And the NFL is back, just like that.
For those of you new to The Ambush NFL article I do each week, welcome and we hope you are ready to find a better path to making decisions each week. My approach with doing NFL DFS analysis tries to stay similar to MLB large slates in that I won’t come out here writing up notes on 8 to 10 Quarterbacks each week.
I went out this off-season and added Dennis Roy’s NFL Dawg House to our package here because Dennis covers all the information for every game and every team throughout the week and his article goes in depth covering who should be on your radar for Cash and giving out some of his own GPP picks along the way.
The great thing about NFL is that much like MLB you can win building many different ways. I prefer FanDuel slightly over DraftKings for the Main Slates because with only 0.5 point per reception scoring and a little more flat pricing structure you tend to get scores that are more evenly balanced. So a player who catches 4 passes for 50 yards and a touchdown on FanDuel for $6800 is going to be in the same ballpark as a $5200 guy who catches 7 balls for 103 yards and no touchdowns. On DraftKings the 5200 guy scored more. On FanDuel they’re even and thus the margins for error are smaller.
Annual Contest Selection Reminders
Size Matters
NFL DFS is not about Single Entry vs Multi-Entry. I don’t want you all to be those people who cry about others who have 150 lineups and they can just MME everything out there. Let them go swim in their pools of chasing the Milli-Maker and Live Final seats on the contests that have 35,000 entries in them and we can swim against them as well.
Where you are losing money is entering a ‘Single Entry’ contest with 3,000 of your closest friends and wondering why you can’t do more than 1.75x your money.
You don’t need to be worried about someone elses 3rd or 30th lineup beating you. You need to be in a scenario where you aren’t having to beat out too many people.
Find a contest that is sub 500 entries. Preferred if you can find under ~250 entries. Be willing to SPEND more money to pay a higher $ contest with less users than piss away 4 weeks of entries on a contest with too many people in it.
MY 2022 Season Predictions
Please reference back to these if you want and you can troll me all you want. I am putting these down now so that you know where my head is at for at least the first month of the season on what I am expecting out of teams.
NFC East: Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Commanders
I am not as big of a believer in the Giants offense as others and I am not expecting the Eagles to dominate but they are definitively the best team here. Giants/Commanders could be inter-changable.
NFC North: No fucking clue.
Honestly I don’t love the Packers, I want to say the Bears are sneaky good and the Lions are most certainly going to win 5+ games but the Vikings hype is too fast for them to suddenly come out and steal the division cleanly. So rather than make a wrong pick for you, I’m giving you the honest answer.
NFC South: Tampa will not win this division.
If the Panthers get lucky with health this season they could win 8 games and be a sleeper here. The Falcons clearly have no intent on being that sleeper team and the Bucs are just not a great roster.
NFC West: Rams, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks
Seattle will win 1 road game all season if they are lucky and go .500 at home. The Niners are going to struggle and the Cardinals will do something stupid to allow the Rams to win this division with 10 wins.
AFC East: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets
The Bills are going to start the season 12-0.
AFC North: Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Steelers
Browns and Steelers are better than 3rd/4th place teams from most divisions but this is a loaded division once again.
AFC South: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Texans
We never talk about the AFC South unless it’s a Thursday Night Football game and for good reason. Boring as hell.
AFC West: Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers
Neither the Broncos or Chargers make the playoffs.
Quick Seasonal Predictions
- AFC Championship: Ravens vs Bills — Futures bets on both to win the conference
- NFC Championship: Wide open, I have no futures bets here yet.
- Davante Adams leads the league in receptions and sets a new seasonal record for catches in a season
- These three guys are going to be the Mt. Rushmore of ‘Cash/SE/Floor’ plays every week assuming their prices stay reasonable. This means they’ll go out and get you a solid floor every week at a balanced price
- RB – Joe Mixon
- WR – Michael Pittman
- TE – TJ Hockenson
- NFL MVP: Yes, it’s Josh Allen.
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In years past the article has always come out on Saturday afternoons. This season I am likely shifting that to either Saturday evenings or early Sunday Mornings. We start it out this week on Sunday morning for the first time and I can already tell you I am a fan of this shift — but this is TBD.
INJURY UPDATES
Everyone who was really expected to be cleared is cleared.
