A big slate of games this weekend, so lets just cut right to the chase and talk about the top picks.
I posted some updates around 10:15 am this morning. Not much, just added some additional thoughts as I was crammed getting the article out when editing it last night…
This week’s best games include …
TCU at West Virginia
Noon kick off in Morgantown but otherwise this is a game with depth of options on both ends. Naturally since it’s the highest total on the board you will find good exposure here, but less than one might expect.
West Virginia should play a little better defensively at home, but still doesn’t have a sure fire way to slow down Johnston and all Kendre Miller seems to do is score winning touchdowns for the Horned Frogs who have a legit big three in Duggan, Miller and Johnston.
WVU has to get the ball in the hands of WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton who leads the team with 5 TD receptions and figures to be a guy who has to have a big game for WVU to pull off the upset. Assuming CJ Donaldson is fully clear to go for the Mountaineers he is underpriced and should do damage at $5,200.
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I have interest in these other games to focus on today …
Wake Forest at Louisville
I am quickly locking in on Cunningham being a CORE play today and bumping him up into the top three along with Duggan and KJ Jefferson overall. I think this is a sloppy spot for the Wake defense which can be ran on and the Cardinals are likely to keep up. This could be a slate breaker shootout game.
- Cunningham, Ford, Hartman, Perry
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Arkansas vs Auburn
KJ Jefferson & Tank Bigsby are the only ones I am going with here, I don’t like the Ashford chalk today.
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Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Look out for Kansas State in this game. They have a great stack option with Howard – Vaughn and Philip Brooks who the model/opto is all over today. He seems to be in no mans land from a pricing perspective as the only mid range WR to consider a near top play. Kansas State is going to score 20 in the first half.
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Malik Cunningham – Louisville – $8,000
You will notice in my original CORE that I had not opted into one QB yet. That’s changing with Cunningham being the main staple as he will step it up in a big game and a potential Louisville upset.
Max Duggan – TCU – $8,500
Nix, Sanders, Cunningham, Hartman are all in the mix as far as big $ guys who can put up that 30+ to 40+ spot today. But none of them are in the game flow that I see WVU and TCU producing.
KJ Jefferson – Arkansas – $6,300
A good amount of ownership should be on both QB in this game but I have a ton more confidence in KJ Jefferson to be the main producer for the Razorbacks than I do Ashford for Auburn.
Jack Plummer – California – $5,300
As a 17 point home dog, Plummer is gonna have to do quite a bit of lifting today to keep the Bears in this one vs the Ducks. The good news is that Plummer is going to throw it a ton and the Ducks can be prone to a consistent passing attack.
The bad news is he offers zero rushing upside on a slate loaded with rushing QB’s.
Garrett Shrader – Syracuse – $5,900
Notre Dame is 129th in the nation in red zone defense, which is where Shrader can easily go well over his salary and projection by rushing for a TD. The passing spot isn’t terrible either so the floor for Shrader to throw for 225 and 2 TD with a rushing TD is in play.
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This could be the deepest RB slate we have seen in quite some time and a good amount of home RB’s in great spots today.
Sean Tucker – Syracuse – $7,000
Yep. I am back on my Sean Tucker train. Notre Dame is a fraud and Syracuse is going to punch them in the mouth.
CJ Donaldson – West Virginia – $5,200
Donaldson is a CORE build today. This price and the number of possessions the Mountaineers should see make him too hard to ignore.
Tank Bigsby – Auburn – $5,400
A lot of ownership will go to the QB but I trust Tank more than anyone else on Auburn.
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Also strongly like
Deuce Vaughn – Kansas State – $7,000
Chase Brown – Illinois – $7,500
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J. Michael Sturdivant – California – $5,200
There’s points to be had in the air above the Ducks defense. Sturdivant’s moved into that Elite Target category with 32 total targets in his last three games and Plummer should look his way a good amount to continue that this week.
Listed at 6’3 and 205 he fits the type of frame I love to target in CFB when drawing a high amount of target % and a gameflow that warrants getting their best WR the ball often. Start here and figure out the rest later.
Xavier Hutchinson – Iowa State – $7,900
Hutchinson should hit 100 yards receiving and probably gets in the box vs Oklahoma, no doubting his floor.
Quentin Johnston – TCU – $7,200
Big debate for me this week comes down to trusting Johnston vs the sure thing in Xavier Hutchinson. I think Johnston has a higher ceiling this week and RB is very deep so building both of these two means that we are going with a punt third WR.
Michael Mayer – Notre Dame – $5,600
Honestly thought I had him wrote up before. If you have any Syracuse exposure it should be correlated with Mayer.
Bryce Ford Wheaton – West Virginia – $6,700
Big game and Big play ability. Until TCU and WVU both start having games which play consistently to the under I would have a hard time ignoring them and facing off against each other I suspect there’s more fireworks coming.
Phillip Brooks – Kansas State – $4,800
Oklahoma St still has a solid pass defense, but the home first half boost that Kansas State should get warrants looking here. He just needs 5 for 50 and a touchdown to easily pay off.
Bryce Ford Wheaton – West Virginia – $6,700
Big game and Big play ability. Until TCU and WVU both start having games which play consistently to the under I would have a hard time ignoring them and facing off against each other I suspect there’s more fireworks coming.
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
- RB
- QB
- WR
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CORE BUILD
QB – Cunningham
RB – Tucker
RB – Donaldson
WR – Strurdivant
WR – Q.Johnston
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BETS
Ohio State / Penn State UNDER 60.5
WVU +7.5
Arkansas -3.5
Syracuse -1.5
UCF -1
Kansas State 1H