WEATHER
- ATL/CAR: Lots of rain, zero fans.
- CHI/CLE: Little bit of rain, lots of beer.
- NYJ/MIA: Chance of Thunderstorms
- DAL/BUF: This sucks. This absolutely sucks. Can I speak to the manager please? Yes, hi. I don’t know if you know who I am here, but I am over 40 years old and you see, when I was a kid we had these awesome games in December where I got to sit around the house and see highlights of guys playing in this white stuff we called SNOW. You know where those games often were played? Buffalo! So when I see 50% chance of precipitation and December and a game in Buffalo I dream of Shady McCoy running while in the snow and a barn burner game. What the hell is this 47 degrees weather? Where is Al Gore? Can I speak with Al Gore about this global warming bullshit? Thank you…
GAME COMMENTS
Falcons vs Panthers: Jake Delhomme vs Michael Vick would be fun. Shit. Matt Ryan vs Cam Newton would be fun. Fuuuuck. Scott Chandler vs Steve Buerlien would be fun. This….. This, aint fun.
Bears vs Browns: There’s something about this game that is pulling me towards it. Not sure what, but I think we get some juice here. Flacco magic? Fields sneaky? Nice GPP game.
Bucs vs Packers: I’d rather watch Falcons/Panthers TBH… Both teams with some playoff hopes here though, so expect a close game. Better kicker wins it.
Jets vs Dolphins: Re-match from Black Friday game when Dolphins rolled. Logic says divisional game is closer second time through, which only bodes well for using Dolphins players IMO off a loss.
Giants vs Saints: On November 1st (All Saints Day) 2015, Drew Brees and Eli Manning combined for 855 yards passing and 13 touchdowns in an EPIC 52-49 game. If you are like me in believing that certain teams no matter the players always play well, high scoring, low scoring, etc. based on location then you should buy into Giants Saints in NY being unders and in New Orleans being overs. This is the matchup when Aaron Brooks hit Joe Horn for a TD on Sunday Night Football and Horn whipped out the cell phone. This is the wild OT game when the Giants came back and beat the Saints two years ago riding Barkley late despite the Giants being heavy dogs. This is a rematch of 2009 when Jeremy Shockey got his revenge on his former team to vault the Saints to 5-0 in a blowout…
To be specific, here are the game results the last 7 times the NY Football Giants have traveled 3 hours down to New Orleans to take on the Saints. 45-7 Saints (Joe Horn game), 48-27 (Shockey game), 49-24 (Drew Brees dunked the ball game), 52-49 (Brees 7 TD game), 27-21 (Giants OT win). So yeah. between Aaron Brooks and Drew Brees the Saints had a string of 4 straight games where they scored 40+ points on the Giants at home. The over has covered every game this century in New Orleans.
I’m the guy who would write up Marquez Callaway against a top 3 defense with Jameis Winston throwing him the ball. Shit, I think I almost wrote up Coby Fleener once. And I damn well know I called every Josh Hill touchdown on a primetime game. Sure, I’m the Saints homer.
The data says the Giants are getting healthy and could exploit a struggling Saints rush defense….
Sorry. I just dont see it. Wake me when someone scores 10 points in this shit show… I’m not going here (… well, not on my main lineup)
Texans at Titans: Blah?
Chiefs at Patriots: Alright, Chiefs angry game? Maybe? Seems too obvious to me. I think I’ll wait to go back to Mahomes until the playoffs.
49ers at Cardinals: Kyler Murray is someone I find very tempting here. The Niners should not have any issues obviously moving it, but we’re silly not to consider some Zona.
Washington at Rams: This one is better than Cowboys/Bills IMO
Cowboys at Bills: F’n 45 degree weather….
THE AMBUSH PLAY
SAM HOWELL
It’s a tough sledding week for big time games and this one is likely going to be one of the more popular ones with the Rams side dominating the ownership. Howell has been good for DFS, despite a turnover each week, and coming off a BYE I trust the Washington offense to start well with some big plays through the air.
SECOND FAVORITE
MATTHEW STAFFORD
Only concern we can find on Stafford is that the Rams are part of the TNF game next week and those teams have shown bad prior Sunday performances in the past. Otherwise, you have a QB/passing offense playing well and a bad passing defense on the other side, while also being at a reasonable price for a passing only QB.
I would be shocked if Stafford gave us a 28 point performance and somehow Sam Howell didn’t have a strong game here too, so he is more of your safe, get me 17-20 points, and QB doesn’t matter option. But if you expect Stafford to have a big game then you need to have a Howell lineup as well.
