins / Anthony Santander
- Starling Marte
- Manny Margot
- Randal Grichuk (FD)
- Thomas Pham
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Nick Senzel
- Avisail Garcia
- Kevin Kermaier
- Rob ‘Dont call me Chris Owings’ Refsnyder
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The Dongers Club
- Adley Rustchman – C – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Thomas Pham – OF – Reds
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Jazz 2% Chisholm Jr – 2B – Marlins
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- Austin Hays – OF – Orioles
- Andrew McCutchen – OF – Brewers
- BONUS …………….. Trevor Story – 2B – Red Sox
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BETTING PLAYS
Orioles ML
Reds ML
Blue Jays ML
Padres ML
Braves/Cubs UNDER 9
Marlins/Mets OVER 7
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