Welcome to the Week 5 edition of The Ambush, which has been about as productive as I could ask for through the first Quarter of the season. BYE weeks are quickly approaching, as are larger spreads on games and the likelihood that we see ‘stacks’ pay off more in NFL DFS.
NOTABLE INJURY UPDATES
- Kyle Pitts (Atlanta) is OUT. Falcons coming in banged up.
- The Titans WR room is very thin, it’s basically Robert Woods and a bunch of dead vines.
- Jarvis Landry (Saints) should play and with Michael Thomas out his usage goes up.
- Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) – I expect he plays
- Bailey Zappe expected to start for the Patriots in place of Mac Jones
WEATHER
- Very nice this weekend all around the NFL landscape.
DANGER SPOTS
- Bears and Commanders are next week’s TNF game
- Bills have their re-match with the Chiefs next Sunday
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This is the ugliest slate of Quarterback options we have had this season and in quite some time that I can recall.
Josh Allen could wind up doing what Josh Allen does if he rushes two in, but still at his price he is a no go. After that there’s really nobody that jumps out at me. My cautious guys are probably popular and I’m not touching them….
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
- Trevor Lawrence … Lawrence is quickly dominating the second year QB category as he takes off under the guidance of Doug Peterson. Houston’s a terrific spot for him to win his first milli-maker if his young career, no? I see lots of love going towards the ground game for Jacksonville and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a QB-RB-WR type build for Jacksonville pay off which to me is Etienne hoping he catches one. I’m projecting a 280+ yard and 3 TD game from Lawrence. Both good enough to use at his price.
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I ALSO LIKE…
- Matt Stafford … I expect the Rams best game of the season despite what will feel like a road game with a ton of Cowboys fans taking over their “home” stadium in L.A.
- Carson Wentz … Wentz is gonna throw for 300 yards against the Titans and still look like ass in doing such. But points matter and thats all we care about, right?
- Davis Mills … Lawrence is cheap as well so its not that Mills is that much better for a few hundred bucks less, but he has a ground game which I think won’t travel as well here on the road making him have to throw it a ton.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
- Jalen Hurts
- Kyler Murray
I love one of Hurts passing options and I love one of Murray’s passing options. This game will not go off if they dont rush a lot though, and I am banking on it being in the low 20’s so we can get our exposure through the receivers/TE instead.
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS…
- Alvin Kamara … I got a completely different vibe from the Saints this week and it was led by Kamara being very vocal about playing and taking charge in practice to fix the stupid self inflicted mistakes the Saints are making. With Thomas out and Dalton starting once again we should see Kamara be the focal point for the Saints and their OL should get Andrus Peat back which opens things up for the ground game even more. Kamara is scoring three times this Sunday as this weeks Austin Ekeler.
- Najee Harris … For the full season I have been against Najee Harris as I viewed him as being overvalued coming into the year with a terrible OL and bad QB situation. The QB situation is better and the spot for an upset is there for Pittsburgh this week. Harris has two things I love about him this week, he’s cheap and he’s gonna catch 5+ passes from Pickett. You give me those two factors together and throw in that Buffalo’s allowed a good amount of TD via the ground compared to the pass and we’re checking enough boxes to warrant him being a CORE play.
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I ALSO LIKE…
- Rhamondre Stevenson … Harris/Stevenson/Harris/Stevenson, that’s gonna be the Patriots offense for the entire game. The damn Seahawks just gashed the Lions for crying out loud. The one thing I will say here is that ownership projections have Stevenson way ahead of Harris, so for the risk takers roll Harris instead.
- Nick Chubb … The Chargers rank 30th vs the rush and 31st in rushing TD allowed to RB. But Chubb is still splitting enough with Hunt and expensive enough that he isn’t a CORE play this week. More suitable on FanDuel tournaments because I think he comes in as a sub 5% home RB who could score 2x.
- Christian McCaffrey … AK41 and Najee Harris along with the NE backs give you enough mid or ‘safe’ value options at RB. So anything as a third RB is gonna need to be someone who can really go off at low ownership. The Panthers are one of my favorite bets this week getting 6.5 at home against the Niners on a short week flying across country. Let’s walk through the math on how Carolina could win and we quickly realize that it’s gotta be CMC.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
- Leonard Fournette – Bucs
Plenty of reason for the Bucs to come out and dominate the Falcons up front, but the later we get into the week the more I am shying away from Tampa and leaning on Atlanta. Lenny looks really bad of late and it’s clear that Tampa needs to get into the endzone using Brady’s arm in this game. No reason for Fournette to be a must own and Harris should beat him out.
