The Noon slate of games this weekend are not that great and for DFS purposes we’re going to mostly be focusing on the 3PM set of games, so I would advise you to be comfortable fading the early set and also not get too excited if you have two guys going and are in first place at 2:57 pm.
Games which are in the ‘early’ window are highlighted in yellow.
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TOP GAMES
- UCLA at Oregon
- Ole Miss at LSU
- Texas at Oklahoma State
- Boston College at Wake Forest
MID RANGE/SNEAKY GAMES
- Kansas at Baylor
- Memphis at Tulane
- Iowa at Ohio State
- Syracuse at Clemson
- UNLV at Notre Dame
BLAH GAMES
- Cincinnati at SMU
- West Virginia at Texas Tech
- Arizona State at Stanford
- Purdue at Wisconsin
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Favorite Game Stack
Boston College vs Wake Forest (-20.5)
I like this game a good amount…
We have two Quarterbacks here whom I really trust and whom their offenses are going to funnel through. For Phil Jurkovec at $5,600 he is going into a great situation as a road underdog QB and facing a defense which funnels 78% of touchdowns allowed through the air. The combination of Jurkovec ($5600) to Flowers ($5900) is critical for this game to go off, but at the same time impossible to fade if the game goes off.
The elite player combination however is going to be Sam Hartman ($8900) who has a history of going off and winning slates connecting with Donavon Green ($5200).
- QB – Phil Jurkovec (BC)
- QB – Sam Hartman (Wake)
- WR – Zay Flowers (BC)
- WR – Donavon Green (Wake)
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Second Tier Top Games
Both of these games below should be close and have some favorable priced players in them that we gotta consider.
Texas (-6) vs Oklahoma State
Let’s get the obvious out of the way real quick as this is an elite RB match-up between Bijan Robinson and Dominic Richardson and for how well Richardson has played his price tag at $6500 continues to make him a viable option in DFS. Being at home lends me to think he gets in the box this week as well.
The real key to this game however is going to be the Texas passing game. If the Longhorns trust Quinn Ewers to go on the road into Stillwater and win then that means Xavier Worthyand Jordan Whittington are going to have chances for big games. Worthy and Ewers seem to be the right combination to lock in on and I would start with Worthy for sure.
Spencer Sanders at $7800 is a great run it back from the Cowboys but pairing him with Richardson is probably not the route this week, so I would pick Richardson or combo Sanders plus Braydon Johnson. The Texas pass defense is going to give up points in this game and I trust the Cowboys to cover and actually play with the lead most of the game.
Ole Miss vs LSU
Let’s see what these two jeckyl and hyde teams can entertain us with in the CBS 3:30 game of the week. I don’t honestly trust either QB to make them my number one plays this week and I really don’t trust the funnel on offense to go to one guy here or there at RB/WR either, so you either just jump into the pool and pray here or you fade this game completely.
But make no mistake, there’s points here. A good amount of them and the Ole Miss ground game is going to score 2+ touchdowns just by stepping onto the field.
- RB – Zach Evans (Ole Miss)
- QB – Jayden Daniels (LSU)
- WR – Kayshon Boutte (LSU)
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Other Notable Spots
Memphis at Tulane (-7)
Could be a sneaky game down in New Orleans.
UCLA vs Oregon (-6.5)
The top game on the “Vegas” board is UCLA vs Oregon with a total of 70 and two Quarterbacks who are known for doing damage on the ground. This is not a great rushing match-up for suddenly elite Bo Nix, who is trying to sustain a long run of posting 30+ Quarterback scores each week.
Normally when there is a high $ Quarterback who is doing it every week I prefer to use them when they are contrarian or facing a team that I don’t think will do much on the other side to allow them to get the ball back quickly. That is not the case here at all. UCLA should be able to move it on Oregon and thus limit the possession upside that Oregon has and make it harder for Nix to pay off. Yes, he is a great play the way he is going in that offense, but I think game flow has him as a fade at his price.
DTR (Dorian Thompson Robinson) on the other hand is very much in consideration. He should be able to move the ball in the air and certainly could rush a couple in.
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A strong Quarterback slate this Saturday.
MY GUYS
Sam Hartman – Wake Forest – $8,900
Hartman is coming off two underwhelming games by his standards after he posted a 38.48 DK performance vs Clemson on September 24th. His last two games vs Army and Florida State certainly were not spots where they leaned on him and he only wound up throwing it 19 times against Army two weeks ago. Now with plenty of rest and all his WR weapons available to him I think we’re gonna see that Sammy Heisman type game this week.
