Welcome to the Week 8 edition of The Ambush.
We made it until Week 8 but we finally have our slate with a good amount of late breaking value plays coming into the picture. But in this case it is mostly in the Quarterback department as Malik Willis and Sam Ehlinger are both getting the start in the AFC South this week. I mention this because on DraftKings they are going to have to get some attention at extremely cheap prices.
And by extremely cheap I of course mean FREE because Ehlinger is $4,000 and Willis is $5,000.
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NOTABLE INJURY UPDATES
Ryan Tannehill out for Titans, Willis to start.
WEATHER
All clear
DANGER SPOTS
None
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
SAM #AlwaysEhlinger
One of my all-time favorite Quarterbacks in college is most certainly going to be on my main DraftKings lineup since he is min price, will rush it some and is facing a bad defense in Washington.
When Ehlinger was at Texas he thrived throwing it to the slot receiver and so he should correlate well with Parris Campbell but I also expect a good workload for Michael Pittman Jr too. This to me is more about the Colts looking to get a spark and Ehlinger should be able to give them that.
The slate is void of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and I don’t like Jalen Hurts much this week so we’re really not paying up to begin with.
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I ALSO LIKE…
DEREK CARR
This is without a doubt a get right game for the New Orleans rushing defense. Their tackling is going to be better this week and this all translates into Carr throwing it more and attacking where New Orleans is most vulnerable right now — in the secondary. With Lattimore out and Roby out the Saints do have two viable CB’s but they’re both young and nobody is going to stop Hunter Renfrow out of the slot this week.
DAK PRESCOTT
Dak’s getting overlooked. Love a QB coming back in his second start after an injury and believe he will throw for 300 and 2 TD this week.
TUA TAGOVAILOA
Tua’s gonna be one of the more popular plays, he will have the most popular WR’s and should not burn you, but this isn’t another Tua go off game because Miami can rush it well vs Detroit too.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
Jalen Hurts
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS…
SAQUON BARKLEY
I can’t find any reason to not trust Barkley against Seattle. The only way he doesn’t do it is through injury or Daniel Jones keeping it twice but I’m not gonna get that wild this week so I would take the near sure things in Barkley vs a bottom 5 rush defense.
RAHEEM MOSTERT
When I first saw Dolphins at Lions I immediately thought of the running game for Miami and not the passing game. We’ve seen the Lions give up big runs all season long so why is everyone automatically forcing in Tyreek and Waddle (ok, Waddle on a run makes sense) when Mostert could have huge holes to break off big runs with this week?
TONY POLLARD
Last weeks flop gets a boost again with Zeke out and I honestly think he catches a short TD pass from Dak as well.
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I ALSO LIKE…
DERRICK HENRY … 140 yards rushing for Henry or we riot. The switch over to Malik Willis actually makes me like Henry a little bit less because Willis in my mind is going to do well with his own legs, but Henry should put this game away as he has always done vs the Texans.
You do not need to force Henry on FanDuel at $10,000 though.
NAJEE HARRIS … Upset Special this week, the Steelers go in and punch the Eagles in the mouth and they do it with a sneaky ground game from Harris. Nothing in any data will tell you that this is going to happen before hand but when you deal with such a small sample size as the NFL data doesn’t matter. Philly coming off a BYE and looking past Pittsburgh is what we’re banking on.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
Josh Jacobs
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS…
COOPER KUPP
Who doesn’t like Cooper Kupp? Well, he’s going to be that high priced stud who gets overlooked this week. The Rams could finally break the curse of not being able to handle Shannahan and Kupp having a ho-hum 9 for 117 and 2 TD at 5% ownership is worth using.
CHRIS OLAVE
DraftKings continues to leave him down priced as a high end WR2 when he is in fact the clear WR1 on this offense while both Thomas and Landry remain out.
TERRY McLAURIN
Terry showing up last week was a nice sign and now he returns back home where he will have a ton of friends and family in the stadium. For those who like those narratives then lock and load Terry at $6,000.
JAYLEN WADDLE
If I believe that Miami will do work on the ground (I do) then that has to weigh things towards Waddle over Hill as he will get a sweep or two near the goal line and that could help him have a smash game better than Tyreek in my mind.
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I ALSO LIKE…
JUSTIN JEFFERSON … Arizona’s too soft on the back end in their coverage and has nobody to shut him down within the red zone when Minnesota should target him.
PARRIS CAMPBELL … The Ehlinger slot narrative is going to be fun to win a ton of money with this week. $4500 receiver who could score twice here, don’t sleep on the Colts passing game.
HUNTER RENFROW … Get right game for Renfrow? I think so, the New Orleans Slot CB coverage has gone from #1 to #32 faster than I woof down an order of Beignets on a Sunday morning in New Orleans.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
DeANDRE HOPKINS
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS…
NOBODY
This is the worst TE slate I have seen all year. While there are a few mid range options like Hockenson, Friermuth and Gesicki that grade okay none of them feel like must owns to me.
I won’t be spending on TE
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I ALSO LIKE…
HUNTER HENRY … This game is going over and it’s not the RB who make it happen.
JUWAN JOHNSON … Second option for New Orleans in a good spot when they get in the red zone. Well, second option not named Taysom Hill that is.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
NOAH FANT
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THE AMBUSH PLAYS…
COWBOYS … A little pricey for what I want in a defense but I see no problems with them otherwise.
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I ALSO LIKE…
STEELERS … Hard to like much on Defense this week but no matter who is out there the Steelers find a way to get to the Quarterback and can’t win without matching the Eagles talented O-Line.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
49ERS
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it COOPER KUPP?
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
Sam Ehlinger
Saquon Barkley
Terry McLaurin
Chris Olave
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Question: Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE
Derrick Henry
Cooper Kupp
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Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Raiders vs Saints … Carr / Renfrow / Adams … Olave / Johnson / Kamara
Commanders vs Colts … McLaurin / Thomas … Ehlinger / Pittman / Campbell
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
Raiders / Saints OVER 48.5
Patriots / Jets OVER 40
Rams ML
Steelers ML
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Question: Upsets Parlay(s)
Panthers, Steelers, Lions ML Parlay
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