A great DFS day yesterday but a rough betting day for a big stretch as the Duke and Kansas losses hurt on the betting side and certainly my bracket projections as well.
On to Sunday, which has a ton of close spread games where my initial lean is on the dogs and also … on overs? We have seen unders dominate through the first three days but that’s going to come to a point where it evens out.
One more trend I continue to see. If one team jumps out to an early lead in the first 5-8 minutes, like 14-4 or 20-10, etc. and the other team manages to get back into the game before the end of the 1H, they will come back and likely win in the second half. Which in a year of teams not being dominant, kinda makes sense that teams cannot put other teams away.
TCU vs Gonzaga
My Frogs vs the team I picked to cruise through on the shoulders of Drew Timme. Honestly, either TCU knocks out Gonzaga with Mike Miles taking over as the MOP of the tourney so far or we see the massive Timme game today. It’s the late night hammer today too so you’ll be behind if you stack this game and hoping for the late hammer
- TCU: Mike Miles, JaKobe Coles
- Gonzaga: Drew Timme, Julian Strawther
Michigan State vs Marquette
Sparty upset? Marquette, much like Purdue, falls into the category of a team who was not a top-25 ranked team that finished as 1 or 2 seed in the tourney and that means an early exit normally. I like the better coach in this game which is Izzo and Michigan State should have no problem playing up tempo if Marquette wants to pressure. I see lots of good action in this game for DFS
- MSU: Tyson Walker, Jaden Aikens
- Marq: Oso Ighodaro
FDU vs Florida Atlantic
FAU is going to smoke FDU.
- FDU: Joe Munden
- FAU: Alijah Martin, Vladislav Goldin, Johnell Davis
Pittsburgh vs Xavier
First game of the day, which is a good time to look at an under but with the way these two are playing I don’t see that holding up for very long. I wanna take Pitt to win overall but third game in this week should catch up to them having to run with Xavier. DFS purposes though don’t overload here, the prices are too high on Xavier guys so you are banking on just one going off.
- Pitt: Jamarius Burton, Nelly Cummings
- Xavier: Colby Jones
Key Three
Alijah Martin – FAU – 6700
FAU is going to destroy FDU. The FDU win over Purdue was 95% Purdue just not knowing how to win a game with their poor team that should have been a 10 seed. FAU is going to out run FDU and prove that they should not have been a 9 seed themselves. Don’t sleep on the Owls who got past a good Memphis team.
Oh, Sorry, you want analysis on Martin here? The three ball for starters, he’ll take 5-6 of them today, connect on 4 and haul in a few rebounds, an assist and I think 2-3 steals are coming here today from him and/or Johnell Davis.
Drew Timme – Gonzaga – 9300
Missed on Jalen Wilson yesterday as the rest of the Jayhawks were carrying them but today it’s Timme who I am going to ride in the best game of the day and a spot where the heart and soul of the Zags will need to bring his team through to the sweet 16.
Mike Miles Jr – TCU – 6900
I see no reason why you would not have Miles at this price in your lineup today. The guard is going to shine tonight for the frogs.
VALUE CORE
Trey Galloway – Indiana – 3900
This slate has a ton of depth in the 6k-7k range at Guard which I like but forward is a spot where we have to pay up and I want that Miles/Timme correlation in the last game. So I am fine shifting down to the sub 4k range for our value option today. Galloway for sure will see the time he normally gets against the guard heavy Hurricanes and we aren’t looking for a ton here.
Additional Guards
- Mike Miles – TCU – 6900
- Jamarius Burton – Pitt – 7200
- Tyson Walker – Mich St – 7300
- Trey Alexander – Creighton – 6400
- Keyonte George – Baylor – 6900
- Nelly Cummings – Pitt – 6000
- Isaiah Wong – Miami – 7500 … If the slate wasn’t so deep at guard he would be higher.
Additional Forwards
- Vladislav Goldin – FAU – 5800
- Oso Ighodaro – Marquette – 7300
- Keyontae Johnson – Kansas St – 8000
- Jalen Bridges – Baylor – 6800
VALUE OPTIONS
- JaKobe Coles – TCU – 4900
- Malik Hall – Mich St – 5100
- Miller Kopp – Indiana – 4700
VALUE PUNT OPTIONS
- Trey Galloway – Indiana – 3900
TOP BETS
View Tournament Pick Tracker Here
Here are my thoughts on all the games today with the top 4 ranked in BOLD …
- Creighton vs Baylor … I do not believe in Baylor playing well two games in a row. Creighton ML. Sharpie.
- Miami +1.5: Omier and Miller can handle TJD and Indiana’s guards aren’t going to be able to contain Isiah Wong who was just off on Friday night but takes over in the 2H today although this is an under 146.5
- Kansas State ML: I have them in the final four. Of course we are taking them here and probably under 145, but Kentucky likes to start fast so look at the in game under.
- Mich St / Marquette over 141.5: I expect Marquette to try and push the tempo and out score Michigan State and Izzo will be grinning ear to ear. Like MSU to win here as well.
Entertaining / In game betting spots:
- Saint Marys vs UCONN … Great offenses, good defenses and teams who like to utilize the full shot clock on their possessions. If UCONN can get out and run then they run away with this. But I have seen enough UCONN this year to assure you they will go up 8 then be down 5. Live betting middle wet dream game take Saint Mary’s +3.5
- Pittsburgh +5: Third game in the week for Pitt is some concern given how up tempo Xavier likes to play, so we may want to try and keep an eye out for a fast Pitt start followed by Xavier coming back late.
Go Light Games:
- FDU vs FAU: FAU -14.5, it’s a tough pill to swallow for sure, I get it. That’s my pick though. Might be easier to just stay away or take the FAU team total over.
- TCU/Gonzaga: over 155.5 / TCU +4.5