Welcome to the Week 11 edition of The Ambush.
One major element to this week is … the elements! Obviously you heard by now that the Browns-Bills game is moved from Buffalo to DETROIT due to the snow in Buffalo. With this move we have a high number of games which are in DOMES and every other game is in cold weather.
Your Dome games include
- Browns vs Bills
- Rams at Saints
- Bears at Falcons
- Eagles at Colts
- Commanders at Texans
- Cowboys at Vikings
And then of course every other game is cold in Denver, New York, New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh. While a one off here or there in the cold games might be good plays, I wouldn’t overload anything from them and I have a feel that over the next two weeks we see stacks and QB-WR-(other team WR) start to pay off in these good environments compared to the shitty cold weather ones.
Sunday Morning Updates
- I moved onto Justin Jefferson as a pivot off Barkley in FLEX on FanDuel. Just going to ride my narratives on the dome games being better shootout potential this week.
- Antonio Gibson vs Brian Robinson Jr decides the slate at RB. I actually don’t mind both the more I look at it.
- RB is very good this week.
- Yes…. Yes, I am using Taysom Hill at TE on FanDuel as well.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
DAK PRESCOTT
The Cowboys go on the road as a favorite against a Vikings team which is arguably as good if not better and home in a late afternoon time spot. Very curious indeed there but I too agree that Dallas is going to bounce back from their loss at the Packers last week and the time to put the game on the shoulders of Dak Prescott has arrived. The Vikings got a good enough performance against Josh Allen last week but have been favorable for opposing QB to not be terrible against them so throw in a little rushing yards and a good game script and we have a nice under the radar top end QB this week.
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I ALSO LIKE…
JUSTIN FIELDS
I am always cautious with someone who breaks out into a hot streak at QB which relies upon lots of long rushing TD runs like Fields has. But certainly this is not the worst opponent or stadium for him to potentially do more damage on the ground in.
MARCUS MARIOTA
The Bears defense is just straight garbage and the pass rush is going bye bye which is a major help for Mariota when he does pass. He also has two solid passing options in London and Pitts this week who could both have big games in the red zone. The rushing upside for Mariota probably wont match that ot Fi
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
RUSSELL WILSON
You are better off just using a pass catcher here (i.e. Sutton).
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
SAQUON BARKLEY
Windy conditions in New York like some other northeast spots this week and the bad Lions rush defense makes is that Barkley is worth paying for on a week where some of the high end WR and TE options aren’t appealing.
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I ALSO LIKE…
MILES SANDERS
The Philly ground game has lots of appeal for me. Their OL is much better than the Colts DL, which has been generous to opposing RB in recent weeks. So the path for the Eagles that I play out doesn’t include them getting shutout but if we aren’t pushing Hurts then what ARE we pushing? The loss of Dallas Goedert to me is huge for them and I expect more red zone work for Sanders.
DAVID MONTGOMERY
The Herbert injury aside I just feel Montgomery is going to get it going but maybe I am being stubborn.
BRIAN ROBINSON
Washington’s offensive line is playing better and should help Robinson do enough on the ground to warrant use.
ALVIN KAMARA
Kamara is a DraftKings pick not a FanDuel pick. He should see a bump in receptions against the Rams who he has always had strong games against and will dictate the ball coming out quick and underneath to him. Wouldn’t be shocked if he had 6+ catches in this game for the Saints and that’s why you want him on DK and not FD.
KENYAN DRAKE
With Gus Edwards potentially back for the Ravens I understand hesitation with using Drake off a good game pre the bye week. But with Lamar missing practice on Friday due to illness and a weak rushing defense opponent in the Panthers coming in I am willing to bank on the Ravens RB finding the end zone and Drake is not going to go away from that role just because Edwards is back
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
JONATHAN TAYLOR
Philly rush defense should come back to their dominant status this week.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
I really don’t have one this week. My WR picks are all mediocre and a lot of the top one offs are in the cold weather games. Diggs could definitely come out of nowhere in a spot that screams ground game but his price is just too insane. Same with Justin Jefferson IMO and outside of CeeDee Lamb I am not running to pay up a ton for WR this week, but it’s also not a week to immediately go cheap at WR.
I see lots of stacks starting to hit this week and would focus on correlation of 2 WR in the same game and a WR with your QB for sure this week.
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I ALSO LIKE…
CEEDEE LAMB / MICHAEL GALLUP
#1 target Lamb with Dak or go with Gallup. Your choice here, but don’t sleep on even doing both for a full all in stack.
BRANDIN COOKS
Cooks should just run circles through the Washington secondary. Everyone will be scared off after seeing them do well on MNF but this is still a dog shit secondary and Cooks’ speed so long that he wants to play will torch them.
COURTLAND SUTTON
I wont look to roster to many guys that aren’t in the DOME games this weekend but the one off to be a ‘safe’ pick has to be Sutton. With Jeudy out and the poor Raiders defense coming in Sutton should lead Denver in receptions & yards with a strong TD chance here too.
STEFON DIGGS
The move to Detroit just screams Diggs game.
ADAM THEILEN
Theilen hasn’t completely gone away yet, he has 7 targets over each of the last three weeks.
DARNELL MOONEY
Another reason to consider going away from Fields at QB would be him doing more damage with his WR than with his own legs this week. Mooney’s big play ability should be considered strongly.
DRAKE LONDON
Chicago’s pass defense by the end of the season should wind up finishing near the bottom due to changes in personnel they have had. So I am buying into that trend happening more than what has happened for the full season.
TEE HIGGINS
Chalky, not in love with him as much as I was been early in the week, but makes sense as #1 WR vs Pittsburgh.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
TERRY McLAURIN
Ground game should do the bulk of the lifting for Washington
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
KYLE PITTS
I hate this guy but this is as good of a Pitts spot as we will see all year.
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I ALSO LIKE…
TYLER HIGBEE
The Rams losing Kupp opens up a ton of targets and with Stafford being back they probably look to keep the passing within 5-10 yards.
TJ HOCKENSON
I love the game but as you see above no Cook or Jefferson and that’s because I expect the Vikings to work Hockenson more into the mix.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
MARK ANDREWS
Just dont have the need for Baltimore to air it out often. Lamar usually leans on Andrews in games they are trailing in.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
BRONCOS
We go to a cold weather game for defense and one with a good secondary to go against a banged up Raiders offense which probably has mailed things in.
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I ALSO LIKE…
RAVENS
TEXANS
Taylor Heinickie is not an every week kind of guy and the law of averages simply is too strong for me on him throwing two interceptions.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
SAINTS
Starting LDE, RDE, OLB, CB1 are all out. And for the record, they’re all pretty important to the Saints defense. This isn’t saying they give up 35+ points but they haven’t forced takeaways all season and really haven’t had a huge sack game either. Can’t see either of those happening this week.
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting OVERLOOKED this week and why is it DAK PRESCOTT?
The Fields mania is too bonkers right now and the rushing QB dominance comes to an end this week.
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
Barkley, Sutton, Pitts
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Question: Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE
Lamb
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Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Cowboys vs Vikings – Dak, Lamb, Gallup, Hockenson
Bears vs Falcons – Fields, Mooney, London, Pitts
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
Falcons -3
Rams +2.5
Cowboys ML
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Question: Upsets
Texans ML
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Question: Theme of the week
Dome games are much higher scoring for fantasy this week.
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