Today’s MAIN slate for 4th of July is a 6PM slate. Yes, this is a horrible job by Rob Manfred as there are a couple teams who aren’t even playing today. Like, the Cardinals and Phillies couldn’t play one more game tonight at 6PM before a fireworks show? Lame.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings have 7 game slates. Oh, nice, you say. No, they’re not synchronized. FanDuel has included the Giants and Diamondbacks. DraftKings has said screw that game and included the second game of the Guardians vs Tigers double-header.
So this means Shane Bieber and Alex Faedo are in play on DraftKings, while on FanDuel you have Carlos Rodon and Madison Bumgarner.
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WEATHER
All clear and hot as hell in Cincinnati.
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There really isn’t much in the way of cheap pitching that could produce well today. Yesterday we saw just about every pitcher come out and have a really strong strikeout performance but today it’s more about riding the aces in most spots where they are facing bad offenses.
ALEK MANOAH
Very hard to lock in an 11k Manoah on FanDuel but he has very little risk against Oakland. This is a lineup that has a couple lefties but not the kind which I see giving him fits in this huge ballpark. Lock him in on DraftKings.
CHRIS FLEXEN
There are two big series in MLB which I have an odd narrative around. The Yanks/Red Sox and Dodgers/Padres. When those teams have a series I bet against them in their immediate game afterwards and that’s what we have with the Padres who managed to steal one vs the Dodgers yesterday and now return home, but still not hitting the ball very well. Jake Cronenworth is the only hitter who I think would take him deep.
SEAN MANAEA
Had an update on who was starting G2 for the Guardians, so we bump up Manaea in the same game with Flexen. He should get through 6-7 strong without much damage but I don’t think he gets any run support. Take the under and consider this a nice Mana-Mana slate.
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OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
Kyle Freeland is worthy of a dart on DraftKings. Riding my theory on the LAD/SD both losing tonight he would be the other arm to benefit from that.
On FanDuel I could see Bumgarner winding up with 25+ points but he won’t have the strikeouts to match Manoah or other options. I wouldn’t go here, but I expect a clean game.
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METS
It’s all about the Mets going into Cincinnati. It is highly unlikely that we will be able to use them in DFS tomorrow on the main slate with it being another early start time but this is the biggest park shift in Major League Baseball.
Yes, going from Citi Field to Great American Smallpark is bigger than going to Coors Field simply because the dimensions here are so much drastically smaller than Citi Field that Pete Alonso will just step into the box and automatically put a ball into the left field bleachers while also impregnating three women in Kentucky and 4 in Ohio.
Alonso, Lindor, Marte are all the logical picks here but we will have to get production from Nimmo, McNeil, Nido, Escobar and one of my favorite picks Canha. So figure out who else you are putting in your lineup and then fill it in with Mets today.
WHITE SOX
Jose Abreu, Luis Robert
Chicago is going to get Eloy Jimenez back soon and maybe Yasmani Grandal at some point as well. Not tonight, but the do or die time is coming for this team to finally turn things around and make a big second half push. Good temps helps, wind blowing in doesnt. Dylan Bundy does though.
BRAVES
Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna
Feels like the Braves have a long history of dominating the Cardinals at home and Dakota Hudson should have Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna licking their chops
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Today’s BOOST+ Players …
Will Smith, Trea Turner, Luke Voit, Darin Ruf, Ketel Marte, Mark Canha, Jeff McNeil, Gavin Sheets, Buddy Kennedy
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CATCHER
This is an ugly position and so Reese McGuire is our value option today that we should look at first.
- Reese McGuire
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Cal Raleigh
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FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Jose Abreu
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SECOND BASE
- Ketel Marte (FD)
- Jeff McNeil
- Brendan Rodgers
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THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Jose Ramirez
- Buddy Kennedy (FD)
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SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Carlos Correa
- Dylan Moore
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Luis Robert
- Max Kepler
- Brandon Nimmo
- Ronald Acuna Jr
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Starling Marte
- Brendan Donovan
OUTFIELD – Value
- Eddie Rosario IS BACK
- Gavin Sheets
- Alex Kiriloff
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The Dongers Club
- Pete Alonso – 1B – New York Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Mark Canha – OF – Mets
- Brandon Nimmo – OF – Mets
- Jeff McNeil – 2B – Mets
- Luis Robert – OF – White Sox
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
- Reese McGuire – C – White Sox
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- BONUS ……………. Ketel Marte – 2B – Diamondbacks
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CORE PLAYS
Alek Manoah (DK)
Full stack Mets
White Sox/Twins
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BETTING PLAYS
NY Mets -1.5
Mets/Reds OVER 9
Rockies & Mariners ML Parlay
Jays/Athletics UNDER 7
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