Welcome to the 2023 edition of the NFL DFS Ambush…
Couple adjustments for the long time readers. There was quite a bit redundancy in last years article as I gave you my ‘Ambush’ play and then did my favorite ‘CORE’ builds per site at the end. So really, you can assume as always, the player I list first is my preferred pick at that position specifically and then I’ll cover roster construction in the summary ‘Ambush’ section at the end.
As always, we just cover the top plays at each position and not a full length write up on every player who dons an NFL uniform each week. But first, lets start with some weekly theories.
- Overs are going to come through early in the season. This didn’t fully come to fruition in the Lions/Chiefs game, but the potential was there if the Chiefs guys just catch the fucking ball. Look for overs to dominate finally after a few years of lots of under and 20-17 type games.
- Weather isn’t an issue. Remember last Christmas Eve when we had nothing but 5 degree games? Well, yeah, it’s gonna be hot tomorrow. But that is not going to really draw anything away from looking at games. In fact, it makes us jump on spots like GB/CH, CIN/CLE that later in the year you might avoid.
LATE INJURY NEWS
- Mark Andrews (DOUBTFUL) … This opens things up for the WR even more, but ultimately those RZ touchdowns gotta go somewhere. I would not chase other TE for Baltimore but rather Dobbins…
TREVOR LAWRENCE (DK: $6500, FD: $8000)… This is my MVP pick for 2023, and I have preached that you need to ride your early season predictions in the first month of the season. Lawrence going into Indianapolis certainly is far from a bad spot too.
JORDAN LOVE (DK: $5000, FD: $6400) … New ERA, new QB, same ole Packers vs Bears match-up. Seriously, did DraftKings not realize that Aaron Rodgers went to the Jets? Obviously they did given the promotions for the Jets this season, but hello, 5k? My dog could come out and be a viable option versus the Bears this week and he has a gimply back left leg. Jordan Love is going to carve up Chicago with not only his own legs for a little rushing yards here but connect with Watson and Doubs signalling the start of a new era in Green Bay.
DEREK CARR (DK: $5300, FD: $7000) … This should be one of the higher pass attempt/conversion spots for Carr all season long. The Titans will once again be a funnel towards some big plays in the passing game, but they combat that normally by trying to just rush 4 and play as much coverage as possible. I expect open opportunities for Michael Thomas over the middle and when Carr has time he’ll connect with Shaheed on a deep pass. We’re gonna get 2 TD from Carr for sure, the question is can we get the third which at $5300 makes him a very viable option.
KENNETH WALKER II (DK: $6000, FD: $7100) … This could become an ugly game. The Rams are honestly a disaster of equal portion to what the Cardinals are, only they have Aaron Donald. But you beat the Rams by running on them and I really doubt L.A. gets much going offensively here either — leading to extra possessions and extra short yardage spots for the ground game to punch it in for touchdowns.
NICK CHUBB (DK: $8200, FD: $8600) … One thing that is true every year with NFL Week 1 DFS is too much value on the slate, and with that the analysis tends to overload on “hey, play this guy because he is too cheap”, and thus the high end guys get overlooked. All the attention is going to go towards Austin Ekeler in the same price range, but Nick Chubb, also at home and facing an equally favorable match-up is a preference for me. The full off-season DeShaun Watson had to work in this system should mean more scoring drives early for the Browns, and thus more red-zone opportunities. Home RB, high scoring game, definitive #1 back. He’s scoring and maybe twice.
JK DOBBINS (DK: $6600, FD: $6500) … Lamar is back and I’m sure he tries to keep one for himself, but with Dobbins being sub 7k on both sites we’re okay if he gets vultured so long as the volume throughout the game remains. If Dobbins can finally stay healthy he should takeover as the true #1 for Baltimore all season and starting off against Houston in a game I do think the Ravens will control is a nice game flow for him to reach 70-90 yards rushing and hopefully snag a TD.
ALSO DONT MIND
SEMAJE PERINE (DK: $5100, FD: $6000) … Welcome to the Sean Payton ERA in Denver where the focus early on is going to be putting the offense in favorable 3rd down situations, ball control and relying on a good defense early while taking the appropriate shots when presented on offense. This all sets up for the RB to have a good game and I think you’ll see a drastic increase in receptions for all the Denver backs. Perine at 5100 is a nice value on DK.
SLEEPER
TYJAE SPEARS (DK: $4900, FD: $5300) … The transition from Henry to Spears might take a while but it’s something I strongly believe will occur for the Titans. Spears is my favorite RB out of this years draft class and certainly has strong New Orleans/South Louisiana ties. I expect the Saints rush defense to be a little sluggish out of the gate as they have a lot of turnover (and rookies ) up front and their secondary is going to dictate teams to try and run the ball more. Look for a big run from Spears in this game.
