Through all the 2% Chairmen and winning slates there has been one major element that has evaded us this year and that would be these small 4 game afternoon slates. I think today we change that.
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WEATHER
Humid, but not that warm in Chicago however the winds are blowing 14 MPH out to right field.
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Naturally after a dumpster fire pitching slate where it literally didn’t matter (I cashed all FanDuel lineups with my pitchers and the winner of the 100k contest had Nick Pivetta there) who you went with as long as it wasn’t Yusei Kikuchi, it would figure that today on a short 4 game slate we have a handful of pitchers who grade well.
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SHANE BIEBER
Finally we have the Bieber against Tigers game in this series and the Guardians are going to avoid being swept out of Detroit. DCPA metrics against the Tigers lineup are .258 xWOBA, .341 xSLG and a 27% strike-out rate. Ride the Beebs today.
And for those who don’t remember, DCPA = Dongers Club Pitchtype Algo, which calculates the projected lineup and how well they should hit the specific pitchers pitch profiles.
JOSE BERRIOS
Speaking of avoiding sweeps, the Blue Jays are trying to avoid a sweep in Oakland and I could not love Jose Berrios more here. Yes, day games in Oakland can tend to play up but consider this a little opposite effect as I would even think there’s justification for Berrios on FanDuel here too.
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OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
Joe Ryan should match-up against a lefty short lineup like Chicago but his recent struggles have me concerned he can beat out the other guys on this slate. Plus the wind out to RF is a problem.
Yes, Corbin Burnes vs Chicago is a likely chalky play. He doesn’t quite have the K% projection upside that Bieber has and that $2400 difference between him and Berrios will feel like a waste when Berrios pitches a gem today.
Lance Lynn is always less appealing when he has a lefty lineup that can hit and with the wind blowing out to left plus the Twins hitting extremely well so far this week we will fade him.
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There isn’t one specific pitcher who is the main target above others on this slate. Michael Pineda, Adrian Sampson and James Kaprielian are all good enough to not serve up 6+ ER by themselves but all three are likely to give up some value today. So no, this is not a full stack one team slate even though it’s a short slate.
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The worst Bullpens right now to attack are
Oakland Athletics – 5.66 ERA over last month and high walk rates.
Detroit Tigers – They’ve been somewhat better in very recent spots but really have nothing between 6-8th innings before getting to Soto (who is due for a Blown Save IMO). Good chance Will Vest is used today and if he faces Jose Ramirez the ball will be gone.
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The best Weather/Stadium Combination on this slate for Home Runs
Twins at White Sox
Cubs at Brewers
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Overall Exposure Rankings
- Milwaukee Brewers … Tellez / Yelich / Wong
- Guardians … Ramirez / Reyes / Rosario
- Twins/White Sox … Lefties (Kepler/Kiriloff/Polanco) … (Sheets)
- Blue Jays … Vladdy
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Today’s BOOST+ Players …
Franmil Reyes, Cavan Biggio, Sheldon Neuse
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CATCHER
Not really looking to spend much here on DraftKings and won’t use anyone from C on FanDuel. So pending lineups the top pick here could change if we have a good value option.
- Omar Narvaez
- Ryan Jeffers
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FIRST BASE
After a day off last night look for Vladdy Jr to play today and homer.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Rowdy Tellez
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SECOND BASE
Kolten Wong is a much better lead off hitter, but they continue to hit Yelich lead off. Either way, let’s get it on, bang a gong, get it on with Kolten Wong
- Kolten Wong
- Andres Gimenez
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THIRD BASE
Who I, and likely the entire world, is using at 3B today is not up for debate.
- Jose Ramirez
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SHORTSTOP
- Amed Rosario
- Bo Bichette
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Max Kepler
- Christian Yelich
- George Springer
- Andrew McCutchen
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Gavin Sheets
- Franmil Reyes
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The Dongers Club
- Kolten Wong – 2B – Milwaukee Brewers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Toronto
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Gavin Sheets – OF – White Sox
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
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CORE PLAYS
Shane Bieber / Jose Berrios
Kolten Wong
Jose Ramirez
Gavin Sheets
While I am not using Burnes, we also do not need to force in a ‘leverage’ play. The pivot is more that there are other good pitching choices who will deliver and the $ discount on Berrios is what I am riding.
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BETTING PLAYS
ML Parlay: Blue Jays, Guardians, Brewers
Twins/White Sox No Runs First Inning
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