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NFL · January 1, 2023

NFL Week 17 – The AMBUSH

Week 17 – NFL Main Slate

Happy New Year everyone!

We have a much nicer weather this weekend around the league with temps in the 50’s and 60’s in some spots.

We also have a situation where FanDuel didn’t bother to pay attention to the SNF flex action this week and they have included the Steelers @ Ravens on their MAIN slate while not including the Chargers and Rams.  DraftKings paid attention and got the memo posting the correct slate of games.

THE AMBUSH PLAY

  1. Aaron Rodgers (DK: $6000, FD: $7100) … Very cheap on DraftKings and very motivated.  This should be an easy spot for him to put up 275 & 2 touchdowns as a nice floor.  At his price and with limited depth on this slate at QB that will do just fine.

 

ALSO LIKE

  1. Jared Goff (DK: $5600, FD: $7400) … Much better play on DraftKings at that discount.  Much chalkier play there too.  Don’t mind the ownership issues here.
  2. Justin Fields (DK: $7900, FD: $8400) … Prefer on FanDuel, but certainly that 100 yard rushing bonus could come in with one big run.

 

BE CAREFUL WITH

  1. Trevor Lawrence … This dates back to college a little but we’re starting to smell a rare trend with TLaw.  He stinks in domes.  Furthermore the Jags seem to get the yips against Houston and also do not need this game at all.  I like Etienne but not much else for the Jags offense in dfs.

 

THE AMBUSH PLAY

  1. Brian Robinson (DK: $5200, FD: $6900) … No Antonio Gibson here helps and the Browns rush defense shouldn’t suddenly emerge to start defending well on the road.  I think this game will play towards the over so Robinson may wind up losing some touches because they are trailing too but inside the 10 they better lean on him and not Wentz’s decisions.
  2. Saquon Barkley (DK: $8000, FD: $9200)
  3. Dalvin Cook (DK: $7000, FD: $8300) … You gotta attack Green Bay on the ground.  He’s bad big games in Lambeau and should get lots of touches here. Love his TD props too

 

ALSO LIKE

  1. Travis Etienne (DK: $6400, FD: $7700)
  2. James Conner (DK: $7200, FD: $8000)
  3. Michael Carter (DK: $5100, FD: $6100)

 

BE CAREFUL WITH

  1. Christian McCaffrey – SF is gonna get in and get the F out as quick as they can.  No reason to pound CMC.
  2. David Montgomery – Great spot, but Herbert and Fields eat into him too much at the price he is at.

THE AMBUSH PLAY

  1. Allen Lazard (DK: $5400, FD: $6200) … Hey look, Rodgers cares again.
  2. Garrett Wilson (DK: $5500, FD: $7300) … Welcome back to the Garret Wilson express.
  3. Amari Cooper (DK: $5800, FD: $7600) … Seems clear that Watson is most comfortable targeting Cooper, especially on third down.
  4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DK: $7800, FD: $8200) … Bears should not be able to cover him very well, if at all.  The only reason the Bears defensive stats aren’t worse is because they are getting killed on the ground so much.

 

ALSO LIKE

  1. Michael Pittman (DK: $6200, FD: $7200) … DK preferred in hopes of a high catch game.
  2. Drake London (DK: $4900, FD: $6700) … Better spot for Ridder to play well but the right play is London going 3x on DK
  3. Brandin Cooks (DK: $4800, FD: $6400) … This is just too low of a price for Cooks in an indoor game that has a little sneaky shootout potential in it as well.

 

BE CAREFUL WITH

  1. Justin Jefferson
  2. Tyreek Hill

 

THE AMBUSH PLAY

  1. Jelani Woods (DK: $2800, FD: $4700) … More of a punt/longshot on DraftKings, but a week where TE just looks boring as hell to me.  We could go cheap with Gesick as well but Jelanie is drawing a Giants defense which has ranked near the bottom each week vs TE and his recent uptick in usage could lead to a touchdown here today.

 

ALSO LIKE

  1. Cole Kmet
  2. Mike Gesicki
  3. Evan Engram
  4. Juwan Johnson

 

BE CAREFUL WITH

  1. Travis Kelce

 

THE AMBUSH PLAY

  1. San Francisco 49ers (DK: $2900, FD: $5000) … New QB, same crappy Raiders.  San Francisco has all the motivation they need to play well and should produce enough sacks + turnovers to be the easy DraftKings $2900 pick, worthy of chalk there.

ALSO LIKE

  1. Carolina Panthers (DK: $2400, FD: $3500) … The Bucs can’t protect Brady.  They can’t run the ball.  They won’t go off on Carolina.

 

BE CAREFUL WITH

  1. Atlanta Falcons … 49ers are just the better pick.

 

AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS

This is a crappy week.  In fact I almost like next week more because we can ride some end of season player incentive narratives more.  It’s been a long December with college football and this is basically like September Baseball, so just have fun with it today and try to not overthink if you should be locking in chalk or going contrarian.

Ride your gut.

 

CORE BUILD

Brian Robinson Jr

Allen Lazard

Jelani Woods

 

BETTING CARD 

Giants -5.5

Cleveland/Washington OVER 40.5

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