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
- Terry McLaurin … Screw me once, shame on you. Screw me twice, shame on me. That will be the story after this weekend if Terry somehow does not come through despite A: Jahan Dotson being out and B: The Titans pass defense being his opponent. Dear Carson Wentz, throw the f’n ball to Scary Terry please.
- A.J. Brown … When I referenced getting exposure in this game with the weapons this is the primary weapon. Something about Brown in a dome just screams a 75 yard touchdown catch and run. Nobody on Arizona should be able to check him.
- Christian Kirk … Lawrence cannot pay off as the QB without his WR having a good enough game. Just not physically possible and Kirk/Zay Jones to me are the easy pairings with him in the passing game.
- Cooper Kupp … I am old enough to remember being excited when Sunday Night Countdown came on and Chris Berman and Tom Jackson would deliver the highlights of the games before the ESPN (or back in the day TNT) Sunday Night Football game of the week. Those were glory days watching Standard Def highlights of the Saints on the old Superdome turf somehow manage to goof off a game against some random team. What does this have to do with Cooper Kupp? Absolutely nothing, I just felt like being nostalgic rather than writing up some blah blah blah on why Cooper Kupp is gonna get 20+ fantasy points this week which really isn’t that informative.
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I ALSO LIKE …
- Brandin Cooks … After a low target game against a team who is decent against the pass, Cooks should be back in a spot where he gets a high volume of Mills looks.
- Robert Woods … Look for the Titans to do all their damage through the air and not with Derrick Henry. Washington’s just terrible in coverage so if Tannehill has time, then Woods should have a 7 catch game with ease.
- Mike Evans … Evans and Godwin seem to alternate games where they tear up Atlanta and despite the Bucs having two former Falcons it’s gonna be Evans who does the job this week because Julio cant get on the field and now Gage is questionable as well. If both are out, Evans is a lock TD.
- Deebo Samuel … Back near where he played his college ball Deebo is the only 49er that I can consider using. Carolina is structure defensively that they can handle Shannahan’s scheme, but Deebo is obviously just too elite to ignore.
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THE DK BARGIN BIN …
- Kyle Phillips … Phillips is expected back this week and for the Titans he has been a nice little gem working with Tannehill. Cheap bargain play in a spot I think should have some good offensive output.
- Zay Jones
- Nico Collins
- George Pickens
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH …
- Justin Jefferson
- Tyreek Hill
- Jaylen Waddle
- DK Metcalf
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Well there’s no Kelce and I’m not chasing TJ Hockenson this week, so we have a sub 5k menu of options to pick from at TE this week.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS…
- Evan Engram … I’m in love with Engram to round out a Jacksonville passing stack this week. In love my friends…
- Mike Gesicki … Teddy B starting gives Gesicki a huge boost. He should be the safety valve and for 3500 I think he gets enough love in the scheme this week.
- Zach Ertz … Former team narrative is one thing but Eagles defense against TE and chances that the Cardinals get higher # of possessions in this game to me helps Ertz into the top tier.
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I ALSO LIKE…
- Hunter Henry
- Gerald Everett
- Pat Freiermuth
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
- George Kittle
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS …
- L.A. Rams … Rams are sub 4k on both sites and the Cooper Rush magic shoe is going to fall off
- New Orleans Saints … Some pieces are coming together for the Saints. Their former elite rush defense is going to show up big time in this game which opens up blitz opportunities and a Geno Smith 2 INT game.
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I ALSO LIKE …
- Carolina Panthers
- Chicago Bears
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Terry McLaurin?
Well, it’s Terry McLaurin because it appears Carson Wentz cannot stand the guy or something because he is never throwing him the damn football. This is the best chance Wentz and the Commanders passing game will have all season. It’s now or never.
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
QB- Trevor Lawrence
RB- Alvin Kamara
WR- AJ Brown
TE- Evan Engram
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Question: Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE
Cooper Kupp
Christian McCaffrey
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Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Texans vs Jaguars
- Lawrence (or Mills)
- Etienne
- Kirk
- Cooks (and Collins if using Mills)
Titans vs Commanders
- Carson Wentz
- Terry McLaurin
- Robert Woods
Falcons vs Bucs
- Tom Brady
- Mike Evans
- Tyler Allgeier
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
Steelers +14.5
Saints -5
Commanders ML
Panthers +6.5
Eagles/Cardinals UNDER 49
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Question: Upsets Parlay(s)
Commanders & Panthers & Cardinals