The AMBUSH – NFL Week 6

WEATHER & SLATE NOTES

• Windy with some rain chances between Vikings/Bears
• Expected rain between 49ers and Browns
• Slight chance of rain between Seahawks and Bengals

LATE INJURY NEWS

• Bears RB situation is a mess.  They will be going with D’Onta Foreman and Khari Blasingame today.  Foreman is actually cheaper than Blasingame on DK which is just mind boggling stupid.
• QB’s Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson obviously out, so there’s some cheap and stupid fill in QB options there.
• Saints TE Juwan Johnson is out.  Likely a good boost for Taysom Hill in the passing game
• Sam LaPorta questionable for Detroit
• Eagles are without Jalen Carter and Darius Slay

 

GAMES I LIKE

• Seahawks at Bengals
• Colts at Jaguars
• Patriots at Raiders
• Eagles at Jets

GAMES I DONT TRUST

• Vikings at Bears … You have two dumb teams with guys out and some typical Chicago weather.  I understand the temptation on this game with some value spots, but I really do not trust either team.
• Saints at Texans … The Saints have never played well in Houston.  NEVER.  Outside of week 3 of the 2009 pre-season this is just a spot that scares the piss out of me as a Saints fan.  Houston’s been a good team in DFS this year, and their whole lineup is cheap, but how can one trust this game?

 

THE AMBUSH PLAY

JALEN HURTS (DK: $8200, FD: $8700) … Normally QB is not a spot I would automatically pay up for, but as I went through RB, WR and TE this week I found myself not jumping up to any massive pay up studs.  This eventually lead to circling back and finding the right QB option which Hurts kept jumping up and down like an annoying kid in Elementary school wanting to be picked by the teacher.

The first thing we always need with someone like Hurts is the chance for a good game tempo, and I see the Jets only trusting their passing game vs the Eagles defense, so the possessions should be good here & you can run on the Jets side, so Hurts doing damage with his legs feels safe.  We’ll need a rushing TD or two here, but I like the chances for a nice 1 yard plunge from Hurts to make it pay off.

OTHERS I LIKE

Nobody.  Literally, nobody.

OTHER QB NOTES

Honestly, there was nobody else I leaned into trying to justify.  So it’s a bunch of “meh” cheap options out there today with the list of options including Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, Mac Jones and Gardner Minshew.  It’s just so damn ugly that I’ll circle back and play Hurts when in doubt.

THE AMBUSH PLAY

JOE MIXON (DK: $6300, FD: $7000) … Gut call.  Do we all remember the Joe Mixon smash game against Carolina last year?  This isn’t quite going to be that volume, but this is a classic Joe Mixon 80-90 yards rushing with 1+ TD locked in spot.  Seattle’s secondary looks vulnerable on paper against Chase and Higgins, but I trust them to come up with a game plan to attack Burrow and Cincy should be smart to pound the rock with Mixon.  The Bengals are about to go into a BYE, they really should treat this like a get in and get out without taking on more water spot.

RAHEEM MOSTERT (DK: $6400, FD: $5500) … Clearly with Achane going on IR there is a natural shift to assume Mostert is going to eat up all his points.  I don’t see that being an automatic scenario, however, with a cheap price and a soft matchup against Carolina, you definitely should just go ahead and not risk it with fading Mostert.

ALSO LIKE …

KYREN WILLIAMS (DK: $6500, FD: $8200) … Much better play on DraftKings than paying up for $8200 on FD.  Cardinals are bottom third against the rush and second half volume based on the game script will be in Kyren’s favor.

JOSH JACOBS (DK: $7000, FD: $8000) … There’s juice in this game today.  I will take the over and pray that the Patriots can figure something out on offense.  For Vegas with Jimmy G seemingly banged up every other second I would be shocked if they tried to let him come out and do a ‘revenge’ type narrative here against the former team, and obviously you have the coaching narratives as well.  Load up on Jacobs Vegas, don’t be stupid, hand him the ball 20 times and gash it down the Patriots throat.

VALUE …

This slate gives us a few cheap value RB options that justify going 3 RB today.

D’ONTA FOREMAN … His major draw back is Justin Fields obviously, but with a windy day and some rain there’s no reason not to think Foreman as the lone Bears RB option won’t do well.

KEAONTAY INGRAM … Unlike Foreman, Ingram should not have to contend with his QB taking a ton of rushing yards away and if Hollywood Brown is out due to illness then I think Ingram’s chances of having a perfect game here are even greater.  Lord knows the Cardinals shouldn’t be passing it much vs the Rams, so a steady dose of Ingram at $4500 on DK isn’t that bad.

 

THE AMBUSH PLAYS

CHRISTIAN KIRK (DK: $5400, FD: $6600) .. While Ridley looks more flashy, it’s Kirk who is the steady #1 for Lawrence and should have a great game once again vs the Colts.

MICHAEL PITTMAN (DK: $6300, FD: $6500) … Finally gets a QB that might be able to let him have a huge game.  The game plan for Indianapolis has trusted him lately and while you could look here and say, this is a Jonathan Taylor welcome to the 2023 game, I think Minshew is gonna be trusted to air it out vs Jacksonville and Pittman has always had good games vs the Jags.

GARRETT WILSON (DK: $6000, FD: $6900) … Very tough game to get a confident read on.  Slay being out will further open up (both Zach & Garrett) Wilson to have success and plenty of it in the slot as well.  Eagles still have a good DL and decent options in the secondary, however, I would trust Wilson to get his today.

Studs I like:   DK Metcalf, either of the Eagles big 2, Amon-Ra St. Brown

MID RANGE

MICHAEL THOMAS (DK: $4900, FD: $5900) … This is just too cheap, I’m sorry.  Houston’s pass defense gives up a high comp % and the underneath passing for Thomas will get him a 5+ catch game today for 50+ yards.  Take that floor any day of the week IMO when you have a good environment for him to get into the endzone as well.

Also like in this range:   Drake London, Terry McLaurin

THE VALUE

KJ OSBORN (DK: $4400, FD: $6200) .. With lots of eyeballs going over to Brandon Powell or even Jordan Addison I will take the volume boost for KJ Osborn, who has been here before and should have Cousins trust.

DEVANTE PARKER (DK: $3500, FD: $5200)

 

No Kelce, no Andrews and no I am not going to mention Kyle Pitts…  Weak list of TE out there today folks, so don’t bother paying down here.

LOGAN THOMAS (DK: $3500, FD: $5400) … Until this cheat code doesn’t work two weeks in a row, we are going to continue to hammer it.  TE Touchdowns vs the Falcons.

COLE KMET (DK: $4200, FD: $6100) … Short passing game today for Justin Fields could come into play, opening up the TE volume for Kmet.

Also dont mind:  Taysom Hill (NO), Tyler Higbee (LAR), Dallas Goedert (PHI)

49ERS … Not really sure how Cleveland moves the ball consistently enough.  Can we get enough sacks and turnovers though for this to really pay off?

DOLPHINS … $500 discount off the 49ers.

BUCCANEERS … There’s a weird defensive Score in this game.  Take that to the bank.

 

AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS

Most overlooked player(s):  

Jalen Hurts & the Eagles offense

 

Favorite Core Builds:  

Hurts – Mixon – Kirk – Thomas

 

Favorite Pay Up Spots

Jalen Hurts & Brown/D.Smith

 

Game Stacks

Eagles/Jets

Seahawks/Bengals

Patriots/Raiders

 

Favorite Bets

Giants +15 (SNF)

Patriots/Raiders OVER 41.5

Eagles/Jets OVER 42.5

Seahawks +3

 

Upset Calls

Seattle ML