Monday brings to us an 11 game MAIN slate with a lot of balance on it.
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WEATHER
Some games will have storm/delay potential tonight but all are VERY low on the risk scale
Braves at Phillies – The one game with SP that are in consideration
Rays at Orioles
Angels at Royals
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There is no ‘free square’ or easy button SP today against a bad opponent. Yes, Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers are going to be chalk given that they are heavy favorites vs the poor Nationals (who just won) but this doesn’t feel like a game where you must have Gonsolin given the Nationals lack of strikeout upside and also that the Dodgers probably shouldn’t push Gonsolin too far.
SEAN MANAEA
The only reason on avoiding Manaea today is that the Tigers are staying home from Sunday to Monday while the Padres were in New York for the late game last night, but that shouldn’t be an impact on his performance specifically because no sane team would have kept him in New York last night, right? I certainly hope they aren’t that dumb.
Anyways, that’s the only risk here, the Tigers are an otherwise middle of the road opponent for Manaea who can get deeper than normal given their low walk rates.
JT BRUBAKER
With the wind blowing in at Wrigley we go there to see who wants to play Pirates/Cubs pitcher roulette tonight and I am on the Buccos arm. Everything about these two is very similar except when Brubaker is on he can have 20-30% strike-out rates while Sampson at best is going to K 4 maybe 5 Pirates if he is pitching long enough. Gimme the J.T. Brubaker law offices to steal this traffic court case of a game.
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Update – Merrill Kelly will now start for Arizona.
We’ll need to see how the Giants react to this but he’s just like everyone else on this slate which is Blah, but I would give him the nod as the third best option.
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Other Options
Max Fried and Nick Pivetta were all in consideration for me today but Fried at 10.5 with some weather challenges – and since he can’t get Realmuto out – should not top Manaea today and I can’t trust a single thing related to Boston right now so no thank you on Pivetta.
If you want to bad pitchers who could pitch well tonight, Kyle Freeland and Noah Syndergaard are those guys. But, gross…
Ranger Suarez is the other contrarian pitcher I would touch. The Braves have the third highest GB% on the slate which plays well into his game. Unfortunately that Dansby Swanson guy is gonna take him yardwork tonight, but a 7 strikeout game is likely. Consider his K prop if not using in DFS.
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The mistake tonight is thinking that because there is no clear cut dominant pitcher that there are a bunch of dominant stacks. That is not the case. The pitching is very balanced and mediocre, but not horrible and the offenses aren’t necessarily going to just go off. It’s my favorite kinda build night. A 3-2-2 or 3-2-1-1-1 type slate.
MARINERS (vs Rangers)
Julio Rodriguez*, Ty France, Jesse Winker, Cal Raleigh
You are looooking liiiiive, at my favorite DFS game of the night as two below average RHP settle in to see who can piss me off more. Yep, Glenn Otto-matic walk and Chris Flexen deez nutz are both capable of good starts from time to time but I don’t see either coming through here. It’s a re-match of the game we loaded up on before the ASB and I see no reason to not like it again.
A sneaky aspect on this game tonight is the weather. The roof likely is going to be open on a clear night with temps in the low 80’s, very rare in Seattle and the humidity isn’t that bad either. So we want to start with this game even though it means waiting until the end of the night for most of your offense.
J-Rod is questionable nursing a sore wrist but I believe he will return tonight and is ok to use.
RAYS
B.Lowe, J.Lowe, J.Choi
Dear Kevin Cash, can you consult me in the future when you face the Royals pitchers? Hopefully he isn’t too cute tonight as with Austin Voth we should get the Lowe’s in the lineup and Mr. Camden Ji-Man Choi as well. Wind is slightly out to right and the Humidity (the biggest element in Camden Yards historically) is very high tonight for this game.
No fewer than 2 HR from Tampa please. Elevate the ball boys.
Braves vs Phillies
Solid one off game. Bohm, Hoskins and Realmuto vs Swanson, d’Arnaud and Arcia. Wait, … lemme do some math here. Oh, that’s six guys. Yeah fine, you can stack this one.
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Top Boost+ Players:
Shohei Ohtani, Alec Bohm, JP Crawford, Kyle Lewis, Michael Stefanic, Nick Pratto, Jake Splish Splash Lamb, Josh Lowe, Joey Bart
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CATCHER
Welcome to a Catcher Monday slate ladies and gentlemen! Realmuto and d’Arnaud should square off tonight as elite one offs, Bart is the top value Catcher one off and then we have stack options from the rest with Mejia, Raleigh and Jonah Heim.
- JT Realmuto
- Travis d’Arnaud … My two favorite all time catcher in ballpark matchups are JP Arencibia in Camden Yards and TDA in Philly. For those who don’t know, Arencibia does TV now for the Marlins and he had an all time great pull yesterday in the Marlins-Pirates game. They were talking about Jane Seymour who threw out the first pitch. She’s well beyond cougar stage at this point but the reference was of course that she was in Wedding Crashers. So when they showed the highlight of it, JP chimed in with a nice “Hey that’s Kitty Cat” reference. A+ JP… A+….
The rest of the Monday Catchers Club
- Joey Bart – Road Catcher in Chase
- Francisco Mejia
- Cal Raleigh / Jonah Heim – Stack options
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FIRST BASE
Live look at Ji-Man Choi when he lands at BWI Airport on his way to Camden Yards…
- Ji-Man Choi
- Freddie Freeman
- Ty France
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SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Andres Gimenez
- Orlando Arcia
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THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado … Ignore what I wrote about the Padres getting in late above because Manny is the sneaky winner tonight. This is a position I think is going to have some bad chalk at it. Gimme Manny to have a 4 hit game in Comerica.
- Eugenio Suarez
- Josh Rojas
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SHORTSTOP
Swanson is the steak tonight, Seager is the chicken. You really can’t go wrong with either and should enjoy your dinner one way or another.
- Dansby Swanson
- Corey Seager
- JP Crawford
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Julio Rodriguez
- Hunter Renfroe – Locked in and gets another LHP tonight.
- Jesse Winker
- Cedric Mullins
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Juan Soto
- Yordan Alvarez (Late add to article)
- Adolis Garcia
- Randy Arozarena
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Kole Calhoun
- Josh Lowe
- Kyle Lewis
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- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Dansby Swanson – SS – Braves
- Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Brewers
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Ji-Man Choi – 1B – Rays
- BONUS …………………. Travis d’Arnaud – C – Braves
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CORE PLAYS
Brandon Lowe
Manny Machado
2 from Mariners/Rangers
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RANDOM THOUGHTS
Yes, I know Greinke and Junis are both pitching tonight. Yes, I know you can SP stack them on DraftKings. I am fully aware of this, stop tempting me to get drunk damnit.
If you do two lineups today, one should be entirely late slate hitters IMO. The Dodgers are likely a chalky team as are Giants/Diamondbacks, and the Mariners/Rangers game to me is your late night hammer pivot.
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BETTING PLAYS
Rays/Orioles OVER 8.5
Red Sox ML -107 … They suck in the division and win outside the division.
Rockies/Brewers UNDER 8.5
Astros + Mariners ML Parlay
Ranger Suarez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts
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