The Dongers Club – April 15th

← The Dongers Club hub  ·  Daily MLB home run picks & DFS, since August 2020. Browse the archive or see how DCPA works.

I have to admit, part of me is actually quite impressed with the Tanner Houck stat line last night.  I mean, any old bad pitching outing can result in a -3 or a 2 or something really bad.  But going -21?  Impressive young man… WEATHER Mid-April type windy and comfortable but chilly with NO RAIN which is nice. Roof in Texas should be open and this is by far the best weather spot. UPDATE:  Very Windy.  Baltimore, New York likely see the biggest wind boosts.  Slight downgrade on Charlie Morton for me tonight (oh, hey, you just started reading.  Yeah, we like Morton)   KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $8500, FD: $9100) Every NFL season there is that one team who comes out and starts 3-0 or 2-0 and you see all this hype around how impressive their early games are which causes people to think that they could not only make the playoffs but be some serious contender despite having a Quarterback like, I dunno, Derek Carr, under center.  Well, my friends, we have the Toronto Blue Jays sitting at a game above .500 and people think this team wont finish last in the AL East still?  Here’s how it plays out.  They do good in April and early May and then they die off.  This includes Mr. Kevin Gausman who is coming off a dominant start vs Boston — a team swinging too much — and now gets another team who at times swings way too much in the Atlanta Braves.  I see Gausman continuing a hot start and then having some bad shoulder injury mid May.  Ride him now. JEFFREY SPRINGS (DK: $8200, FD: $9400) The Athletics pitchers have to be thrilled to get out of Sacramento.  Going into the cold and not too windy South Side is a bad pivot for the hitters, but nice for their arms.  A concern for Springs is that he has a high walk rate to RHH and the White Sox likely have nothing but RHH to roll out today, that limits his “30” point potential like he had in his first start — but 6 innings, limited damage and a high whiff rate is possible here too. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Charlie Morton – If you want cheap we are on the Good side of Chuck tonight.  Not a terrible play, but that wind is possibly a big risk. Tylor Megill is my #3…...

Keep reading — and get the full war room.

The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:

  • Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
  • Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
  • Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
  • Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
  • Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
  • SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine

View Membership Options Already a member? Log in