JAHAN DOTSON (DK: $5000, FD: $6100) … Boy this sure does feel like the ‘obvious’ but not popular enough spot, no? Dotson shined in year one and McLaurin was banged up late in the pre-season. The Howell-Dotson connection is fine, the Cardinals pass defense isn’t gonna be stout and Washington is going to score some points tomorrow in front of a crowd which will make it feel like 1991 in Southeast Washington, DC.
JaMARR CHASE (DK: $8100, FD: $8500) … Somewhere someone is probably writing up Jefferson, Hill and Chase. Cmon, make a stand. It’s Chase who should be the #1 guy all year long & if the Browns do what I think they will offensively to the Bengals then his game flow is going to be VERY positive. Tyreek Hill is #2 among the pay ups this week for me but Chase is the best WR in football and shall remind everyone of that.
TYREEK HILL (DK: $8800, FD: $8800) … Couple reasons I like Chase and Hill more than Jefferson. The first is definitely game flow, but for Hill he has long had a history of destroying the Chargers & a lot of that should hold true here too. Tua’s gonna play MUCH better than the SNF game a year ago in this spot & just get him the ball quick letting him YAC his way to a big game. For exposure here, I’ll pay up to Reek.
MICHAEL THOMAS (DK: $5100, FD: $6000) … Blah, Blah, Blah with the whole Juwan Johnson stuff. Sure, I hope he scores. The guy that called Carr first when the Saints were courting him was Michael Thomas. The guy who needs this game the most is Michael Thomas. The guy that Carr will hit 6 times in the first half alone? Michael Thomas… Yes, I love Shaheed tomorrow too but his work would come on one big play. Thomas is volume pick for Week 1.
CHRISTIAN KIRK (DK: $5600, FD: $6900) … Get used to many weeks of considering Trevor Lawrence naked, but when we have one of Kirk or Ridley below 6k on DraftKings I think you should look long and hard there.
SUB $5,500 TOUCHDOWN CALLS
RASHOD BATEMAN (DK: $5300, FD: $6100)
ROMEO DOUBS (DK: $4400, FD: $5300)
NICO COLLINS (DK: $4700, FD: $5800)
GEORGE PICKENS (DK: $5000, FD: 5800)
SUB $4K VALUE
Rasheed Shaheed … The need, for Shaheed. Speed vs the Titans and on the home turf should shine. He was banged up a little bit in training camp but looks fully clear and will see his regular rotational work.
Joshua Palmer
TJ HOCKENSON (DK: $5900, FD: $7200) … A little tougher pill to swallow on FanDuel, but a big reason why I am not on Jefferson is Hockenson. Tampa’s not gonna be better vs TE & Cousins throwing to the TE in the red zone seems about as sure thing as we have on this slate.
DALLAS GOEDERT (DK: $5000, FD: $6400) … The more things change the more they stay the same. Belichek taking away the teams strength which means Dallas will not get taken away.
HAYDEN HURST (DK: $3000, FD: $5000) … Annual tradition of searching for a value TE to look at building around and a TE is a rookie QB’s best friend. Atlanta was 25th in yards to TE a season ago but this defense essentially upgraded everything but their mascot in the off-season on defense, so I think they’ll be stronger in some areas, but this is not one of them.
The signs are on the wall as DraftKings is floating out Super-Flex contests now with decent prize pools. The days of Defense in DFS might be numbered folks.
- Commanders (DK)
- Broncos (DK/FD)
- Steelers (DK/FD)
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player
JaMarr CHase
Favorite Core Builds
Lawrence, Walker, Thomas, Dotson
Favorite Pay Up
J. Chase
Game Stacks
Bengals vs Browns
Cardinals vs Commanders
Favorite Bets
Seahawks -4.5 (Survivor Pick)
Browns ML
Steelers ML
Dolphins +3
Patriots +3.5
Titans/Saints over 41
Broncos ML + Seahawks ML Parlay
Upset Calls
Browns, Steelers, Dolphins
Games I want very little or no part of in DFS for Building 1-3 lineups
- Eagles at Patriots (Okay, Goedert)
- Panthers at Falcons
Games I am less on than the public
- Bucs at Vikings
- Dolphins at Chargers
WINNERS OF THE WEEK
Panthers, Ravens, Browns, Jaguras, Vikings, Saints, Steelers, Commanders, Packers, Broncos, Dolphins, Patriots, Seahawks