Round 3 – Dongers Club Appreciation Contest. Click Below To Enter
Tonight’s Rule: You cannot use a pitcher 9k or higher in the contest!
https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/128781026
News & Notes: The White Sox and Guardians have a DH today with the second game not being on FanDuel’s slate. Neither site has forced us to Pirates-Marlins for the second night in a row either so it is 13 games on FanDuel and 14 on DraftKings.
UPDATE: Try this link if the above one isn’t working of DM me on twitter @steve_renner
[spacer height=”20px”]
WEATHER
SEA @ WSH: Slight storm chances between Mariners and Nationals but the game will play. They did after all play in a monsoon a couple years ago when the Mariners last came to DC.
BAL @ CHC: Wind out to RF but under 10 mph
CIN @ NYY: Storm chances
[spacer height=”20px”]
We are now into Hurricane Season and so it figures that everyone down in Tampa is boarding up because of the return of damaging storms and people coming into their city to cause havok.
Of course I mean Chris Sale returning to the bump and being down in Tampa today where who knows what he will destroy after he gives up a 2-out grand slam to some random Ray like Yu Chang. Normally if Sale were Sale I would lock and load him vs Tampa, but not yet. Not yet….
I then think we have a big mix of big name arms who are all going to just go out and do their job today without getting ripped up but also not dominating with a 10k performance. This list includes Cole, Strider, Cease and Webb. Cease is the interesting ones as we might try to get a good read on that 2nd game of the doubleheader and I think it is to both his advantage that he is going in the 2nd one after Beiber is pitching for Cleveland in the first one.
I am once again not on the Strider train, so you can probably assume he will throw up 20 strikeouts after my horrific fade of him last week (which actually wasn’t that bad because my guys did great, but, well, he did much better clearly).
The rest are all blah and all okay, but on tonight’s slate. Blah and Okay is exactly what we want.
[spacer height=”20px”]
DYLAN CEASE (DK: 9,700)
Cease has the angry narrative since he was a MAJOR all-star snub. I know Cleveland isn’t a big strikeout team but I believe they’ll win the first game and then Chicago comes back and takes the second game in two low scoring affairs at The Jake (Progressive Field).
MITCH WHITE (DK: $7,800, FD: $6,900)
White is pitching well, the model likes him and he should see a heavy RH lineup which thus far has been to his benefit in a large way. Goldy remains a little bit in a funk so if he can keep him quiet then White should do his usual 5 inning start with 6 strikeouts and limited damage.
GERRIT COLE (DK: $10,500, FD: $10,600)
The Reds have been shot up the K% rankings over the last 10 days but a good amount of that is based upon their match-ups lately. Tonight isn’t any easier and if the storms don’t mess up the timing here Cole should be able to lead the way in scoring on FanDuel tonight. DK he can be passed over initial builds because I like Cease more.
VALUE ARMS
JORDAN LYLES
All of Baseball is foaming over the season that Julio Rodriguez is having for the Mariners and yes, he is having a great season. So too is Bobby Witt who has been better than Julio defensively and is filling up just as many stat columns in a fine rookie season despite not being as flashy. Neither of them though are doing what Adley Rutstchman has done with this Orioles pitching staff and he deserves credit for that.
Lyles is one guy who is benefiting and he has turned into a good pitcher vs RHB this season, plus the Cubs have 4 to 5 hitters in their lineup who chase sliders a good amount so I believe we get a 6 inning and 6 strikeout performance with limited damage (Ian Happ homer) from Lyles.
GLENN OTTO
Our final longshot pitcher options come down to Brieske and Otto, two guys who are facing bad teams today. I give the slight nod to Otto as I can’t see Oakland having another huge game tonight. This is really not a main lineup play but someone who we hope can give us 12-13 points.
[spacer height=”20px”]
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
Luis H. Garcia (HOU) … Like most Houston pitchers, Garcia strikes out more batters at home and gives up less runs on the road. I am still trying to nail down a specific conspiracy related to this but it just seems to be the way the match-ups break down. Tonight he has the luxury of facing the Angels for strike-out boost, but given that he doesn’t do that as much on the road I think we can consider him a fade at his big price.
