This is one of the bigger Bowl DFS slates that we will get, because sadly there is not one massive King of the Campus contest anymore on either site.
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- Florida vs Oregon State – SRS DIstribution Las Vegas Bowl (Dome)
- Washington State vs Fresno State – Jimmy F’n Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stiflers Mom (Dome)
- Rice vs Southern Miss – Lending Tree Bowl (Mobile, AL)
- SMU vs BYU – New Mexico Bowl … Should be the religion Bowl if you ask me (Albuquerque, NM)
- North Texas vs Boise State – Frisco Bowl presented by SERVPRO (Toyota Stadium)
No weather issues, but there is a game at 11:30 which is not on the slate between Cincinnati and Louisville and that’s being played at Fenway Park.
Washington State vs Fresno State (-4)
Out for Washington State: WR Donovan Ollie (portal), WR De’Zhaun Stribling (Portal)
Out for Fresno State: None
Seriously, who was the bright person that thought lets let Jimmy Kimmel sponsor the L.A. Bowl? At any rate, we got a good one on our hands here as we get to watch Jake Haener while the Sun is still out on the east coast and I am down for some fireworks in this game.
Fresno St. wants to throw it and lean on 5th year Senior Haener to shine which is good for them because Washington State is much stingier against the run unlike other teams on this slate.
The Bulldogs passing attack is my build on this game. Haener with one of his Senior WR’s in Jalen Moreno Cropper (7k) and Nikko Remigio (6.9k). Fresno State is loaded with Seniors at their key positions (Haner, Mims, Cropper, Remigio, Pope, Brooks).
And then we’ll run it back on the other end with the RB of course, Nakia Watson who seems to score every week for Washington State.
Key notes on the other games
Florida vs Oregon State
I do not mind attacking the Florida defense with Oregon State options. OSU should be able to get a great game from RB TreShaun Harrison.
Florida:
- QB is expected to be Jack Miller (4500) with Anthony Richardson going to the NFL draft
- RB should be Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne splitting the work
- WR Justin Shorter (NFL)
Oregon State:
- QB Ben Gulbranson expected to start
- WR Anthony Gould (15% Target Share) very questionable.
Southern Miss vs Rice
Southern Miss:
- Nothing major. Lowe (QB), Gore (RB) and Brownlee (WR) are all good to go and make for a very nice team stack.
RICE:
- QB will be AJ Padgett, could be mixed bag. We want no exposure here.
Boise State vs North Texas
This one is the second best game to look at stacking up. Boise State is a pretty strong favorite who should control the game with their ground attack but I expect Boise to hang around long enough in this one.
Boise State:
- None
North Texas:
- QB Austin Aune is playing – beware of a quick hook though if things are going poorly
BYU vs SMU
This one looks ugly. The BYU side is full of potential value in what could be a nice tempo game, but it’s very hard to project where to roll with them. Tanner Mordecai is cheap but missing his key stud WR in Rashee Rice.
Out for BYU:
- QB Jaren Hall (Doutbtful) – Cade Fennegan or Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters. You can bet its going to be SJMP because the announcers will struggle to say that all game.
- WR Puka Nacau (Questionable/Doubtful) – I would avoid
SMU
- WR Rashee Rice (NFL)
- WR Dylan Goffney (Out)
- WR Jake Bailey (Injured)
This slate sets up with favorable rushing spots more than passing spots, but we do have a few good Quarterbacks on it and a ton of value options
Jake Haener – Freseno State – $8,000
It’s a little pricey but you’ll be hard pressed to find another spot with upside than the Fresno State passing attack. They should ride Haener and their good WR’s here.
Taylen Green – Boise State – $7,200
Love the rushing game for Boise State. Green should score one on the ground which immediately vaults him into consideration. He had 8 rushing TD on the season and the North Texas rush defense was 109th in the nation.
Tanner Moredecai – SMU – $6,900
Tanner Moredecai looks too cheap to me. The BYU pass defense allowed a 65% completion rate and 54% touchdown rate on the season. The problem with full stacking this game is that there’s not a ton on the BYU side which entices me into this being a shootout.
Value Options
- Jack Miller – Florida – $4,500
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Nakia Watson – Washington State – $6,500
Great price, good match-up, best game on the board. Lock in on Watson.
Christopher Brooks – BYU – $6,300
We should be weary of BYU and what they wind up doing at Quarterback, but Brooks is very talented and they rode him heavy in their final regular season game. Unless they are completely going in a new direction in this game he should see 15+ carries again and the SMU rush defense was not good all season.
George Holani – Boise State – $7,700
Green or Holani could wind up hammering the slate for Boise State. Holani has a little bit of competition of late but I suspect they get him into the box.
Tyler Lavine – SMU – $5,400
Lavine is likely to benefit from some of the usage that Rashee Rice is vacating. He’s been getting the majority of their RB workload and benefits from a high powered QB getting them down the field fast.
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Jalen Moreno Cropper (7k) / Nikko Remigio ($6.9k) – Fresno State
Good luck picking which one. My gut says this is a Remigio game, but honestly that could just be the coffee talking. Both likely wind up getting near 20 DK FPTS.
Jordan Kerley – SMU – $5900
Kerley will see a bump in targets. Over the last 5 games the BYU pass defense allowed 73.8% completion rate, so if that holds up here then Kerley could have a massive catch game with RIce gone.
Jason Brownlee – USM – $6000
There isn’t much to load up on in the USM/Rice game, but between Gore/Brownlee the Southern Miss offense will run through one of them.
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
Running Back
Quarterback
Wide Receiver
CORE BUILD
Fresno State Stack (Haener/WR)
Nakia Watson
Punt with a 4500 QB or a 3000 RB (Lowe)
BETS
Southern Miss +6.5
Fresno State -4
Washington State / Fresno State OVER 53
Boise State +10.5