George Kittle is Likely OUT for the 49ers
Allen Lazard is OUT for the Packers
WEATHER
Jacksonville @ Washington – Rainy and Humid. The worst field in the league gets rain week one.
San Francisco @ Chicago – Rainy.
New England @ Miami – 91 degrees
No major winds anywhere to worry about.
Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
Week 1, there should be no look ahead spots at all but could there be a team or two who maybe just comes out flat against an opponent they shouldn’t be flat against?
No.
These are my five things that I want you to walk away from this article with. They are the ‘Ambush’ plays and these are designed to be difference makers that can be plugged into a lineup or bet to turn a solid profit.
#1. AND WE’RE THE TWO BEST FRIENDS THAT ANYONE COULD HAVE …
Let’s start by taking a look at Aaron Rodgers as he gazes out the window through the rain on their flight (or bus?) home to Green Bay and he has just handed the ball off 30 times while reading that Derek Carr threw it 45 times and over 20 of those went to Davante Adams, his former pal.
To me Davante Adams is going to wind up contesting the record for most receptions in a season given the 17th game, their chances of being in high scoring games and the lack of balance on this offense.
It’s Adams, Renfroe, Waller and that’s it. Maybe a bone to Josh Jacobs every once and a while but there’s no reason to think that Carr — who is entering his 9th season in the league — is going to ignore the gift he was given by re-uniting with Adams and not pepper him over and over and over again. Yeah, the Chargers defense can get after you, but I’ll take Adams likely getting 15 targets any day of the week and throw on top his lower ownership than Justin Jefferson and we’re locked in on our first Ambush play of the season.
The Ambush: Adams over Jefferson, with a little side of Derek Carr as well.
Side Note:
Both Jefferson and Adams play at 4PM, so if you are feeling VERY confident and just want to take the chalk, you can pivot to Jefferson, or you let it ride with Adams.
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#2. YESTERDAY’S PRICE … IS NOT TODAY’S PRICE …
Lamar. Demeatrice. Jackson. Jr.
I feel like I have seen this movie play out before and it ends with the Quarterback having the season of his lifetime and getting paid when he probably shouldn’t have gotten paid that much – but how do you say no? Lamar is my QB who I think is going to ball out, and the Ravens are somehow my team that can contend with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC (not sure how that math will add up but check back later).
That all begins this week with Lamar not so quietly on the field showing the Ravens that they shoulda went ahead and paid him.
The Ambush: Above all else, when picking a QB on an Island to go off this week, it’s Lamar Demeatrice, Show me the Money, Jackson.
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#3. RETURN OF THE BACKS?? …
Looking back upon the 2021 season and to some extent 2020 it was clear that the dominance in the league had shifted to the WR position so much so that we really didn’t sweat out the RB spot that much. I think that’s gonna change here in 2022 and not just for the first month when it always feels like RB dominate.
Barkley, McCaffrey, Henry, Kamara to name a few. These were all elite options who just got shunned upon too much for the new golden WR toys leaping up in drafts. In seasonal, that’s all fine and good.
In DFS though, we shouldn’t ignore these four Mt. Rushmore elite talented backs. Oh, we haven’t gotten to Jonathan Taylor vs Houston, Dalvin Cook vs the Packers and other valuable plays like Najee Harris, Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb.
Running Back is very deep in Week 1 and the ground game should be trusted early.
The Ambush: RB in the Flex
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#4. BETS of the WEEK: DOGS AND UNDERS …
Scoring is expected to be up in 2022. There’s going to be early emphasis on defensive fouls and that likely only helps to extend drives. But early in the season I find it to be more beneficial to look for two things when placing bets. Who are the dogs and where are those unders?
Since 2009, Divisional Home Dogs are something like 13-4 ATS and this is a trend I have wrote about for three years in a row now. Whenever I see a home divisional dog — especially something like 7 points in week one I take the dog ATS. Everyone is prepared in Week 1 and generally everyone is healthy. So the gap between Houston and Indianapolis is not a touchdown and certainly not with Houston being at home.
Dogs who can bark
- Texans vs Colts
- Falcons vs Saints
- Vikings vs Packers
The Ambush: Two Divisional Dogs cover, one wins.
