A light Sunday slate (7 games on DraftKings) thanks to the Dodgers/Reds being moved up to 12:10 and the Blue Jays/Tigers playing at 11:30 this morning. FanDuel has included Ranger Suarez (Phillies) vs Cal Quantrill (Rockies) on their main slate.
Both sites should have nice afternoon tilt slates as well.
WEATHER
- Orioles at White Sox – This one looks worse than the one below. They’ll probably have to wait it out and both teams play afternoon games tomorrow.
- Braves at Pirates – This one is much clearer. I doubt they run into any issues but a slight chance of late inning delay.
Kudos to DraftKings (and FD) as I think their pricing today is spot on.
CHRIS SALE (DK: $10,500, FD: $11,000)
Sale or bust. He is back to his prime/elite ways pitching with Atlanta & Pittsburgh vs LHP has almost no power outside of Edward Olivares – who has a 42% strikeout rate against LH sliders, so yeah, advantage Sale here.
PABLO LOPEZ (DK: $9300, FD: $9600)
So much for the hope that Texas would wake up yesterday against Paddack. They’ll have an even tougher time against Lopez, who has the luxury of coming off a short 74 pitch outing vs the Nationals earlier this week and is primed to give Minnesota 7+ innings today. Lopez doesn’t walk anyone and Texas is not hitting singles right now, so expect him to have lots of 1-2-3 innings whenever he doesn’t have to see Seager or Adolis. I do think Adolis takes him deep once though.
ROBERT GASSER (DK: $6600)
Whatever the Red Sox are going to roll out today, it probably won’t be very good. Although no Tyler O’Neill might be a good thing the way that meathead is approaching his plate appearances now. Gasser finally got lit up in his last start, something every rookie SP must go through and I’m really only considering him today because we’re short on cheap options & the Red Sox lineup is fucking dog shit. Somehow there’s a reason to use Gasser or the Sox shitty value bats today, pick one.
Other Pitching Thoughts
- Would love Kyle Bradish vs Chicago but the weather is a big concern.
- Streaks end on Sundays. I really can see Tampa beating Kansas City today, but I think it’s more through the offense than Tampa winning a game 2-1. Taj Bradley is pitching fantastic & is a tempting option for $8000 as he could have a 7+ strikeout game, but there’s also gonna be 3 to 4 runs scored by KC off him, so I would avoid.
We’re gonna put games into buckets today and focus on the stacks based on games rather than teams specifically today. Two fairly contrarian games are above the others for me today but a big reason is because it should be a lower scoring day of afternoon Baseball today. I would prioritize more around building a 2-2-2-1-1 type build without going heavy on a single team.
Unless you are on FanDuel – in which case I would lock in on the Phillies.
- RAYS: Yandy Diaz & Brandon Lowe. Expect these two to be 1-2 in the Rays lineup, both are below 4k on DraftKings and both guys can get on base multiple times with some power upside.
- ROYALS: Bobby Witt Jr & Vinnie Pasquantino
- GIANTS: Matt Chapman & Jorge Soler
- METS: Pete Alonso & Francisco Lindor
CATCHER
- Cal Raleigh
- Patrick Bailey
- Salvador Perez – They could sit Salvy today and if they do, we lock in on Freddy Fermin
FIRST BASE
- Yandy Diaz
- Pete Alonso
- Vinnie Pasquantino
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Luis Garcia Jr.
- Jeff McNeil
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman
- Maikel Garcia
SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jorge Soler
- Adolis Garcia
- Max Kepler
- Julio Rodriguez
OUTFIELD – Value
- Adam Duvall
- Rob Refsnyder
- Nelson Velasquez
- Jorge Soler – OF – San Francisco Giants – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Julio Rodriguez – OF – Seattle – Chalky HR
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Tampa Bay – Contrarian HR
- Adam Duvall – OF – Atlanta Braves – Value HR
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Bobby Witt – SS – Royals
- Matt Chapman – 3B – Giants
- Cal Raleigh – C – Mariners
TOP BETS
Brewers/Red Sox NRFI
Giants/Mets OVER 7.5
Royals/Rays OVER 7.5
PROPS
Sean Manaea under 4.5 strikeouts
Chris Sale over 7.5 strikeouts