WEATHER
Giants at Twins – Storms, could be off and on throughout game. Hitters worth the risk.
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This is very much a ‘Tiers’ kind of night on DraftKings. Finding the right pitchers within tiers. There are Five guys 9k and up and 9 guys from 7k to 8900 on DraftKings.
Out of the guys in that second tier, I like … None of them. Maybe a Sonny Gray ($8,400) or Zach Plesac (7,600). The chalk is probably going to end up being Domingo German (7,100) who is coming off a great start at home and I want no part of him tonight.
This sets up as either take two guys in the top tier (who I like below) or one and a cheap/punt value SP2. The mid range should not burn us tonight by fading them.
CHARLIE MORTON
At this stage in the season Morton is not likely to have a blow up start and with Nolan Arenado being out on paternity leave to tend to the future next great Nolan Jr, we have a case where Morton can avoid someone driving in Goldy after he pitches around him tonight.
Yes, the Cards will bring in more LHB but Morton should be able to handle them with his curve-ball tonight.
YU DARVISH
Yu is coming off paternity leave as well. Assuming that Darvish doesn’t pitch with his head somewhere else tonight he should deliver 7 innings with 10+ strikeouts vs Kansas City. His depth of pitches is going to give them issues and if you are worried about long lay-off with Darvish (9 days) he went 7 innings and struck out 9 vs the much better Mets after the all-star break.
He should be just fine.
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VALUE ARMS
DANIEL LYNCH
I am never opposed to taking risk for upside when it comes to cheap arms. Daniel Lynch is exactly that. If Lynch can work his slider for some swing and misses against Machado (25% K rate on Sliders) and Brandon Drury (41% K rate on sliders) then it sets up that he can stick with Darvish and have a great night.
Lynch’s last five starts he has given up 3 ER, 0 ER, 4 ER, 0 ER and 3 ER…. So hey, I went to 3rd grade, that means 0 ER is next… Right?
PAOLO ESPINO
Everyone tonight is fairly high priced on DraftKings for what they can provide, so it’s not a bad slate to consider a value SP2. Nationals SP never win but the Reds offense is not to be ignored as a target. For fairly cheap we can get 5 IP out of Espino and take a 12-14 DK ceiling here. It’s rare that I consider that a reasonable option but tonight it’s in play.
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For the Vegas totals crowd there are no games over 8.5 tonight… A good reason why is you have a ton of crafty/pitch to soft contact type guys who will avoid coming out and giving up 4 HR tonight.
It’s definitely a slate to look for a team who can string together quality AB for crooked innings today.
WHITE SOX
Oh Draft Kings you tempt me with a damn good time. I normally shy away from a 7pm Saturday night game in Chicago, the vision is worse at that time of day there, but the Chi Sox actually look like they should beat up on Merrill Kelly tonight and the prices. Oh those prices are so tempting.
- Andrew Vaughn
- Eloy Jimenez
- Jose Abreu
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GUARDIANS
Two low scoring games to start this series and now I want to attack Luis Castillo? You bet your ass I do. The highest xWOBA tonight is the Guardians vs Castillo.
- Josh Naylor
- Oscar Gonzalez
- Jose Ramirez
- Steven Kwan
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Other teams who will do well: Nationals, Astros, Tigers
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CATCHER
- Keibert Ruiz
- Victor Caratini
- Seby Zavala
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FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Luke Voit
- Josy Naylor
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SECOND BASE
- Willi Castro (DK)
- Andres Gimenez
- DJ LeMahieu
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THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Jose Ramirez
- Jeimer Candelario
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SHORTSTOP
- Amed Rosario
- Javier Baez – Ice cold but likely chalky vs Keuchel
- CJ Abrams
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Yordan Alvarez
- Hunter Renfroe
- Eloy Jimenez
- Andrew Vaughn
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Steven Kwan
- Starling Marte
- Seiya Suzuki
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Romy Gonzalez
- Oscar Gonzalez
- Nelson Cruz
- Riley Greene
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- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- DJ LeMahieu – 2B – Yankees
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Chicago Cubs
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Brewers
- Josh Naylor – 1B – Guardians
- CJ Abrams – SS – Nationals
- Vic Caratini – C – Brewers
- Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox
- BONUS ………… Luke Voit – 1B – Nationals
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CORE PLAYS
Austin Riley
Oscar Gonzalez
Eloy Jimenez
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BETTING PLAYS
Tigers/Rangers OVER 8
Nationals -138 ML
White Sox -106 ML
Astros / White Sox / Mets ML Parlay