WEATHER IMPACTS
Cardinals/Packers and Colts/Titans: Some wind chances here. Not MAJOR though.
TOP GAMES OF THE WEEK
- LIONS at COWBOYS … Definitely the game of the week but likely has a 27-23 finish. Detroit’s gonna have a ton of long drives, can they finish them in the red zone and if so, is it Montgomery or Gibbs. Detroits just better up front and I like them for that reason — but they aren’t slowing down an angry Lamb.
- COMMANDERS at RAVENS … Hard not to see this being an elite offensive game between the two squads.
BEST CONTRARIAN GAME
- BUCS at SAINTS
It’s Father’s Day in New Orleans as Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore are going to renew their bonding, which always seems to even be at a higher level in the ‘Dome. Beyond that, however, you have a pretty straight usage path on both sides of the ball here. Tampa is going to be all Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin and yeah, some Evans. New Orleans is probably going to be a lot of Olave and I am on the Rattler for 4k hype train for various reasons (kinda noted below). I like points in this game.
SPENCER RATTLER (DK: $4000, FD: $6000) … This is not just an optimistic homer play and it’s not just a “take the cheap QB when QB doesn’t matter” play. There’s some logic here in Rattler having to use his legs behind a rough offensive line and it’s not that he will have designed runs but his pocket awareness is something that Carr does not have and he will break free and be able to extend plays with his legs or they’re gonna call a good amount of bootlegs/move the pocket type plays to make it an easier landing for him. So at 4k, you get a guy who is going to air it out without fear at times and then rush for ~30 yards simply based on getting him safe options. Combine it all and the definite higher usage for Olave and it’s just too easy for him to get a good score at this price. Plus there’s studs to pay up for at WR.
DAK PRESCOTT (DK: $6700, FD: $8000) … One reason I don’t love Dak like you would think here is I see Detroit dominating the time of possession as mentioned above. But if you just air it out like Dak should to Lamb then that’s kinda moot.
ALSO LIKE
Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield
BIJAN ROBINSON (DK: $6600, FD: $8500) … It’s a little amusing to watch annually everyone jump off the Falcons skill player bandwagons simply because they aren’t breaking all the records in the world. Robinson and Atlanta are going up against a terrible rush defense and off a little extra rest here. In the same price range, Tony Pollard for the Titans is probably a little heavier owned and not a terrible play – but he too has someone to contend with in Spears (who is good), where as Bijan’s only fear is rushing out at the 2 yard line and having bad Allgeier luck. I’ll take my chances with Bijan.
JAHMYR GIBBS (DK: $7000, FD: $7800) … Love both him and D-Montgomery. Cant imagine one gets all the work, so hard to expect the ceiling game, but if you go here, might as well go Gibbs. UPDATE: Moving Gibbs up my rankings as I commit more to the Lions/Cowboys game.
JOSH JACOBS (DK: $6700, FD: $7600) … Arizona is still a weak spot defensively against backs & Jacobs will have his usual 20+ touches. Fully expect a nice floor game from Jacobs.
BUCKY IRVING (DK: $5400, FD: $5700) … Irving is the better RB in Tampa. The Saints rush defense is the worse rush defense right now in this game. Yet because of Rattler starting everyone wants Kamara. Wrong. Go to the Tampa side.
ALSO LIKE
- JK DOBBINS (DK: $6200, FD: $6700) … Chargers off a BYE week get a little healthier here and Denver is going into a TNF game next week. Big let down spot for Denver.
- TYJAE SPEARS (DK: $5100, FD: $5700)
CEE DEE LAMB (DK: $8600, FD: $9300) … Lamb was visibly upset at times with Dak last week (who isnt in Dallas?). He is going to crush Detroit
CHRIS OLAVE (DK: $6600, FD: $7100) … Huge boost for Olave with Rattler starting. He should pepper him quite a bit and I see the Saints finding designed scheme plays to get Olave the ball over the middle of the field more.
TERRY McLAURIN (DK: $6400, FD: $6800)
CHRIS GODWIN (DK: $6900, FD: $7500)
ALSO LIKE
JAMESON WILLIAMS (DK: $5800, FD: $6300)
DIONTAE JOHNSON (DK: $6100, FD: $5900)
AMARI COOPER (DK: $6000, FD: $6200)
VALUE OPTIONS
JAHAN DOTSON (DK: $4800, FD: $5600)
RASHOD BATEMAN (DK: $4100, FD: $5500)
BROCK BOWERS (DK: $6000, FD: $6700) … TE is absolutely terrible this week and it’s kinda logical because last week it felt like it was an everyone is gonna produce here type week, which wasn’t the frist time that happened for TE in this young season. So, who is the best TE on the slate overall as a player? It’s Bowers. And what’s his circumstances this week? Well, check down Aiden O’Connell starting at QB against a defense which has been good vs WR, decent vs the run. Uh, yeah. Just pay up at TE for the best TE ON the board and give yourself all the gap between everyone else. He might be the only TE who scores a touchdown.
OTHER OPTIONS
- ZACH ERTZ (DK: $3700, FD: $5000)
- Anyone else you want.
- CHARGERS
- TITANS
- BROWNS
DFS CORE
Spencer Rattler
CeeDee Lamb
Chris Olave
Brock Bowers
BETTING CARD
New England +6.5
Bucs/Saints over 44.5
Washington +6.5
LA Chargers -2.5
Falcons/Panthers over 44.5
Lions -2.5