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#5. THE AMBUSH PLATOON
“Operation Anytime Touchdown”
This should end up being my new favorite section or a great spot for you to poke fun at me and this will end up being the equivalent of ‘The Dongers Club’ but for NFL.
These are going to be my five ‘Anytime Touchdown’ picks for the week. A mix of players who are my ‘CORE’ plays along with the sneaky under the radar or longshot calls.
They won’t always be necessarily just spots to use in DFS. I would look at playing the anytime TD scorer props on these plays because in DFS it’s more about how they fit within your lineup to justify using them and if I feel they should be in your lineup they will be in the positional pool below.
Not all five members of the Ambush Platoon are studs, and in fact I will be focused on limiting it to just two main DFS studs that are in the Platoon with the other 3 being value or longshot types (WR3, TE, RB2 type guys). If a QB is mentioned that means he is predicted to have a rushing TD.
The Ambush ‘Anytime Touchdown’ Platoon:
- Davante Adams – WR – Raiders … Platoon Sargaent
- Lamar Jackson – QB – Ravens
- Tyler Boyd – WR – Bengals
- Quez Watkins – WR – Eagles
- Donte Harty – WR – Saints
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THE AMBUSH PLAY …
LAMAR JACKSON
LJ comes in as my number one overall QB this week when just considering his ceiling and applicability across all the different sites and game formats.
I ALSO LIKE …
DEREK CARR
Carr is my top QB this week to correlate with a single WR and that would be Mr. Davante Adams. The other side of this game offers up a couple key players who I think should be highly considered in correlation stacks that I’ll touch on below (Ekeler & Allen)
Yes, I drank a lot of Wine this past week, but I honestly believe in …
MITCH TRUBISKY
The only correlation with Trubisky is going to be having 3 additional players from this same game. He obviously won’t pull a Lamar here and do it all himself so you should be wise to include Friermuth, rookie George Pickens or even Harris who caught a bunch of check downs vs the Bengals last year from Ben.
Let us not forget, the Bengals are still lining up Eli Apple on the outside.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
As usual I do not care about chalk when it comes to the QB position with NFL but I’m not considering Murray or Mahomes at all. You have two teams who are going to have to find running games and also find some better defensive production. That game screams Field Goal fest.
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
AUSTIN EKELER
Mr Ekeler torched the Raiders a season ago and his potential ownership with so many good RB plays this week makes him the most appealing of the bunch. I trust Ekeler as a home favored RB to get into the box and compile 100+ total yards with plenty of catches too. He’s getting 20+ on DK.
DALVIN COOK
Yes there is a ‘pivot’ factor off Justin Jefferson here. But the point here is that Cook and the ground game is still too good to be ignored, new coaching direction aside and there’s no reason for us to not like Cook early in the season when he is fresh and hasn’t got his usual injury bug.
I ALSO LIKE …
JOE MIXON … Love me some Mixon this season in DFS. He’s going to be the most consistent cash game RB all season long in my mind. With this passing attack around him and the style the Bengals play he should be getting 70-85 rushing yards with high probability of a TD and plenty of targets to justify his usage almost every week. This week is certainly no different. Load up on the Bro.
AJ DILLON … Green Bay is no doubt a running team and the two headed monster of Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon is good enough behind a solid offensive line to win them plenty of games. This could easily turn into the most tilting decision each week between Jones and Dillon, but I believe Dillon is the safe red zone option. He is a great FD play.
DERRICK HENRY … The Giants ranked 27th in YPG and 21st in RushTD last season while the Titans are welcoming back Henry as their entire offense. Hard to not expect Henry to have a solid floor game this week.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
SAQUON BARKLEY
Everywhere you turn people are in love with Barkley because of the coaching change. I am one who never felt that Brian Daboll was anything special related to his time with the Bills and they’re gonna prove that even more this year.
So what has really made Barkley suddenly back into what we thought he was years ago? Absolutely nothing and the Titans aren’t a team who is just going to roll over on defense vs the run. Hard pass for me.
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
DAVANTE ADAMS
Adams will finish the season as the #1 WR in fantasy and that begins this week.
MICHAEL PITTMAN
Every season in the NFL Week 1 there is a value option who is just too hard to ignore. Matt Ryan has always preferred the taller receivers and Pittman should profile into that role for him as the guy who catches 6 for 70 every single game.
