It’s another NFL season upon us and I’ll go short of a long rant about how writing about NFL DFS is just so dull and boring for me and jump straight to the end result of what my mind came to while driving down the road and thinking about my article for this season — or even if I really wanted to keep writing the same style article or focus on the Dashboard, Matchups and Tools I’ve tweaked with over time.
The final message is that I am a creature of habit, which is interesting because I really get distracted easily and go onto something completely different, but the bottom line is that I do best in all aspects of fantasy, gambling, DFS, etc. when I limit the noise and distractions and things are well structured for me. It’s why I get annoyed when there is unknown weather issues in Baseball or slates configured different each week/night. So, sure, FanDuel changing scoring and adding the SNF game is a little bit of a curve ball but honestly those aren’t new things, they’re just changes.
Thus my common approach to noise is just to ignore it, because more data is not necessarily good data. The same logic applies to when you see everyone else going a certain path but your own instincts take you down another. I found myself thinking about reminding how I build my lineups for football and that it NEVER starts with plugging in the Quarterback position first. So why does my article and every other DFS article out there have to start with Quarterback, then Running Back, etc… That’s not what the message should be every week.
So, we go back to how this article really started back in the beginning. We start with the Ambush plays. It could be one thing, it could be ten things, but it’s going to be specific to that week and it’s going to be my way. It’s going to be my approach and thought process and if there is a slate where I don’t give a damn who you play at Running Back, then I might not even say a damn thing about Running Back. You’re grown men or women (or so the Government says you are if you are old enough to play DFS), and I trust that you have some of your own thoughts but are reading for my opinions and you want my best 3, not 30 names listed in specific order for you to be even more confused with.
So, on with the show.
Questions, Questions, Questions … Week one always brings questions and unknowns. The league has changed quite a bit and so too is the changing of the guard as to who is elite (after Mahomes). One of those spots that everyone thinks will secure their ‘Elite’ level is the Bengals and specifically Burrow to J’Marr Chase, but that is the first of a few questions in week one. Here’s the 3 of the top questions this week:
1 – What to do with Chase and the Bengals offense?
2 – Will the Texans remain the Texans, will the Bears offense shine, will I ever tout the Falcons this season?
3 – Why does Running Back feel like a list of about 20 guys who are going to score, but none of them really stand out?
Those three things stand out to me this week. Alright, so no, I am not touting up the Falcons but it’s not my hatred for them as much as my hatred for that game overall.
Here are my top plays
AMBUSH #1: Home Cooking Running Backs
I always try to ensure that I know where I am going to go with Defense first, and I’ve got a a few options there which I’ll outline below but none are core plays. Then we quickly move on to RB and something I’ve always believed in is that you can trust the system when you have a home favored RB who is not the highest priced RB on the slate.
Such is the case with James Cook, coming off 1100+ yards in his second year but only 2 TD, I predict he matches that total in week one against Arizona. Everyone wants to use Josh Allen, which only adds on to our “leverage” in the lets be smart DFS nerd world.
First player to lock in? James Cook.
Ambush Play #2: Remembering Trevor and Tua
CJ Stroud was fantastic in his rookie season and no doubt should keep that going. Caleb Williams has wow moments as well, and Anthony Richardson … Well, no, he sucks. Get him the fuck off your radar and put him in the Kyle Pitts bucket please. But how quickly we forget the hype that surrounded Trevor Lawrence and Tua coming out of college and I LOVE these early games down in Miami where it’s always hot and the defense wears down VERY quickly. Jacksonville also boosted their OL quite a bit in the off-season, has a consistent coaching staff and probably has the easier to build around DFS stack as well. The Jaguars, my friends, are that big offense with a known QB that I am buying into this week.
Second spot to target? QB & WR in the Jaguars/Dolphins game
AMBUSH #3: Denver is what you think Chicago is
I’m all aboard the Broncos. Sure, I’m a Saints homer, and a noted Sean Payton believer. I’m also banking heavily on their offensive line improving, the clear path that Javonte Williams has as their RZ back and trust Bo Nix even up in Seattle to put up numbers that everyone thinks Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson can do.
Seattle does not have a terrible defense, but they also should not be an elite defense. Denver can and will move the ball behind Nix, Williams and Sutton. Denver scores in the 20’s, Nix shines, and anyone using Seattle defense pays a hefty price.
Don’t really love anyone at QB and once again, QB in NFL DFS usually doesn’t matter. The range of outcomes is so narrow.
CORE PLAY
Trevor Lawrence (DK: $6200, FD: $7400)
SECONDARY LINEUP PLAYS
Kyler Murray (DK: $6400, FD: $7900)
Bo Nix (DK: $5000, FD: $6600)
CORE PLAYS
CORE PLAYSJames Cook (DK: $6900, FD: $7600) … Gimme some home RB cooking here.
Jonathan Taylor (DK: $7800, FD: $8600) … Ditto JT
SECONDARY PLAYS
Javonte Williams (DK: $5500, FD: $6100)
Rachaad White (DK: $6300, FD: $7700)
DeVon Achane (DK: $6800, FD: $7200)
CORE PLAYS
Christian Kirk (DK: $5500, FD: $6100) … Would not be opposed to 2+ WR with T-Law in a full Jaguars stack, and Brian Thomas is the easy 2nd WR to look at unless you ride Evan Engram and his TE ownership
Malik Nabers (DK: $5900, FD: $6300) … Gotta feed him the ball a ton, otherwise what the hell are the Giants going to do on offense? We buy low on the Giants #1 weapon.
SECONDARY PLAYS
Mike Evans (DK: $7300, FD: $7900)
Courtland Sutton (DK: $5600, FD: $5500)
Jaxson Smith-Njigba (DK: $4900, FD: $5200)
Jakobi Meyers (DK: $5000, FD: $5100)
BEST PAY UP STUDS
Justin Jefferson (DK: $8400, FD: $9000)
Tyreek Hill (DK: $8700, FD: $9600)
CHALK VALUE
Andrei Iosivas (DK: $3000) … I almost never recommend these donkey value WR’s on FanDuel because they’re still 1/2 PPR there. But yes, he could be used on FanDuel too if you really wanted to push it. DK mostly.
It’s 2024. Taysom Hill is STILL not only in the NFL but he is going to be used more than ever before. Thank you, I was right in 2017.
CORE PLAY
Taysom Hill (DK: $4300, FD: $5500)
SECONDARY PLAYS
Evan Engram (DK: $5500, FD: $6200) … Prefer Engram on FanDuel
Greg Dulcich (DK: $3000)
CORE PLAY
Chicago Bears (DK: $3400, FD: $4000)
SECONDARY PLAYS
Buffalo Bills (DK: $3000, FD: $4600)
BETTING CARD
Bears -4.5
Broncos +6
Giants ML
Panthers/Saints OVER 40.5
DRAFTKINGS CORE
RB – James Cook (BUF)
WR – Christian Kirk (JAC)
TE – Taysom Hill (NO)
DEF – Chicago Bears
FANDUEL CORE
RB – James Cook (BUF)
WR – Christian Kirk (JAC)
WR – Malik Nabers (NYG)