I was thinking of doing something drastic and taking off Sunday’s which once were my favorite day and of late have become a drag. Then I saw deGrom, Ray and Tomosuki pitching today and here we are my friends. We have site synchronicity on this fine Sunday, so enjoy that as well.
I’ve seen a decent amount of chatter already about juiced baseballs being back and it’s not just from the gambling/DFS crowd. This shouldn’t be a shock. Of course MLB would want scoring and attention to their sport to be high at the start of the season as this is when everyone is going to try and pay attention and will be interested in attending games early before going along with their lives. Expect it to remain random and then around the 5th of April we’ll start to get into that 1-2 week stretch of smashing unders. I’ll grow concerned when Scooter Gennett hits 4 HR in a game.
WEATHER
- Angels at White Sox: Slight chance of storms in the afternoon.
- Twins at Cardinals: Chance of delay here.
Despite deGrom being back there’s no temptation for me to use him. I think the price on him is fair but the length concerns are real and while Boston hasn’t really gotten going yet, they’re still dangerous enough to not really feel like that’s a must own spot.
We have Aaron Nola day game and on the road once again, something that usually has some risk associated with it. Warm weather in DC with the wind blowing out. If it was May, I would trust Nola’s upside more, but Washington’s gonna be decent vs RHP and not LHP, so we avoid it here.
Today is a slate when I just go with guys who are basically what we would normally consider ‘Sunday Sleepers’
TAJ BRADLEY (DK: $8200, FD: $9600)
Hard to evaluate Del Boca Vista Park so far as these two offense are just battling it out for who can suck the most through opening weekend. Gotta think Bradley has as good of a chance of anyone at having a big strikeout day.
MICHAEL WACHA (DK: $7800, FD: $8200)
Sounds like Jose Ramirez could sit out today if Cleveland plays it safe. A big help obviously if so and there’s reason to think Bibee is chalky making his debut today after a sickness scratch on Opening Day, so pivoting to the home SP in what should be a low scoring game at low ownership is enough justification for me.
OTHER PITCHING QUICK THOUGHTS
- Stroman and Civale will pitch decent! Cooler temps in Yankee Stadium and they gotta balance out the juiced balls versus non juiced balls.
- So too will Mitchell Parker, but he’s not MacKenzie Gore. Don’t expect that here.
- Max Meyer is very tempting for the Marlins as he could be a sleeper to finally have a full breakout season – but the way the Pirates are running (and the Marlins arent stopping them) brings in a high probability that he’s in too many stressful situations today and has a blow up inning.
REDS
McLain, Espinal, Steer
Early Ambush on Robbie Ray, too early in the day for him to do well. Nice value with Santiago Espinal batting 2nd between McLain ad Elly, he could be the key to this stack today with Steer or Candelario providing some power.
ORIOLES / JAYS
Cowser, Mullins, Westburg — Vlad, Bichette
Lefties once again this year against Bassit – no reason to change.
Vlad Jr homers off Sugano
RANGERS
Semien, Pederson, Garcia, Seager
Adolis is healthy and on fire to start the season. He was good at the end of Spring as well, so if the Rangers do not score today then the Mets should be pointing at deGrom and saying “See, it’s not us, it was you!”. Poor guy better get some run support now.
CATCHER
Catchers continue to rake, so if you can think of a catcher who hasn’t hit a HR yet but has good pedigree — like maybe a World Series MVP who is likely going to the HOF — then I would check there for a HR today (if he starts of course).
- Salvador Perez
- Kyle Higashioka
- Adley Rutschman
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Jake Burger
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Ryan O’Hearn
SECOND BASE
- Marcus Semien
- Brandon Lowe
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm
- Jordan Westburg
- Jeimer Candelario
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Willy Adames
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Colton Cowser
- James Wood
- Spencer Steer
- Joc Pederson
OUTFIELD – Tier 2 / Value
- Santiago Espinal
- Cedric Mullins
- Andrew Benintendi
- Willy Adames – SS – Milwaukee Brewers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- Spencer Steer – OF – Reds
- Joc Pederson – OF – Rangers
- James Wood – OF – Nationals
- Vlad Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Kyle Higashioka – C – Rangers
- Jazz Chisholm Jr – 2B – Yankees
- BONUS ……………… Salvy – C – Royals
TOP BETS
Giants/Reds OVER 8
Brewers/Yankees UNDER 8.5
Cincinnati ML