TURBO SLATE THOUGHTS
There is a good four game TURBO slate today after the 2 game Double-Header/PPD make up slate in the early afternoon.
On the Turbo Slate you have Cubs/Orioles with mid game storms possible and insanely high humidity and heat. This is a terrible spot for both Imanaga and Burnes — I really believe Ian Happ or Cody Bellinger could hit 2 out tonight for the Cubs.
Guardians at Tigers could be delayed but should play, with Tanner Bibee being your SP1 on the short Turbo slate.
Mariners at Padres is a mid afternoon PETCO game, expect the ball to carry a little better here and the Seattle lefties to have a good game. I expect over 7.5 to be a bet I take.
Yankees at Rays .. who cares. Seriously, this is a low scoring game.
MAIN SLATE NOTES
G2 Royals at Cardinals is only on DraftKings
Neither site has included the Twins/White Sox second game because it’s not a day/night DH.
WEATHER
Dodgers at Phillies – This game is at 7:05, which tells me that it must be on ESPN or MLB Network as a Showcase game, but thank you for including it on the main slate. Big wind out to left field here and it’s obviously hotter than tits on a monkey.
There’s also wind OUT in many other spots, and when I say wind out, I mean over 10 mph. Here’s those spots — Fenway Park, Great American Ballpark & Citi Field.
We have some BAAAD pitching out there tonight my friends. Combined with the still tired bullpens and everyone having played last night (good for hitters), we could see some 13 and 14 spots put up on the scoreboards tonight. The one counter argument is MLB hitters getting their brains into vacation mode before the all-star break but I wouldn’t expect that until Friday.
LOGAN WEBB (DK: $9800, FD: $10,100)
This is a good game to consider both pitchers in. While Bassitt vs a lineup that likely has 5-6 lefties in it looks like he could get blown up, I counter you with him being a good pitcher in big parks. The safer route though is gonna be Webb. He started the year with some inconsistency but has really found his groove and there’s nobody I have more confidence in going 6+ innings with 100 pitches, 5-6 strikeouts and limited damage. On a slate without much ceiling upside on pitchers, we take the sure thing.
CHARLIE MORTON (DK: $8800, FD: $8700)
Wax-on, Wax-off, Wax-on, Wax-off. It’s the every other game narrative with Charlie Morton who wasn’t terrible in his last start mostly because ole reliable the breaking ball was feeling good for him at home. It should be thrown with confidence tonight as well — most of the Diamondbacks minus Marte/Walker have a low SLG% on breaking pitches and it’s Mortons bread and butter for whiffs on lefties.
BEST #3 OPTIONS
I don’t see either of these guys putting together a complete package game, but they’ll be alright if you have multiple lineups and want to diversify a little bit. I wouldn’t say I really have a “Sleeper” pick tonight.
- Chris Bassitt
- Framber Valdez
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- The data said Boston pitching last night and it says it again tonight. If you used Bello, it worked. If you used Oakland, it worked. I see the exact same thing tonight with Nick Pivetta. And you can guess which side I am going with (Oakland).
- We had a great outcome with Frankie Montas in Coors earlier this year — tonight back at home should be the exact opposite. Run away like a Vietnam Veteran leaving Greenbow County.
TOP TEAMS
DODGERS: Teoscar Hernandez, Miguel Vargas, Ohtani/Smith/Freeman
If last nights game was on the MAIN slate I would have a ton of egg on my face as I expected LA to destroy Wheeler. But as luck has it, we get the “Go opposite” theory after a beatdown + great hitting weather + TV game juiced balls + too confident Cristopher Sanchez giving up a grand slam to Miguel Vargas or Kike Hernandez. The core build here is 4-8 part of the lineup — you can take it to the bank that one of the bottom of the lineup if not two are gonna go yard and then it’s a spin the wheel on Ohtani/Smith/Freeman off Phillies bullpen. Miguel Vargas makes the most sense
SECOND TIER TEAMS
REDS: Rece Hinds, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer
I hate stacking the Reds but if they keep Rece Hinds in the lineup I would ride the kid. The ball just explodes off his bat and he has a great compact swing. There’s a little Teoscar Hernandez and a little Yasiel Puig in his game here. He’s super aggressive and eventually is going to get figured out and will have an 0-12 slump with 8 strikeouts, but right now the Rockies have no clue who he is and Kyle Freeland sure as hell isn’t going to find that hole. He’s gotta start Cincy.
ATHLETICS: (Shea Langeliers, JJ Bleday) vs RED SOX: (Tyler O’Neill, Rob Refsnyder, Connor Wong)
Won’t be as good as last night but how does Tyler O’Neill not send one over the Green Monster?
OTHER HITTING THOUGHTS
ROCKIES: Ryan McMahon, Nolan Jones, Elias Diaz: As I mentioned above I think Colorado gets the better of Montas this time. This is an individual/one off spot rather than a full stack though.
CATCHER
- Connor Wong
- Elias Diaz
- Will Smith
FIRST BASE
- Jon Singleton
- Freddie Freeman
- Spencer Steer
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- Bryson Stott
- Zack Gelof
THIRD BASE
Really good and deep position tonight — not as deep as OF, but very good. You can’t miss here.
- Ryan McMahon
- Mark Vientos
- Noelvi Marte
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Enrique Hernandez
- Oneil Cruz
- CJ Abrams
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Miguel Vargas
- Tyler O’Neill
- Teoscar Hernandez
- JJ Bleday
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Rece Hinds
- Jesse Winker
- Yordan Alvarez
- JD Martinez
- Nolan Jones
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Dodgers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bryson Stott – 2B – Phillies
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Miguel Vargas – OF – Dodgers
- Tyler O’Neill – OF – Red Sox
- Jon Singleton – 1B – Astros
- Elias Diaz – C – Rockies
- Oneil Cruz – SS – Pirates
- BONUS …. Rece HInds – OF – Reds
TOP BETS
- Dodgers ML
- Dodgers/Phillies OVER 9.5
- Rockies/Reds OVER 9
- Jays/Giants under 7