Welcome to an odd looking week. There are a bunch of game totals which appear lower than they should be and typically early in the season we have some games that tend to play a little bit over but I am liking defenses this week and as we saw on TNF, a defensive touchdown could be the theme of this week.
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INJURY UPDATES
- UPDATE: Christian Watson and Taysom Hill ruled out.
WEATHER
- Buffalo at Miami: Hot and Stormy
- Green Bay at Tampa Bay: Same
Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
- The Vikings and Saints are both playing next week in London and will be leaving right after their games, but generally this isn’t an issue on the front end of the trip.
- The Bengals and Dolphins are next week’s Thursday Night Football game. Teams in this scenario tend to struggle IMO.
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#1- Ride the Taylor Train
As of Friday afternoon the highest amount of public bets were on the Chiefs over the Colts and this once again proves that we live in a nation of Tik Tok Zombies who just stare at their phones and automatically assume that what they have been seeing is what they will continue to see.
The Colts are winning this game.
The Colts are not winning this game on the shoulders of Matt Ryan though. This is why Jonathan Taylor is the #1 fantasy RB and his volume along with being at home in a near must play better spot for the 0-1-1 Colts is why I am not overthinking this spot and moving on.
Yes, I have mentioned that RB in DFS is no longer where you wan to spend up but we can’t overlook that Taylor will go over 100 yards rushing and should score twice as the Colts offense bounces back after a goose egg in Jacksonville.
The Ambush: Jonathan Taylor goes for 140 and 2 TD
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#2. West Coast Business Trip
Following their game in Los Angeles last week – where the Falcons almost pulled off a reverse Falconing by coming back vs the Rams – the Falcons of Atlanta have headed to the great northwest to take on the Seahawks of Seattle. They have been practicing in Lakewood, WA all week and should be well rested for the NFL equivalent of Pirates vs Marlins and yes I am going to be stacking this game so what’s your problem???
Both defenses are bad and this is a spot where we can see some guys who aren’t as good as fantasy minds want them to be go off.
How does Kyle Pitts not tear up the Seahawks? How does DK Metcalf not tear up the Falcons? The answer is that you want both and you can look at this as your under the radar contrarian stack spot.
I should not be on Geno Smith as much as I am this week but the lack of running game for Seattle and a heavy blitz team should mean that Geno could extend plays with his legs at times and have to throw it or run it himself. I would like Mariotta as well but I see Cordarrelle Patterson getting going for Atlanta and he should have no trouble rushing against a smaller Seattle defense.
The Ambush: Falcons and Seahawks have a great fantasy game with 50+ points scored.
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#3. Be(ngals) Careful with that “lock of the week”
After the Jets big comeback win last week and the Bengals starting 0-2 everyone is assuming that the Bengals are a must win vs the Jets and I’m cautious. Until the Bengals are going to come out and prove that they can protect Burrow (who is hurt still) and they know how to win a game then I wouldn’t be so sure on them. Plus with the TNF look ahead spot I am going to just completely fade the Bengals this week.
On the fades front I also do not want Jalen Hurts and Stefon Diggs who both showed out on Monday Night Football.
The Ambush: Fades of the week include …
- Bengals
- Jalen Hurts
- Stefon Diggs
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#4. Windy City Value 1-2 Punch
Two guys who are anchors in lineups this week should be David Montgomery and Brandin Cooks. In the same game in Chicago this week those are the main mouths on both sides for these teams in what should be a close and more entertaining game than one might expect.
With the Jonathan Taylor Ace play this week I find a 2nd RB should be cheaper and Montgomery is $5900 on DraftKings making him that anchor chalk play to ride for a nice game.
Similarly, Brandin Cooks comes in at $5,800 on DK and should have a 7 catch game vs the Bears, the target volume for him outweighs the cost greatly
The Ambush: Montgomery and Cooks are middle of the road safety nets this week.
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#5. THE AMBUSH PLATOON
Five under the radar touchdown calls this week
- QB – Geno Smith
- RB – Kenyan Drake
- WR – DK Metcalf
- TE – Dawson Knox
- DEF – Eagles
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THE AMBUSH PLAY …
Geno Smith
Is Geno Smith in the same spot as Tua was last week? No. I say this to set your expectations properly going into this slate, but what he does provide is good value and someone that I think should have one priority and one priority only this week. Throw it up to DK Metcalf over and over as they try to catch up with the Falcons who play very well on offense this week.