DEVONTA SMITH
A.J. Brown is nice and all, but last I checked Smith is still an elite route runner and elite route runners should have their way against Detroit’s secondary. I like Smith more on DK than on FanDuel but would be okay honestly on both sites. I look for Hurts to throw 2 TD this week (and rush 0), one to Smith and one to Watkins.
I ALSO LIKE …
MARQUISE BROWN … Hollywood has the speed to pay off and should be able to get the majority of shots for the Arizona offense while Hopkins (and Moore) are out. Yes the coverage can shift over him more but this isn’t someone who needs a ton of catches to pay off.
MICHAEL THOMAS … Thomas isn’t going to come out in week one and roll up his 2019 self but you don’t need that. You just need Jameis Winston to play with the fear of God if he doesn’t target Mike early and often and Mike will come through. I worry about the Saints in the red zone week one so I do not think he gets into the box, but much like Pittman his price and volume will make him a solid play.
RASHOD BATEMAN … Give me Bateman over Andrews for a correlation with Lamar Jackson based on salary. Lamar will be determined to hit a big play to a WR in this game.
TYLER BOYD … Boyd scoring a 7 yard touchdown is one of my ‘gut’ calls of the week. Boyd has had some good games vs Pittsburgh historically and you can easily do a Mixon-Boyd stack from the Bengals if this one is shooting out as I suspect it can.
THE DK BARGIN BIN …
GEORGE PICKENS … It will not be long until Pickens is no doubt the #1 WR in Pittsburgh. He is the most talented option and should draw the favorable outside coverage this week.
JOSHUA PALMER … A great weapon in a likely shootout.
MARVIN JONES JR … Trevor Lawrence was very close to making my list for QB to look at, but I am going to anticipate it takes him a month or so to finally get going. That said, MJJ to me is going to out perform Christian Kirk who everyone else wants to hype up this week.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Justin Jefferson
Adam Theilen still exists and Dalvin Cook is going to get his share despite what the fantasy media wants to churn down your throats.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY …
PAT FREIERMUTH
Major boost if Diontae Johnson is indeed out and/or limited – although he says he will go. Preferred on FD as a pivot off Dallas Goedert chalk in the same range.
I ALSO LIKE …
TRAVIS KELCE … Let me be very clear here. Kelce is the top choice on DraftKings and The Muth is the top pick on FD. For sub 7k we have Kelce without Tyreek Hill in the picture anymore and how is he not going to have 9 catches for 90 yards?
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Kyle Pitts
New Orleans has gone from very deep in the secondary to a little dicey there but the Falcons have literally zero other options that will warrant Marshon Lattimore’s time in this game.
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Defense all comes down to price or just eating chalk between the two sites.
DraftKings Defenses
Chicago Bears – $2200 … Trey Lance for all his hype is still a ‘rookie’ and does not have George Kittle and will be in rainy conditions. I’ll bite on the Bears, who I think win.
Tennessee Titans – $3500 … Daniel Jones is still Daniel Jones
Carolina Panthers – $3400 … Could be a sleeper defense if they stay healthy
FanDuel Defenses
Chicago Bears – $3800
Philadelphia Eagles – $4100
Miami Dolphins – $3800
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Tyreek Hill?
Is this nothing more than the world seeing a player vs Bill Belichek and running away scared? I don’t love buying into guys in new spots in their first game but something about Reek here reminds me of Clinton Portis in his first game in Washington and he went bananas. Tyreek taking one or two to the house as Bill just grumbles on the sideline in a stadium New England usually struggles in feels right, does it not?
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
DraftKings
- Joe Mixon
- Davante Adams
- Michael Pittman
- Travis Kelce
FanDuel
- Lamar Jackson
- Davante Adams
- Devonta Smith
- Pat Friermuth
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Question: Favorite Pay Up Player outside of the Balanced CORE
Austin Ekeler
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Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Raiders/Chargers
Steelers/Bengals
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
Vikings ML
Bears +7
Steelers/Bengals OVER 44.5
Chiefs/Cards UNDER 53.5
Bucs/Cowboys UNDER
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Question: Upsets Parlay
Bears ML
Raiders ML
Steelers ML