Welcome to Week 12 and our theme today is definitely not just blindly clicking what the masses are going to click. Be bold and be contrarian. I think there’s some bad auto chalk on the pay up spots.
TEXAS at ARKANSAS
Great spot for the Texas passing attack. Sneaky spot for Arkansas to flirt with an upset for the 1st Half.
- TEXAS: Quinn Ewers, Isaiah Bond, Gunnar Helm/DeAndre Moore
- ARKANSAS: Taylen Green, JaQuinden Jackson, Andrew Armstrong
BAYLOR at WEST VIRGINIA
Baylor is coming off a narrow home win vs TCU and then a BYE last week. They only play up tempo and after sliding off my guy Garrett Greene, I am 100% back on the train for him today as he slides into the starters role once again.
This is a game with the highest total on the slate but low expected ownership on the Baylor side. I like it, I don’t love it. But take me home, Country Roads….
- Baylor: Sawyer Robertson
- WVU: Garrett Greene, Jahiem White, Hudson Clement, Traylon Ray
GAME THOUGHTS
- TRAP GAME — Louisville at Stanford: The Cardinals versus the Cardinal. Almost as exciting as Tyson vs Paul… Here’s the game theory play on this one though. Louisville is playing their third out of four on the road and obviously going far west in this one. Yes, they had a BYE last week but they’ve also got two big games vs Pitt and Kentucky coming up after this. I believe they’re gonna sleep walk through this one and even though statistically a Louisville stack looks smart, it will flop.
- SLEEPER GAME — Nebraska at USC: You are what you are come November 16th. USC is still gonna try to play fast and Nebraska is gonna play stupid. After all the early season hype on Dylan Raiola, life has really come at him fast, but lets not underestimate the benefit of playing in a USC game and in great weather finally. For $5500 you can do much worse and play him naked or with any of his very cheap WR (Jacory Barney and Isaiah Neyor leading the way). Jayden Maiava takes over at QB for USC, and he will run based off what we know about him from UNLV last year.
Quarterback is DEEP but not dominant. We can almost apply the NFL Quarterback rule today of ‘it doesnt matter’, but it also is a prime spot to build around 2 QB today.
The highest owned QB will be Riley Leonard (I’ll pass), Kevin Jennings and Fernando Mendoza. Interestingly we have two QB going up against Syracuse/Boston College who are both traveling west after their physical game last week. Expect both to get blown out and thus I don’t wanna push too hard on those QB’s.
- Garrett Greene – WVU – $7400 … No waffling here. Is it risky to immediately assume he recaptures his old magic? Sure. If you dont like it, then move on to one of the 27 other options here. I’m all on the Mountaineers.
- Quinn Ewers – Texas – $8700 … Arkansas will keep it close. Ewers has to throw 3+ TD today.
CONTRARIAN QB GAME STACK
- Jayden Maiava – USC – $7500 & Dylan Raiola – Nebraska – $5500 … Nobody will have either QB as this game gets overlooked too much. For the correlation wins crowd, you can’t beat these two correlated together and what it does for salary construction to get my top RB and top WR as well.
CORE PLAY
- Brashard Smith – SMU – $8800 … So it’s Jennings or Smith without question today to start lineups and I’d prefer to have the home RB instead of the home QB. Smith has no reason not to get 15+ carries even if it turns into a blowout. He had 23 against Pitt last week as a -19 favorite in a 23 point win and he scores almost every home game. On a slate with some value at RB but nothing great in the mid-range, slide up to the top and take the #1 pick today.
RB2 CONSIDERATIONS
- Nicholas Singleton – Penn State – $6600 … Home/Road, doesn’t matter. Purdue blows. Get in and get out spot for Penn State using their RB’s. NOTE: Kaytron Allen’s value as RB2 is equally good here.
- Makhi Hughes – Tulane – $7600 … In terms of talent he’s among the best. Not in love with the road spot at Navy who can control the clock very well. Certainly not for 50% ownership — but Navy when they are on defense is not stopping the run very well (4.32 YPC).
- Jahiem White – West Virginia – $4700 … The pivot off Greene, although he is so cheap that you could roll both.
CORE PLAYS
While I am hesitant to say RB is deep, I am not hesitant to say I love a few of these WR today.
- Kyren Lacy – LSU – $8000 … Could not love LSU more today. Nuss is gonna bounce back at QB, but is way too expensive when you factor in that Lacy probably has 3 touchdowns himself.
- Elic Ayomanor – Stanford – $5200 … My lineup will have Ayomanor but everyone else with him will have the Louisville side flopping. This is how we win. Elite play.
SECOND TIER OPTIONS
- Isaiah Bond – Texas – $5000 … A little roulette picking which Longhorn WR, but between Bond and Helm they produce every single week it seems with Bond having the higher ceiling. Fine with Gunnar Helm for only $3100 too.
- Isaiah Neyor – Nebraska – $4600
- Andrew Amrstrong – Arkansas – $6900
- Makai Lemon – USC – $5000 … Doesn’t cost too much to get a little exposure in the passing game here as well.
POSITION DEPTH RANKED (For S-FLEX/FLEX Purposes)
QB, WR, RB
DRAFTKINGS CORE
QB – Garrett Greene
RB – Brashard Smith
WR – Kyren Lacy
WR – Elic Ayomanor
BETS
- West Virginia ML
- Nebraska/USC over 51
- Stanford +20.5
- LSU -4