Most likely just this one article for the 4PM afternoon/MAIN slate today. I doubt I’ll be able to get a 7PM article/lineup in tonight, so look at the end of this article for some quick thoughts on those games.
For the early 1PM games, here’s what stands out to me
- I stand with my system plays and Yankees afternoon games on Saturdays after the Friday night games are unders. The Devers vs Cole HR is definitely in play though and this game may not even start/play due to storms and rain – or if it does, they should have a delay mid game.
- Hunter Brown vs Joe Ryan is elite pitching upside. Bregman has multi-hit game though.
- Angels/Cubs over.
WEATHER
Slight chance of late storms between Cardinals and Nationals, otherwise all clear.
You can really break the group of pitching down into three tiers today. The first tier is a group of four guys $8500 and above, each of whom are getting favorable xWOBA match-ups by hand split and three of them have favorable strikeout potential today. Those three are Garrett Crochet, Hunter Greene and Taj Bradley. Let’s just go ahead and get the obvious one out of the way. That would be a NO on Hunter Greene today my friends.
Next we evaluate if we’re trusting Taj Bradley to keep rolling along like he has been and I see no reason why he wont but I do like the SP on the other side — Andrew Heaney.
Garrett Crochet vs the Marlins in South Beach on a Saturday Afternoon. Is anyone actually going to this game? He might be 80% owned considering we saw Cole Ragans as almost 50% owned in Coors last night, granted this is a little more pricey on Crochet, but he’s a 30 spot waiting to drop.
The fourth guy I didn’t mention is MacKenzie Gore — my guy. Late storms & a Goldy homer bother me with Gore today.
The second tier of arms includes Yonny Chirinos (limited upside) and Cade Povich (no). Model likes both, I prefer a cheaper guy in tier 3.
Tier 3, as you can guess it, is Mr. Andrew Heaney. Sometimes good, Sometimes Shit. I expect the good from him today.
Overall SP Rankings
- Garrett Crochet
- Andrew Heaney
- Taj Bradley
TOP TEAMS
METS: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos
Once the Mets have knocked Falter out of the game and get a RHP out of the Pirates pen they are going to really explode. So don’t shy away from guys like Nimmo and Lindor here hitting bombs…
REDS: Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, Nick Martini
Matt Manning? Really? Who do I have to Hauck Tauh as a thank you for this gift on a fine Saturday afternoon. Elly is an automatic yes but SS is insanely deep on this slate, so for the Reds to be the winning stack it’ll be India/Martini and others to come through.
ORIOLES: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser
Oakland has too good of a bullpen for Baltimore to drop a 14 spot, but a 6 run first five innings against Luis Medina is definitely in play. It’s also Anthony Santaturday!
SECOND TIER TEAMS
GUARDIANS: Angel Martinez, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez
Cleveland was really close to rallying last night and Jose Ramirez PA were not very good late. He should correct that and is affordable when pairing with Angel Martinez
NATIONALS: James Wood, CJ Abrams, Jesse Winker
Lefties vs Lynner…
CATCHER
- Keibert Ruiz
- Adley Rutschman
- David Fry
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Jeimer Candelario
- Paul Goldlschmidt
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- Colt Keith
- Zack Gelof
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez
- Mark Vientos
- Jordan Westburg
SHORTSTOP
Everyone. Everyone homers.
- Francisco Lindor
- Elly De La Cruz
- Gunnar Henderson
- CJ Abrams
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jorge Soler
- JD Martinez
- Nick Martini
- James Wood
- Elly De La Cruz – SS – Reds – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- Jorge Soler – OF – Giants
- James Wood – OF – Nationals
- Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
- Jordan Westburg – 3B – Orioles
- Jonathan India – 2B – Reds
- BONUS … Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
TOP BETS
- Orioles/Athletics over 9
- Reds ML + Mets ML Parlay
- White Sox/Marlins under 2,083 fans in attendance