Fittingly this Week 17 slate has all the makings of a true ‘Ambush’ feel to it. What I mean is that we have had a ton of weeks recently where the slate was undersized from what it will be today (13 full games) and we also have of course New Years Eve lingering and the end of the season as well.
But going beyond that you’re getting some shockingly interesting match-ups, many that the league thought would be good at this point when they did the schedule and some which just aren’t the same. Dolphins/Ravens in the 1PM window is the main event, Chiefs/Bengals still has some juice to it given the Chiefs play of late, the Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Rams, Bucs in need it spots as well.
It’s a fun slate.
But before we begin, we need to rule out some teams/games to make the process of picking our DFS plays easier.
Cross these ones off, I won’t be touching them
- Patriots at Bills
- Raiders at Colts
- Panthers at Jaguars … Im gonna put a disclaimer here. We have one specific play on the Jags side to look at.
- Bengals at Chiefs … Had to pick one of the “highlight” games to cross off the list.
Obviously on a full slate the temptation is going to be to list about 7-9 different Quarterback options and yeah I could list that many I would consider using. But I would rather give you accuracy and so here’s my limited options.
Ambush Pick
- Geno Smith … I had to lock in on a game and the Steelers/Seahawks one to me in the 4PM window has a lot of juice in it which is getting overlooked. Either QB is fine here if you want save some $ with Rudolph I wouldn’t hate it. However, we need a 3 TD game and I have way more confidence in Geno-DK-Lockett-JSN to do that.
Safe Plays
- Matt Stafford … No real weather issues in NY and the Rams are coming in hot and with a little extra rest against a short week Giants team who is definitely not looking to play spoiler. Every QB has been able to have a good day vs the Giants of late, and while Kyren Williams will draw a lot of consideration against them I would not overlook a 300 yard + 2 or 3 TD performance from Stafford.
- CJ Stroud … Best rookie all season long and now getting overlooked. Must correlate with his WR.
- Derek Carr … Simply based on the fact that Carr could wind up throwing it 35+ times today I would put some confidence in him for lineups. Obviously pairing him w/ Olave, Shaheed or Juwan Johnson makes a ton of sense based on volume there too — especially on full PPR DraftKings.
Sleeper / Value
- Jarrett Stidham … The most petty coach in the history of the NFL is getting slammed in the media for his proper benching of Wilson. You don’t think he’s gonna call the game of his life to get this trusted backup QB enough stats to pay off at a cheap price? Oh for sure he is. Broncos/Chargers sneaky over and Broncos roll.
Top Play
- Travis Etienne … Check my math for me here. The Jaguars are desperately in need of a win in a tight divisional race. The Jaguars are without Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars are facing arguably the worst rush defense in the league. The Jaguars are at home. The Clemson Tigers just won a bowl game in their stadium…. Math checks out folks. Can’t be a more solid data play all season long.
Core Picks
- Rachaad White … I have been on the downspin of the Saints defense/rush defense for a month or so now and it probably won’t improve too much given that they should be rotating extra attention to Mike Evans without his father (Marshon Lattimore) in attendance. Throw on top that the Bucs are entirely built around White getting 17-20 touches per game and around 100 all purpose yards and there remains very few guys who are better PT/$ plays each week than him.
- Javonte Williams … Not a BIG value, but still sub 6k on DraftKings is good enough value.
- Khalil Herbert … With Cole Kmet not trending very well and Herbert coming off a 20 touch game last week I would put enough faith in him to do damage against Atlanta’s middle of the road rush defense.
Also Consider:
Kyren Williams, D’Andre Swift, Gus Edwards, Zamir White
Top Play
- DK Metcalf … Love all 3 WR, but I see a big DK game here. If the game is chippy and competitive (hey, its the Steelers, we know itll be chippy) then you’ll get an invested and amped up DK smash spot.
Core Picks
- Tyreek Hill … His turn to steal the MVP debate.
- Chris Olave … I LOVE Rashid Shaheed on a big play down the sideline. Im not sure he gets the volume to warrant going all in there. Olave on the other hand WILL get the volume and it’s kinda hard to ignore him in that regard.
- Brandon Aiyuk … Figuring out the Niners is tricky unless you wanna just go all of them and pray for the best. I personally don’t see a high scoring shootout and think they get a D/ST score so the upside is limited on the skill guys at their prices.
- Nico Collins … Noah Brown for 2K less is very tempting and not a bad 2nd WR option, but I still love Nico’s big play upside and think he can win tournaments if this does turn into a shootout.
- Chris Godwin … Sure, no Lattimore to cover Evans, but lets not overlook that the Saints have never had a good answer for Godwin and the slot WR have been doing damage on Alontae Taylor, who is playing a little out of position of late. I see a Godwin TD on a 17 yard slant.
- DeAndre Hopkins … Titans should keep it close with Houston for a while and will do it with Hop and not Henry IMO. Houston pulls away late.
Value Picks
- DJ Chark … Ugly game, but there’s still a hole in the Jaguars secondary to exploit.
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Sleepers
- Diontae Johnson / George Pickens … Pick one of these stupid Steelers WR and pray you got the right one.
Top Picks
- Gerald Everett … One of the more consistent TE options of late and only $3500. Should be a highly owned TE and this gives us more salary relief to take sure things at WR and RB.
Core Picks
- Darren Waller … Dude just cannot stay on the field for a full game, but the Rams are bleeding points to TE of late
- Cole Kmet … Questionable, I really would love him in a fully healthy spot here.
Top Play
- Philadelphia Eagles … Kyler was sick all week and a new COD release was out or something like that. But seriously… Arizona was in Chicago for a late game last week and then went home for Christmas and now is back to Philly on a long week on NYE? They’re getting rolled right out of the park. Eagles might have 3 defensive scores.
Core Picks
- Houston Texans … Generating plenty of sacks and the Titans are allowing a lot consistently.
- San Francisco 49ers … I know they are the highest priced defense. But, c’mon. They’re gonna have 3+ sacks, 2+ turnovers and likely a defensive score
- Buffalo Bills
- Denver Broncos
AMBUSH CORE PLAYERS
Geno Smith
Travis Etienne
DK Metcalf
Eagles D/ST
BETS
Eagles -12
Texans -4
Chargers/Broncos OVER 36.5
Steelers/Seahawks OVER 40.5