Today’s features on the MLB menu include a 2 game early slate, this MAIN 4PM 9 game slate and then a 4 game pass out Saturday night slate.
TBD on doing an article for that late 4 game slate.
WEATHER
Every thing on this 4PM slate will play and all games are actually starting at 4:05 or 4:10, there’s no 5pm or 6pm games included here.
TOP ARM(S)
Logan Gilbert (DK: $10,300)
This has been a very weird season for Gilbert. He’s either been rolling out and giving up lots of hits and some early inning struggles or cruising along with decent results. And of late he has been more bad then good allowing 6 HR over his last 5 starts combined and some low strikeout rates in that span too.
The White Sox could just be the cure he needs. They are 18th vs four-seamers and 27th in xWOBA vs Sliders on the season, a potential advantage for Gilbert to get going early and cruise through with a nice 6 inning clean bounce back game.
SECONDARY ARMS
Hunter Greene (DK: $9000, FD: $10.2k)
The ‘cheap’ options today leave a lot to be desired, but so do the mid range guys as well. The upside of Greene is the obvious fact that his velo could negate Houston’s strength of not striking out.
Jake Irvin (DK)
Jake’s best pitch so far has been his breaking-ball, which coincidentally is the Marlins worst pitch as an entire lineup. Sometimes we’ll over analyze pitch type metrics because there’s a lot more variables which go into that type of information, but we also should have some strong winds blowing in from LF in Nats Park today and I would suspect the Marlins are a chalky ‘value’ team too with tons of cheap bats throughout the lineup. If you want a leverage play for cheap, Irvin is my favorite choice.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
Don’t ‘pay up’ for pitching to try and get stud performances. You would pay up on this slate simply to avoid getting negative or less than 6 points total.
I don’t like Braxton Garrett because he relies on opponents chasing a ton, something the Nationals don’t do.
RANGERS
Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung
Please let me know when Seager’s homer lands. Toronto turning to Trevor Richards against this lineup, even if he is slated to only throw 40-50 pitches is really really really bad.
PIRATES
Andrew McCutchen, KeBryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
Love Cutch and Hayes, they’re among the top picks at their position today in my mind, with Wade Miley we’ll either get a blowup or some crafty 4-5 innings, but more times than not you get that blow up early.
OTHER GOOD SPOTS
- Blue Jays – Guerrerro, Bichette, Springer
- Phillies – Harper, Castellanos
- Reds – India, Cruz
- Braves – Riley, Ozuna
CATCHER
- Mitch Garver / Jonah Heim. If both are in, go Garver
- Sean Murphy
- Jorge Alfaro
FIRST BASE
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Ty France
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- Jeff McNeil
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
- Josh Jung
- KeBryan Hayes
- Ryan McMahon
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Francisco Lindor
- Bobby Witt Jr
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Bryce Harper
- Andrew McCutchen
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- TJ Friedl
- Adolis Garcia
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Value
- Ramon Laureano
- Lane Thomas
- Marcell Ozuna
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Mariners
- Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pirates
- Nate Lowe – 1B – Rangers
- Jonathan India – 2B – Reds
- KeBryan Hayes – 3B – Pirates
- Mitch Garver – C – Rangers
- BONUS ……………………… Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Blue Jays / Rangers
- Phillies / Athletics
- Pirates / Brewers
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- White Sox / Mariners
- Reds / Astros
- Angels / Royals
ML Targets
- Rangers
- Nationals
- Phillies
- Angels
- Pirates
- Reds