The Dongers Club – May 17th

← The Dongers Club hub  ·  Daily MLB home run picks & DFS, since August 2020. Browse the archive or see how DCPA works.

It is a fantastic Friday and we’re getting very close to Memorial Day, which means that we might see the increase in scoring not just due to weather but also due to the not so far fetched conspiracy theory that Baseball rolls out non deadened balls to increase scoring during the summer.   WEATHER Padres at Braves:  There is a chance they could call this one well before it starts.  Typical Atlanta weather though, so good chance it plays without concern.   COLE RAGANS – DK: $9200, FD: $9600 One rough start last week in Anaheim when I was all over my boy is not going to deter me from using him back in the K.  While Oakland was a feel good story for a while, they’ve gone back to their bad ways with a really high 43% strikeout rate vs LHP over the last week and almost zero offensive production.  Ragans just got hit last time, that’s it, no other excuses.  He will get the whiffs back tonight.  7 innings, 7 strikeouts, 0 ER.  Oakland’s projected lineup today has the second lowest Arsenal score (meaning they don’t overall hit the mix that Ragans throws very well) as well. BRAYAN BELLO – DK: $8000, FD: $8800 On the other side of the spectrum, the Cardinals kinda woke up.  Boy, sure must be nice going to Anaheim, right?  Welcome back to hell – or St. Louis as the rest of us call it.  I do not believe the Cardinals will suddenly stay hot at home and one thing B.B. is great at is limiting damage.  Not a win the slate kinda play, but also wont lose you the slate either. CHRISTIAN SCOTT – DK: $8100, FD: $9100 I can’t believe I am doing this, but I am riding the young arm who has been great in his first two appearances for the Mets.  Command is where things could go south, but facing Miami that is a little negated since they’ll swing freely.  Scott has shown a good 3+ pitch mix with viable velocity and movement to be a sustained option.  If he avoids early walk issues, he’ll post another 6 IP, 6+ strikeout game. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Max Fried – Storms have me sliding off Fried.  But nobody is pitching better right now. Nestor Cortes – He is generally good at home, the White Sox are bad, he is probably chalky…...

Keep reading — and get the full war room.

The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:

  • Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
  • Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
  • Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
  • Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
  • Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
  • SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine

View Membership Options Already a member? Log in