We are officially back for the start of another College Football Season and this one is taking us up to the official end of an era as there will be a lot of conference changes after this season and also the expansion of the CFB Playoff (finally!).
As usual, we have a light Week 0 slate and as usual we do not have the same schedule between FanDuel and DraftKings.
I will say that FanDuel’s prize pools to start this season aren’t as bad as I expected them to be, which is a nice sign, but from a content angle it’s really annoying to see them run completely different slates than DraftKings. The model is DraftKings focused, yes, we have a model — you should use it. I will be working again to ramp up the FanDuel version to make it a little more user friendly and faster than last years version again this year.
All content will remain focused on DK and if I have a thought or three on FD I will notate it at the bottom of the article.
Let’s first cover the games as always
DK Main Slate:
- San Jose State vs USC
- Florida International vs Louisiana Tech
- Hawaii vs Vanderbilt
- Ohio vs San Diego State
- UMass vs New Mexico State
For the FanDuel crowd they have included Navy vs Notre Dame and UTEP vs Jacksonville State
I wouldn’t say that we have that one massive game we’re loading up on even on a short 5 game slate for Week 0. We’ll see how much the clock rule change for CFB impacts game stacking this season as well. In case you don’t know, CFB no longer will be stopping the clock to reset the yardage markers after a first down. Something which often times lended towards longer games and more snaps being able to get off. While I think it DOES impact game stack upside, I don’t think it is going to be as massive of a shift in DFS strategy as you think — the scores are just going to be lower across the board.
We want to continue to correlate our builds between two teams in the same game and we want to continue to not be afraid to stack two teams from different games together.
The bottom line in this section is that I am outlining the games which likely have the best tempo or upside for high scoring action.
SAN JOSE ST vs USC
It’s the highest total on the board and it also has the best combination of Quarterbacks as Caleb Williams and anyone else would be considered the best QB combination but as a bonus we have the Senior Chevan Cordeiro who himself threw for 3200 yards with San Jose St a year ago — and also as a little extra narrative is a Hawaiian trying to play for his homeland here.
Either way, USC should let Caleb go off, their WR depth will exploit San Jose St and the Spartans combination of Cordeiro to Lockhart should pay off enough to justify game stacking that combination as well.
Stack: Caleb Williams, Dorian Singer, Chevan Cordeiro, Justin Lockhart
HAWAII vs VANDERBILT
Yes, the Hawaii narrative given the fires is one thing, but it’s also Vanderbilt folks. I don’t think they’ll suddenly be a much better team this season.
Stack: Tylan Hines, Jonah Panoke, Will Sheppard
Caleb Williams (USC)
Future #1 pick and likely Heisman Candidate in a spot where he can make an early statement with a 4 TD game and double up every other QB on the board. Yeah, there’s a path to fading him, I won’t be on that path.
Chevan Cordeiro (San Jose St)
If you go with 2 QB (not a must in CFB DFS unlike what folks tell you), you should strongly look at the game stack here. We know Cordeiro can deliver when he is on and I don’t think USC’s defense is going to be in shutdown mode out of the gates.
Third Best Option:
- Kurtis Rourke (Ohio) … Coming off torn ACL last year, but should be good to go.
Tylan Hines (Hawaii) … Hines should touch the ball 20+ times and is sub $5000 with talent. Why in the world would he not be 100% owned this week even if RB is somewhat deep given a limited slate.
Sieh Bangura (Ohio) … Do not adjust your calendars, it’s not late October/early November MACTion time just yet, but we do have a bunch of familiar faces on the Bearcats who warrant consideration this week — led by Bangura who when he touched the ball 15+ times last season always scored. The Aztecs defense is more middle of the pack and Ohio has weapons to keep the chains moving and drive up the touches/RZ chances for Sieh.
Star Thomas (New Mexico St) … The worst game on the slate has another value RB option as Thomas is just $5200 and facing the 102nd ranked rush defense from a year ago — at home, as a favorite. Checking all the favorite RB boxes here for a third FLEX RB option.
Also Consider
- Charvis Thornton (Louisiana Tech) … I really like the La. Tech passing game here more than the ground spot, but a cheap fill-in option here to possibly punch a short yardage touchdown in. Not a CORE/Main lineup option though.
- Shomari Lawrence (FIU) … He’s defaulted into the starting spot here, not a big fan of that elevation.
Will Sheppard (Vanderbilt) … Sheppard saw 35% of the Vandy targets a season ago and managed to get 5 receptions a game for 776 yards. He should beat out that reception average against Hawaii and thus he’ll get over 2x simply off his catches alone. A touchdown (highly probable) and the guy is going to be virtually a must own. He is by far the #1 DFS play at WR this week.
Dorian Singer (USC) … Singer is the big transfer from Arizona for Caleb Williams to work with and I’ll wager my money on the Trojans finding a way to get Singer a touchdown in his first game — if not two. Of all the options USC has this week, I’ll bite on the new toy getting fed the most volume early in this game & we don’t need to worry too much about chasing USC depth/value with other plays on this slate.
Smoke Harris (La Tech) … I mentioned how I see the La. Tech passing game thriving this week & that means all the Smoke (Harris). A big time target monster, who if you fade Hank Bachmeier (likely 2nd highest owned QB) you can still get some exposure to that passing game through Harris. 7 catches for 75 yards and a score is a floor expectation I have here but the ceiling is limited because they probably get some run through other WR options like Cyrus Allen and Tru Edwards.
Justin Lockhart (San Jose St) … I am a big Justin Lockhart fan, and I don’t mean the kid I knew who signed with the Texas Rangers as a pitcher that I knew when he was a kid. This Lockhart is way more athletic and is my sleeper on this slate.
Also Consider:
- Jonah Panoke – 5400 – Hawaii
- Brenden Rice – 6200 – USC
- Kris Mitchell – 5900 – FIU
DRAFTKINGS CORE
QB – Caleb Williams (USC)
RB – Tylan Hines (Hawaii)
WR – Will Sheppard (Vandy)
WR – Dorian Singer (USC)
FANDUEL SLATE NUGGETS
I am optimistic about Sam Hartman with the Irish this season carrying over to have a good year, but against Navy isn’t exactly the spot to justify paying for him.
The other FD only game has a really good play in Tyrin Smith (WR – UTEP). He is $9,000 on FanDuel, but a better option than Smoke Harris at 8700.
FD Rankings
QB: Caleb, Cordeiro, Rourke
RB: Tylan Hines, Star Thomas
WR: Tyrin Smith, Dorian Singer
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
3 RB slate
BETS
Going light tomorrow for official plays. May have more in Discord/Live.
- Louisiana Tech -7
- Hawaii/Vanderbilt OVER 51.5