Also Like …
- Kyler Murray
- Justin Fields
THE AMBUSH PLAY
RAHEEM MOSTERT
The Jets are a bad rush defense which is equal in part to their pass defense having success. With Tyreek banged up and Miami at home I would be shocked if we don’t have a big run game success for Miami. Throw in that Achane is also in and out every week lately and Mostert is the safer option to find the end zone and produce a viable score.
SECOND FAVORITES
RACHAAD WHITE
Ride him until he dies. The Bucs are stupid to let Baker throw it a ton today with how things flow against GB’s defense. White should be your automatic give me 20 points guy.
DERRICK HENRY
Quite the world to have Derrick Henry only $6900 against the Texans, the team he has feasted against and in December while he is looking stronger and stronger I would be shocked to not see him score a TD again today.
ANTONIO GIBSON
Usage is one thing here on carries, but his value in the passing game is the real benefit.
Also Like …
- Bijan Robinson … This one has Tyler Allgeier vulture coming all over it. He feels like the better plod it through the rain rusher, but I also want to remind everyone that Carolina is not a grass turf, so this won’t be a “muddy” game and Bijan with his cutting style could easily take one to the house on the Panthers slipping.
- Christian McCaffrey … Good at the football he is.
- Saquan Barkley … If…. If, I am wrong. Barkley has 30 fantasy points by the half.
- Kyren Williams … Nice pivot off Stafford
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
TERRY McLAURIN
It could easily be Dotson and it can easily be Samuel, I won’t argue with either. But when push comes to shove I have to lean on the best option in a road environment here & being on the Washington passing game for various reasons gives me the faith to bank on McLaurin finally getting that big game we remember from him in the past.
SECOND FAVORITES
ELIJAH MOORE
We need to not ignore what the Browns have done the last two weeks with Joe Flacco at the helm. The passing game has been revived knowing they can trust him to throw it a lot and so the volume for Cooper, Moore and Tillman is going up. Specifically Elijah Moore has seen 18 targets over the last two weeks and should be the preferred guy today against the Bears in rainy conditions. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tillman could find his way into a big catch too for $1100 cheaper, but Moore is my preferred value/volume guy. This is a sneaky good game IMO.
JAYDEN REED
The cooler temps of Lambeau field aside, it would be silly to not look here and consider something out of the Packers passing game with everyone being relatively affordable. Reed is the best option for a short yardage touchdown, which is more likely than the deep TD bomb to Watson.
CEEDEE LAMB
There’s room to pay up and going to the Cowboys/Bills game is probably worth it. I would only go here if you aren’t sure about which Rams option to roll with Stafford and might go Higbee there instead, but when paying up it’s Lamb or bust outside of the Puka/Kupp options. At the end of the day, Lamb will find a way to have his stats for sure. On the Rams passing options they’re equal to him but you gotta worry about Kyren Williams there too.
Also Like …
- Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp … Good luck. I’ll go Puka.
- Rashee Rice
- Brandon Aiyuk
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Marquise Brown
Value
- Jonathan Mingo
- AT Perry … If Olave sits.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
This is the best TE slate of the season, and you could easily justify to me paying for 2 TE to avoid the high $ WR, but most likely I would ride with a 3rd RB in the FLEX instead unless going very cheap at TE.
DALTON KINCAID
The one way to beat Dallas’ defense is through the TE and a big weapon like Kincaid should get the job done. Beware of that random Dawson Knox 4 yard TD vulture though.
SECOND FAVORITES
TREY McBRIDE
Arizona is going to cover this game.
TUCKER KRAFT MAC-O-RONI & CHEESE
Just $3000, pure TE value play here against a bad TE Defense.
CHIG OKONKWO
Mr Value. Every week. You want a 7 or a 9 for min price from TE? This is your punt guy. Every. Damn. Week.
DARREN WALLER
I am curious how much he plays, but his return against a team that’s been struggling with TE the second half of the season could result in a touchdown should that sort of thing actually occur in this shit show game.
Good luck my friends….
- DOLPHINS … Cover they might, the Jets are not winning tonight.
- BILLS … HEY, Here we gooo. Dak’s throwing one to someone on Buffalo for a touchdown.
- FALCONS … So, like. We’re all using chalky Falcons defense on the road? Really?
FINAL THOUGHTS
This is a RB heavy, TE heavy kind of slate. WR is good among the top options but then really dies off after that, so I wouldn’t push more than 3 WR this week.
AMBUSH CORE PLAYERS
Howell, Mostert, McLaurin, Kincaid
BETS
Falcons/Panthers under 35.5
Giants +6
Bears/Browns over 37.5
Chiefs -9.5
Cardinals +13.5
Commanders +7