A year ago against BC Hartman led the Deacons to a 41-10 win going 20-32 with 3 TD passes. He’ll top those marks as BC keeps it closer this season and I wouldn’t be shocked if Hartman had a 4 TD game. He’s pricey and likely to be < 5% owned. A great spot to use him.
Dorian Thompson Robinson – UCLA – $7,900
I trust DTR to match Nix in terms of his rushing upside and is $1400 cheaper and believe that if one goes off they will both go off, so take the cheaper option.
Michael Pratt – Tulane – $6,300
Memphis’ pass defense is not doing much to stop opponents allowing a near 68% completion rate and with Pratt being used a good amount to run the ball as well he should have no problem posting a 3x or potential 4x return.
Phil Jukovec – Boston College – $5,600
I have had a ton of success in CFB DFS by going opposite the main stream narrative that you should automatically play a Quarterback in the Super Flex position on DraftKings. On FanDuel yeah it’s a no-brainer most weeks. But really I prioritize my Super Flex to be someone who is in the 5k to 6k range and a lot of times that will be a 5th WR or 3rd/4th RB.
This week however, the Jurkovec play at 5.6k screams to me as the best value for the Super-Flex position in a game where I trust him to throw it a good amount and have success in a high scoring and up tempo game vs Wake Forest.
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MY GUYS
Xazavian Valladay – Arizona State – $6,600 vs Casey Filkins – Stanford – $5,800
We start with these two guys who are facing each other in the same game, offering something that always looks cool in game stacking 2 RB to just run left and run right across your Television screen in the late window. These are two really bad rush defenses and two RB who get about 80% of their teams workload out of the backfield.
Zach Evans – Ole Miss – $6,400
You can run the ball on LSU who has given up 5.5 and 6.4 ypc in their last two games. Not to mention the Tigers seem to love screwing up punts on special teams and giving their opponents a free touchdown drive each week. Evans gets in the box and should sustain his 5.9 ypc average, and maybe a second or third TD in a high scoring game.
Charles McClelland – Cincinnati – $6,100
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DEEP VALUE
None. The guys mentioned above are all pretty good value for their opportunity this week.
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This is honestly why locking in 2 QB is going to be the no-brainer this week and not the donkey move. The pool of WR options is pretty darn limited with so many rushing QB on the slate and a good amount of teams having deep options in the passing game.
MY GUYS
Xavier Worthy – Texas – $6,100
Worthy is certain to see 10+ targets so long as he doesn’t die or go out and party on the road the night before the game and should be able to have a 70% catch rate which means 7 catches for about 85 yards and in a close game probably a touchdown as well. Do the math, his floor makes him a great play and his ceiling for what I think could be a 3 TD game as they’re trailing to Oklahoma State is hard to ignore.
Zay Flowers – Boston College – $5,900
The decision with a guy like Zay Flowers each week is simply do you like the game to go over the total. And I do, so end of analysis, he’s the easy pick here.
Kayshon Boutte – LSU – $5,300
Boutte is starting to get his head out of the clouds and finally is getting worked more into the offense for LSU and a 2 TD game is coming very very soon.
Kazmeir Allen – UCLA – $5400
Going back to Allen who was a big fat dud earlier this season when touting him up, but is my favorite option to pair with DTR.
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WILD CARD WR
AT Perry – Wake Forest – $7,400 … Donavon Greene – Wake Forest – $5,200
If you can find a way to get Perry in a stack with Hartman it’s going to result in a 1st Quarter touchdown, but if the Eagles can keep this game close for a while as I anticipate then the value of Greene at $5200 paired with Hartman is going to make lineup construction better. I trust them both and could even see a scenario where Hartman throws 2 to each.
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VALUE
I think the proper roster construction this week is 2 QB, 3 RB and 3 WR, so needing a ‘value’ WR under 5k really isn’t necessary.
Hal Presley – Baylor – $4300
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
- QB
- RB
- WR
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CORE BUILD
RB1- Xzavian Valladay
WR1- Xavier Worthy
WR2- Zay Flowers
S-FLEX- Phil Jurkovec
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BETS
Syracuse / Clemson Under 49.5
Boston College / Wake Forest OVER 60.5
Texas Tech -6
Oklahoma St. +6
Memphis / Tulane OVER 55.5