A wonderful Friday, our second of five in May and I just want to remind everyone what I said last Friday about the “juiced” ball weekends in May. It’s coming… Today we have no afternoon game in Wrigley though, which is very sad but a great main slate to work with. WEATHER Brewers at Rays: We are into the Tampa Storms part of the season — now we’ll find out why they used to play in a COSTCO Warehouse. This is a hitters only game though and it should find a way to finish. Cubs at Mets: I think they play through this, but light rain chances. Giants at Twins: Warm Dodgers at D’Backs: Roof Open KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $9000, FD: $8600) Not many better parks for Gausman to go into than the tough hitting Seattle where nobody can see the ball unless they’re a catcher it seems. The Mariners offense at home is bottom 10 in the league, and really bottom 5 if you stop and think long about it. With a bad start in late April in the mirror now for Gausman, we should be confident he will have his mind and his pitch arsenal on point tonight. HUNTER DOBBINS (DK: $7700, FD: $7600) Well, the Royals did what they needed to do against Baltimore and Chicago. Now they get a pitcher they don’t know, which never is a good spot for them. Expect this to be a 7-3 type Red Sox win tonight, although Lorenzen should pitch better for about 2 innings before Boston explodes the second time through. For Dobbins, he’s a little heavy on the fastball which could be a problem if the command is off but really don’t think the Royals sudden “offensive” surge will pay off tonight. Ride the theory they cannot advance scout well. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS HUNTER BROWN … Brown’s price has been pushed all the way up to 11k and there is no reason to think he won’t do fine tonight back at home. If you are going the Padres in Coors route though then you’ll find it tough to jam him in because you really can’t go Padres without Tatis/Machado/Merrill. But there is some okay value elsewhere and so Brown is definitely not a bad pick (#ToutLife) Gut says Clay Holmes throws a masterpiece for the Mets…. But he has limited strikeout upside vs the good Cubs, so…...
Keep reading — and get the full war room.
The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:
- Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
- Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
- Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
- Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
- Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
- SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine
