Happy New Years to everyone. As I was re-reading one of my articles the other day, I noticed in the “related articles” section an old Tailgate article. Now, the obvious thing you are all probably gonna point out is, hey, why is an article from so long ago in the related section?
Well, some things on the site I just don’t put a ton of extra detail and thought into. I am not running this for 100,000 clicks a month like most of the other content sites out there. But it did kinda bring some pause to me because it was from Jan 1st, 2001 and most of the names in the article were guys we now debate about on Sunday’s in the NFL. Crazy. I’ve been doing this far too long. I’m honestly not sure how much longer I am going to keep doing it, but I have enjoyed the CFB Bowl season as always and maybe if we still have Bowl games when I am 70 I’ll be able to tell some cute nurse about my awesome DFS Picks on January 1st, 2024 and then she’ll probably call the security in and tell me its nap time, which will lead to them sticking me with some needle and turning on ole re-runs of Ian Book playing Quarterback that one game for the Saints.
Not really sure where I am going with this other than, lets enjoy the time we have and the sports we have while we have it. Happy to write for a bunch of good folks and lets Ambush it today.
Wisconsin vs LSU – ReliaQuest Bowl
Obviously no Daniels for LSU and no talent for Wisconsin. Hey-o… No word yet on Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers for the Tigers as possible opt-outs here. I do like Nussmeier to lead the Tigers offense, but don’t anticipate them just dropping 60 or anything. LSU as -9.5 feels too low, could be a trap.
Braelon Allen will be out for Wisconsin, opening up some RB value with Jackson Acker and Cade Yacamelli.
DFS Rank: #3
Liberty, Liberty, Liberty vs Oregon – Fiesta Bowl
This should be a great game. Oregon will be without WR Troy Franklin and could be without quite a few guys on the defensive side. Liberty is going to show out for this one.
DFS Rank: #2
Iowa vs Tennessee – Citrus Bowl
Most relevant news here is that Tennessee Freshman QB Nico Iamaleava on a Jet plane is gonna get his first start and he gets to do it against the slow and mighty defense of Iowa.
DFS Rank: #5
THE CFB PLAYOFF GAMES
Both of these are really tough to pick and I honestly can see all four teams not only winning today, but all four teams winning the National Championship. There isn’t a feel of one of them over the rest, but if there was one team I would back it would be Washington. Unfortunately, they’re also realistically the worst of all four teams — but is any one of the four dominant? No. There was no dominant team in college this season and thus we have the potential for a team without the depth and balance to shine out if their stars lead them and they have stars on the offensive side. I would argue, Washington has the best QB of the four teams remaining and they have the best WR of the four teams remaining. In a spot when there is honestly not a dominant defense and not a dominant team, I think that’s reason to back the Huskies as your pick.
Alabama vs Michigan – The Rose Bowl
I believe in the narrative that Michigan has not been as good since the sideline scandal came out. And I believe in the narrative that Alabama was given a second life vs Auburn and is now a dangerous team. Alabama is gonna find a way to make JJ McCarthy beat them and I’m not sure he can. I lean Saban in this one and I would want to say we should lean a lower scoring Rose Bowl game, but history says that’s not happening. You have to go back to 2012-2013 to find the last run of lower scoring Rose Bowl games.
DFS Rank: #4
Texas vs Washington – Sugar Bowl
Obviously this has all the attention, with a 63.5 total, two good offenses and a fast track in New Orleans. The Washington QB-WR-WR stack is going to be hard to ignore and some Huskies exposure in the passing game is a must. Texas can be more balanced and will stay in the game that way, but I see this being a Washington Ambush to start the first half with Texas roaring back in the second half to make it close, but Washington wins 40-34 in a classic finishing at 2AM EST, because why not start the game at 9PM on a Monday. Morons….
DFS Rank: #1
Michael Penix is going to be a CORE must for me today. With the higher $ stars being on this slate, we might be better served going with a WR in the Super-Flex spot instead of 2 QB though.
- Michael Penix Jr. – Washington – $8600
- Kaidon Salter – Liberty – $8200
- Nico Iamaleava – Tennessee – $6500
This is a MASSIVE gold mine of potential on under-priced guys. As you can assume, I am out on Blake Corum here, but if you back Michigan then he would be a great contrarian pick.
Tennessee has RB value if they get the volume. I’m skeptical.
The most obvious pick on the slate should be the Wisconsin rushing attack. Let’s not forget that the LSU Tigers are here because their defense was awful and allowed rushing touchdowns on a weekly basis. Wisconsin will score 2 on the ground today.
- Jackson Acker – Wisconsin – $4500 … A bold person could consider double stacking Wisconsin RB and hoping they just gash the LSU rush defense. It’s a bit bold IMO though.
- CJ Baxter – Texas – $5600
- Bucky Irving – Oregon – $6900
- Jase McClellan – Alabama – $5900
There just isn’t enough value upside to lock in on Jalen McMillan or JaLynn Polk for the Huskies, but yes, Jalen is definitely scoring here and Polk will do fine too. But I have to ride and die with the Penix-Odunze combo.
- Rome Odunze – Washington – $7400
- CJ Daniels – Liberty – $5600
- Xavier Worthy – Texas – $6400
- Tez Johnson – Oregon – $6300
- Cornelius Johnson – Michigan – $4200 … If I am right on Saban locking on the Michigan run game then Johnson is a must own today, because they wont let Roman Wilson completely go off.
VALUE Options
- Gary Bryant – Oregon – $3500
- Nico Ragaini – Iowa – $3700
DRAFTKINGS CORE OPTIONS
Michael Penix
Jackson Acker
Rome Odunze
Cornelius Johnson
** The above lineup ** is what I would consider to be able to then roll out a balanced build. But let me offer this alternative based on a comment I made above. If we go double Badgers (who doesn’t like 2 Badgers?) then things get very interesting. For example
Penix – Yacamelli – Acker – Odunze – McMillan – Worthy – Irving – Baxter
That’s how to stack up the Texas/Washington game.
A contrarian build today is obviously rolling out Alabama/Michigan stacks…. But I just don’t see it.
SLATE BREAKDOWN
A $6000 WR or RB in Super Flex is better balance lineup than going 2 QB today. Be balanced.
BETS
Liberty +18
Wisconsin +9
Tennessee -5.5
Alabama ML
Washington ML