WEATHER
Royals at Cardinals: Already PPD
Rockies at Reds: There is a long history of when storms/rain happens in Cincinnati the ball carries a TON more and in that small ballpark it can lead to some really high scoring games. The risk here though is that they might PPD this one entirely, but the field does drain very well and I cannot remember the last time a game in Cincinnati which started or waited did not end up playing. They’ll play.
Twins at White Sox: Storms/Rain/Consistently Bad. This is also a pass for me, I like both pitchers but we can’t trust them in the weather.
ZAC GALLEN (DK: $8900, FD: $9700)
Obviously we look at Chris Sale getting bumped back and ask why is he not rolling over to today as our top pick? Because we didnt love him yesterday either and now we’ve got ourselves a near full slate of options. It does lessen ownership for those who want to play that game, but I really like Gallen and the price against a K% high team in Atlanta is very desirable. The Riley and road catcher in Chase Field Murphy homers came last night – which leads us to Gallen needing to not mess up to Matt Olson and Eddie Rosario — who remains out of the player pool on both sites for some reason — and he’ll finish with a 8+ strikeout performance. Gallen at home is good to go.
LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $9700, FD: $10200)
I promise you that Gilbert allows a solo HR to either Profar or Merrill today. That won’t bother us though as the Padres as a whole are not hitting RHH very well and over their last ~200 PA have almost a 40% strikeout rate. Gilbert’s not tired with his PC being below 100 each of the last three outings and the newly minted all-star should shine in PETCO tonight. His K Prop sits at just 4.5, which is an easy over as well.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- Yusei Kikuchi – I can’t. I just can’t. Sure, this is a west coast Asian pitcher. Whatever. The regression has been building back up on him and there’s gonna be a ton of HR seeking RHH at the top of the lineup waiting to Ambush him. Not worth ruining my night with a 10PM Notification of 2 HR allowed.
- Bailey Ober and Nick Lodolo – Both look good tonight but have some significant weather/rain risk issues. Lodolo probably finishes with 20 or -10.
TOP TEAMS
RED SOX: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Wilyer Abreu
Athletics starter Joey Estes has made 12 career starts and 8 of them have come collectively against only three teams. In fact, his last four starts were all against two teams and now he’s gotta venture outside into Fenway against a really well hitting Boston lineup. The reason Boston isn’t higher though is because the Estes-Langeliers combination is likely to limit Boston’s desire to run tonight. So they’ll need to do it with power and specifically from the lefties. I would push Dominic Smith up higher if he wasn’t hitting so low in the order too.
ATHLETICS: Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker
Trust the Data they say. Well, shit. The data says that Bello is a top pick tonight – but I say it’s fools gold. Amazing park shift which in 2024 doesn’t mean as much I know, but it has too for Oakland. Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers each have +.440 SLG% against RHP and Soderstrom/Shea have destroyed off-speed pitching this season.
ASTROS: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jake Meyers
Jose Altuve could break the slate by himself. The hurricane rolling through the area on Monday isn’t a big factor here as much as just liking enough hitting elsewhere. This is last nights version of the Twins but at home and more expensive.
SECOND TIER TEAMS
PIRATES vs BREWERS: Reynolds, McCutchen, Cruz, Tellez, Adames, Choroiou
Really like this game for low ownership upside possibly. We’ll see what the Pirates decide for their pitching (Josh Fleming Opening/Starting) but I cannot imagine it’s anything good. Top of the order for Pittsburgh is a great stack off Rea, who is either on or off completely.
MARINERS: Crawford, Polanco, France
Tough to trust this lineup and Julio is a little banged up, but nobody has had any trouble hitting Mazur.
OTHER HITTING THOUGHTS
- Rockies could provide a good amount of sneaky HR upside off Lodolo and obviously the Reds in the same spot are worthy of one offs.
CATCHER
- Shea Langeliers
- William Contreras
- Jonah Heim
FIRST BASE
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Dominic Smith
- Rowdy Tellez
- Christian Walker
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Jonathan India
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
This is a weird position after Devers tonight. He’s obviously looking “good” of late given his destruction of the Yankees in New York and should have plenty of RBI potential tonight.
- Rafael Devers
- Ke’Bryan Hayes
- Matt Chapman
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Willy Adames
- David Hamilton
- Elly De La Cruz
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Masataka Yoshida
- Bryan Reynolds / Andrew McCutchen: Play both or neither
- Brent Rooker
- Jazz Chisholm Jr
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Jackson Chourio
- Julio Rodriguez
- Jarren Duran / Wilyer Abreu
- Jake Meyers
- Jorge Soler
- Luis Matos – Value
- Shea Langeliers – C – Athletics – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Piratres
- Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics
- Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Jazz Chisholm Jr – OF – Marlins
- BONUS …. Jackson Merrill – OF – Padres
Very much a “CORE” stack night. OAK/BOS/PIT/MIL.
TOP BETS
- Oakland/Boston over 10
- Pittsburgh/Milwaukee over 8.5
- NY Mets -135 ML + Arizona ML Parlay
- Logan Gilbert over 4.5 strikeouts