Almost August, which means we are getting closer to the weekends shifting to College & Pro Football and away from Baseball. This is also usually the best sneaky time for MLB DFS, so lets find some gems out there. Tonight we have a good 13-game Saturday night slate.
WEATHER
Big threat of storms in Atlanta, typical Summer stuff down there. Game probably gets played okay though.
Let’s call this the master of 5 innings slate tonight because there’s so many pitchers going who are capping out around 70 pitches and 5 innings.
TOP THREE OPTIONS
BRANDON PFAADT — DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,200
Pfaadt and Orioles top SP prospect Grayson Rodriguez were two hot young names coming into 2023 and both struggled in their initial call-up to the big leagues before going back to the minors to work on things. Grayson has figured it out and Pfaadt looks to be doing the same. He’s also going to get a great boost here with Seattle’s strikeout problems even though they have calmed down some over the last week. My theory on young hitting young also does not work in here because that Seattle lineup besides Julio is a veteran team, If he pitches like he did in Cincinnati he’ll be among the top SP options today.
JAMES PAXTON — DK: $9,900 | FD: $10,400
The Giants are among the bottom 5 teams in hitting over the last week, and do not hit as well at home. Just a couple soft reasons to be comfortable with Paxton, who is continuing to have a good season and continues to do well vs RHH with a near 33% strikeout rate. Given the Giants are likely to roll out a bunch of RHH blindly I like him to have a good game.
BAILEY OBER — DK: $10,300 | FD: $10,200
The Royals won a game last night. If they win again today, that would be two in a row. If they win again tomorrow that, would be a winning streak. It has happened before… It’s not happening here though.
Take the Twins to the bank my friend and back Ober to go 6 innings, strikeout 7 and leave with the W.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
- Logan Allen & Mike Clevinger just missed the cut for me… I don’t think its too much to think they could be in a nice pitchers duel either….
- Aaron Nola is pitching VERY well of late, the real question is can he beat out Paxton and Ober to justify paying extra for him? I’m not bothered with fading Nola.
- Carlos Carrasco vs Patrick Corbin on a Saturday night in Queens is something else to behold. Watch these bozo’s get locked up in some quiet pitchers duel that nobody wants a part of. We’ll just fade this game completely and hope that mother nature wipes the game off the slate.
- Yes…. That is Chris Flexen Deez Nuts pitching for the Rockies in Coors against Oakland.
- Yes…. That is Julio Teheran back in Atlanta.
TWINS, BRAVES, ATHLETICS, ROCKIES
These are probably among the chalkier spots tonight and they’re all very good options. I have a sneaky feeling the Athletics/Rockies game in Coors is going to live up to the true Coors hype tonight.
Atlanta is too expensive to stack fully, you’ll want to decide between Albies and Olson, I believe Ozzie takes Julio deep.
The Twins on the other hand are cheap and get another shot against Royals pitching, likely not striking out as much as they did vs Singer last night since it is Jordan Lyles. So back to the Twins well as the #1 stack, with Coors second for me.
- #1: Minnesota: Julien, COrrea, Kiriloff, Kepler
- #2: Coors: McMahon/Tovar/Cron (COL) … Rooker, Diaz, Bleday, Laureano (OAK)
- #3: Diamondbacks: Marte, Carroll, Canzone … Love Canzone and Carroll
CATCHER
- Adley Rutschmann
- Yan Gomes
- Punt it…
FIRST BASE
- Freddie Freeman
- CJ Cron
- Alex Kiriloff
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Jordan Diaz
- Nolan Gorman
- Bryson Stott
THIRD BASE
- Ryan McMahon
- Alec Bohm
- Jake Burger
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Xander Bogaerts
- Ezequiel Tovar
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Yordan Alvarez
- Brent Rooker
- Corbin Carroll
- Bryce Harper
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Christian Yelich
- Jack Suwinski
- Bryan Reynolds
- JJ Bleday
OUTFIELD – Value
- Dominic Canzone
- Max Kepler
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Houston Astros
- Dominic Canzone – OF – Diamondbacks
- lex Kiriloff – 1B – Twins
- Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
- Adley Rutschman – C – Orioles
- BONUS ………………… Jack Suwinski – OF – Pirates
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Brewers/Braves
- Athletics/Rockies
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Guardians/White Sox
- Nationals/Mets
ML Targets
- Rockies
- Pirates
- Orioles
- Diamondbacks