I ALSO LIKE …
Derek Carr
I put a bet on Carr to lead the league in passing yards and this is one of those scenarios where that plays out. His WR (which is basically Adams, Adams and more Adams) should draw no coverage issues and the ground game isn’t going to do much. Lots of yards we just need the TD.
Patrick Mahomes / Josh Allen
If you aren’t paying down at QB then just go with the most sure thing every week with Mahomes or Josh Allen.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Lamar Jackson
Joe Burrow
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RB is very balanced this week.
THE AMBUSH PLAY …
Jonathan Taylor
Broke him down above in the AMBUSH plays, he is a core lock.
I ALSO LIKE …
David Montgomery
Price and talent and matchup all lineup for Monty who does have some concern with others vulturing him as always but this is a game with some potential for points so I am okay with that variance.
Austin Ekeler
Riddle me this. With Herbert banged up and the Jaguars coming to town why are the Chargers even considering anything other than Ekeler getting it 20 times total?
Cordarelle Patterson
Remember the gem of 2021 at the start of the fantasy season? He’s back, this is a Patterson/Pitts combination game for the Falcons in a west coast shootout that nobody but this bozo see’s happening.
Leonard Fournette
Another week where Fournette has to touch the ball the most for Tampa. Right now with their WR so banged up (and suspended as they should be) he has to be their workhorse.
Alvin Kamara
I was off Kamara at start of the week, then got on him heavy but will be monitoring things leading up to kickoff. The Saints OL has been playing really well in the run game and assuming everyone is a go then Kamara should do damage on the ground. I just wouldn’t think he has enough passing volume or tempo to make this a smash spot for Kamara.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Miles Sanders
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
DK Metcalf
Atlanta should not be able to cover Metcalf, they have historically had problems with the more physical WR and so if he has any desire to get some stats this year this is the game he has to go over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is a core play for me.
Davante Adams
Adams, Jefferson, Kupp, yes they’re all solid every damn week, what’s there to write? Adams though with the Raiders having no Renfrow and a sick Josh Jacobs should have a MASSIVE volume game against a terrible defense which just got torched by Stefon Diggs as expected.
A.J. Brown
We round out the big three with another player who likely draws zero coverage that limits him the entire game. I’m no fan of the Eagles ground game this week, so look for Brown to do most of the work.
I ALSO LIKE …
Brandin Cooks
Mr. 7 catches for 87 yards this week is the only Texan I have exposure on and I believe he will once again be 7 for 87.
Elijah Moore
Eli Apple. Enough said.
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THE DK BARGIN BIN …
Randall Cobb
Mack Hollins
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Stefon Diggs
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
Kyle Pitts
There’s not much of a scenario where Atlanta moves the ball in this game and Pitts doesn’t finally get going.
I ALSO LIKE …
Travis Kelce … Any time this season when the Chiefs might be trailing in a game script you HAVE to expect Kelce to go over his reception prop. With that potential volume he wont bust.
T.J. Hockensen … Another week and another TJ Hockenson is too cheap to ignore. Vikings are relatively okay vs TE But 4200 is worth a double dip at TE this week.
BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
Darren Waller
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
New Orleans Saints
My Saints are primed to get off this week after they have gone the first two weeks with just one sack. The reason for that was dealing with a read option offense from Atlanta and Tom Brady not wanting to get hit and throwing the ball half a second after he got it. They have the perfect player to shutdown CMC and should be able to handle the Panthers WR even with some banged up secondary players. Love the Saints to get 4+ sacks and have a big game.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philly is gonna win in the trenches and more than anything I believe they get a pick six off Wentz.
NY Jets
Worth another week of punting with the Jets as the benefit of having the Bengals OL is worth it to me.
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it KYLE PITTS?
Week 1 – Everyone loves Kyle Pitts vs the Saints. He sucks. Week 2 – People love Pitts against the Rams. He sucks.
Week 3 … He is facing the MF Seahawks. I dont care what the coach said, they are getting him the ball in the red zone this week.
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
These are guys that are in the middle $ price range that I gravitate towards the most
DK: David Montgomery, Brandin Cooks
FD: DK Metcalf, Kyle Pitts
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Question: Favorite Pay Up Player outside of the Balanced CORE
Jonathan Taylor
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Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Falcons vs Seahawks
Chiefs vs Colts
Lions vs Vikings
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
Colts ML
Ravens -3
Falcons ML
Broncos ML
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Question: Upsets Parlay
Colts / Falcons / Broncos
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