[spacer height=”20px”]
BREWERS (& TWINS)
Yelich, Tellez … Kepler, Polanco
Yelich Scratched, insert McCutchen for him instead. Still like the over in this game but thats a big bat to be out for Milwaukee.
Love the game up in Target Field tonight. Yelich and Tellez are impossible outs for Winder and the wind is helping them heavy out to RF today. This is one of those inter-league series where we expect lots of runs to be put up on the board.
RANGERS
Seager, Semien, Smith, Lowe, Heim
Corey Seager is in his groove at home and for only $5,000 as the highest priced Ranger it’s very hard not to anchor a lineup around him and his teammates. As a team they have a near .500 xSLG vs Kaprielian and the Athletics bullpen is one of the worst in Baseball.
NATIONALS (& Mariners)
Soto, Bell, Ruiz, Cruz
After we rode Flexen the nuts to a big game, he gets a VERY bad spot in warm Nats Park tonight. I expect a good amount of offense in this game much like the Brewers/Twins one so the Mariners will have a one off hitter or two do extremely well also.
[spacer height=”20px”]
OTHER GAME THOUGHTS
Blue Jays – This will be a bullpen game for the Phillies, but I don’t know if the Phinatic made the trip or not. I’m pretty sure he isn’t vaccinated because what in the world kind of vaccine do you give that creature? Anyways, the Jays don’t feel like they’ll just magically flip a switch back at home tonight after being out west but it is a bullpen game so the potential is there.
With the change from Gausman to Berrios I like the Castellanos/Schwarber combo for Philly a good amount too.
Tigers/Royals – I think there are runs in this game and the lean should be on the Tigers side but both Bullpens are blah and coming off a double-header.
[spacer height=”20px”]
Today’s BOOST+ Players …
Will Smith, JD Martinez, Bobby Witt Jr, Riley Greene, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, Giancarlo Stanton, Max Kepler, Darin Ruf, Javier Baez, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Dansby Swanson
Best DCPA Boost:
Robbie Grossman, Javier Baez, Francisco Mejia, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Bart, Ketel Marte, Alex Kiriloff, Cedric Mullins.
[spacer height=”20px”]
CATCHER
- Will Smith
- Jonah Heim
- Jorge Alfaro
- Alejandro Kirk
[spacer height=”20px”]
FIRST BASE
- Rowdy Tellez
- Josh Bell
- Nate Lowe
- Hunter Dozier
[spacer height=”20px”]
SECOND BASE
- DJ LeMahieu
- Jorge Polanco (Arraez on FD for $600 cheaper just as fine but less HR potential)
- Yu Chang
[spacer height=”20px”]
THIRD BASE
- Eugenio Suarez
- Manny Machado – $5100 for Machado in Coors, just stupid. Should be $6,000.
- Emmanuel Rivera
[spacer height=”20px”]
SHORTSTOP
Deepest position tonight.
- Corey Seager
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Javier Baez
- Carlos Correa
[spacer height=”20px”]
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Tucker … Tucker has destroyed the Angels in Anaheim in his entire career and should do that again tonight.
Christian Yelich- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Max Kepler
- Juan Soto
[spacer height=”20px”]
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ian Happ
- Nicholas Castellanos
- Riley Greene
- Charlie Blackmon
[spacer height=”20px”]
OUTFIELD – VALUE
- Alex Kiriloff
- Eloy Jimenez
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Josh H Smith
[spacer height=”20px”]
The Dongers Club
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Mariners
- Ian Happ – OF – Cubs
- Hunter Dozier – 1B – Royals
- Yu Chang – 2B – Rays
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- Will Smith – C – Dodgers
- BONUS ……………. Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Brewers
[spacer height=”20px”]
CORE PLAYS
1B – Rowdy Tellez
SS – Corey Seager
OF – Kyle Tucker
OF – Max Kepler
[spacer height=”20px”]
BETTING PLAYS
Mariners/Nationals OVER 9.5
Brewers/Twins OVER 9
Tigers/Royals OVER 9
Padres ML
Astros ML
Orioles ML
Reds +1.5
[spacer height=”20px”]