Neither FanDuel or DraftKings included the Coors Field game today, so rejoice for that news if you did not want to deal with that mess. In fact, the game has just gone and vanished like a fart in the wind as it’s not on any classic slate today at all.
The night game tonight is the Cardinals and Phillies as Nolan Arenado continues to remind the Phillies how retarded they were for not making an offer to the Rockies for him a couple years ago.
This means that on the 4PM tilt slate we have MacKenzie Gore vs Clayton Kershaw and no, my pants are no longer on. But for now, we address this MAIN slate which is likely to be a little less crazy scoring than yesterday’s.
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WEATHER
All clear.
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This is another one of those Classic Sunday slates where I like the sleeper pitchers more than the guys who feel ‘obvious’ to you out there.
BRANDON WOODRUFF
There are two paths in which Woodruff fails. The first involves Bane coming back to Pittsburgh to finish what he started at Heinz Field and the second involves Bryan Reynolds and Daniel Vogelbach hitting bombs.
Otherwise this is a game he once again has 8+ strikeouts and this is coming from someone who isn’t a huge Woodruff fan overall.
MY SUNDAY SLEEPERS
Boy this is a doozie of a combination today my friends.
TRISTON McKENZIE
I know that people read my articles and will say “I didnt like that pick”, which is always weird to me because … you don’t have to like the pick before the slate begins. Now maybe it’s my rationale or how some GIF I used in the message, but the bottom line here is that I don’t like half the guys I mention either, but I base my picks off what I see between the data and what I feel in my gut.
Oh, don’t get confused, there’s absolutely ZERO data behind the McKenzie pick today. His fastball has been torched for homers by RHH, and this is uh, the Yankees.
Right. Exactly. Following a double-header and in the lefty park, this looks like it could be one of those McKenzie 8-9 strike out games. The Yanks have a long history of not scoring runs when J-Montgomery pitches and so McKenzie is my sleeper SP of the day.
Of course you aren’t going to like it if you strictly follow data, but then in that case if you are right then that means McKenzie threw something low to Stanton and the ball wound up being hit so hard that it forced the spin of the earth to reverse direction and we all go back in time to when Dinosaurs roamed the land and people like RotoGrinders probably touted that the Velociraptors arms were too short to be a good play.
LUIS CASTILLO
Basically copy and paste what I just wrote above, except technically Castillo would be ranked higher for me than McKenzie today despite being in a small park on a warm day and facing a team who when they make contact destroys his best pitch.
But I am banking on his best pitch being un-hittable at home today.
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THE OTHER WILD CARD …
KEEGAN THOMPSON
He should be considered today as we could see a weird Red Sox lineup. After being a hot team that I rode for a while the Red Sox have started to play some bad/tired Baseball. They return home tomorrow for a 4th of July game against the Tampa Bay Rays and will likely score 13 runs tomorrow, but outside of Devers who looks lost right now I actually don’t see anyone doing much here for Boston.
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OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
Yes, Jose Suarez is 5’11 and facing the Astros.
Ross Stripling was going to make my list but I decided to go full hyeena (Castillo) and crack addict (McKenzie) on my sleepers today. The Rays are hitting well and despite thinking the Jays are a lock to win, I just can’t pull that Stripper trigger today. I want upside with SP.
Framber Valdez is next in line to face the Angels and lefties do well vs them. But he isn’t as great at home and relies a lot on grounders to get the job done. I would honestly rather go Woody than him.
Ditto old man Charlie Morton
And we don’t use pitchers in Citi Field on Sunday’s and we definitely do not use Carlos Carrasco on Sunday’s.
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Nice little game stack Sunday.
ORIOLES vs TWINS
It’s warm enough in Target Field today and I will bet anyone that this game has more HR in it than any other game on the entire slate. The O’s RH heavy lineup gets Devin Smeltzer who has given up 7 HR (100%) to RHH this year and only has a 15% strikeout rate vs them. He should struggle with his fastball to keep it in the park vs the Mancini-Hays-Mountcastle trio and let us not sleep on Tyler Nevin/Jorge Mateo too.
But Minnesota is the team who has won two walk off games and I can’t see them waiting until the 9th to do damage. Tyler Wells is coming off his best start vs Seattle, walking none and only allowing 1 hit. He’s heavy Fastball/Change and if the Twins can get their timing right they should square him up in the first inning.
Update: NO BUXTON, which sucks but still like Twins.
RAYS & JAYS
Rays: Choi, Franco, Kiermaier
Jays: Springer, Moreno, Hernandez, Gurriel
The most likely hitters to do well for Tampa are Wander Franco and Ji-Man Choi but how do we not throw a bone at Ike Parades with the big heater he is on right now? Kevin Kiermaier does something magical today for Tampa too.
After losing both games of the DH yesterday with some long fly ball outs look for Toronto to rebound. It’s been a while since we had George Springer lead off dinger but most of the power off Shane Baz comes from RH bats. Toronto likely has to rely on the long ball to win today but that’s great for DFS.
RANGERS & METS
TEX: Seager, Lowe
NYM: Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, McCann
Sundays. Citi Field. Pete Alonso. Overs.
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The other game which has OVER Vibes: Marlins/Nationals
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Today’s BOOST+ Players …
Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yellich, Bryan De La Cruz, Ian Happ, Garrett Cooper, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Jesus Aguilar, Isaac Parades, Jarren Duran, Luke Maile.
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CATCHER
- Gabriel Moreno
- Gary Sanchez
- James McCann
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FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Jesus Aguilar
- Mike Moustaskas – A man without a real position, he is 3B on FD and 1B on DK, wish he was 3B on DK today.
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SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Isaac Parades
- Jonathan India
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THIRD BASE
There’s not much here which is an automatic like yesterday felt, however Ramirez/Devers are so consistent and in the case of both, very due for a HR or multi-HR game.
- Jose Ramirez
- Rafael Devers
- Tyler Nevin
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SHORTSTOP
This is by far the deepest position on today’s slate. Wander Franco and Carlos Correa are very nicely priced on DraftKings but Seager and Lindor to me are the keys to the Rangers/Mets game going over.
- Francisco Lindor
- Carlos Correa
- Corey Seager
- Wander Franco
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Trey Mancini
- George Springer
- Max Kepler
- Starling Marte
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Austin Hays
- Adolis Garcia
- Giancarlo Stanton
OUTFIELD – Value
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Jesus Sanchez
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Bryan De La Cruz
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The Dongers Club
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Trey Mancini – OF – Orioles
- Kevin Kiermaier – OF – Rays
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Jonathan India – 2B – Reds
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- James McCann – C – Mets
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- BONUS ………………….. George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
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CORE PLAYS
SP COMBO 1: Woodruff & Thompson
SP COMBO 2: McKenzie & Castillo
SP COMBO 3: Woodruff & Valdez
FanDuel SP: Woodruff, Castillo
Byron Buxton (or Kepler)
Trey Mancini
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BETTING PLAYS
Rangers/Mets OVER 8.5
Orioles/Twins OVER 8.5
Rays/Jays OVER 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays ML -132
Cleveland Guardians ML +140
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