We start off with split slates as FanDuel includes a couple 6PM games and DraftKings wants you locking in at 7PM tonight. This means that Boston at Detroit and St. Louis at Philadelphia are not on the DK Main slate.
WEATHER
Free and clear my friends.
There are three immediate pitchers who stand out today and when I opened up the model rankings they were of course listed 1-2-3. The Tres Amigo’s today are Skenes, Mahle and King. Three of the better strikeout pitchers in the game and in the case of Mahle and King they draw less than dangerous opponents. None of these arms are coming off dominant starts, Mahle is the one who worries me the most, but at the end of the day I am focused on trying to side with two guys that should get us into the 20’s tonight.
- MICHAEL KING (DK: $9500, FD: $10.4k) … I cannot find anything bad to say, and I think this could be one of the safer under bets on the night. Michael King at home is as good as they come.
- PAUL SKENES (DK: $9700, FD: $10,600) … Someone should be happy that the manager is gone. Skenes wasn’t exactly holding back when he said “hey, someone had to be held accountable” and pitching in Citi Field is a spot that could rattle some pitchers, but not this guy. The Mets are hopefully enough to keep his ownership down, plus he hasn’t been ELITE in three of his last four, but when he is on, you know you are getting a safe outing. Expect one of those upper tier spots tonight.
LONGSHOT / SLEEPER PICK
It’s not Yusei Kikuchi, although maybe with a few drinks I could be talked into it. It’s also not Colin “Diah” Rea at home vs the Marlins — but the Marlins either scoring 10 runs or getting no hit in Wrigley this week does seem to feel rigiht.
- Justin Verlander
CUBS
Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Pete Crow Armstrong
They say that Ian Happ will be back in tonight and leading off for $4400 is a steal. Quantrill vs the Cubs lineup this year feels like an easy button play. He’s coming off a really good start vs the Dodgers, so history is NOT repeating itself here. Cubs score early and often and have lots of men on base for sure. It’s not Wrigley homer weather, but who cares with this lineup.
UPDATE: Happ not back yet. PCA Leading off though.
RANGERS
A two game winning streak, some offense and now the Rockies come to town??? Times are good for the Rangers finally.
UPDATE: No Seager and Josh Smith scratched. I love that it’s Carter/Langford 1-2 but for tonight it’s not the best lineup they could have vs Dollander. Probably slide off stacking the Rangers
OTHER NOTES …
- Nationals: Well, it was a fun run for a while for us Nationals believers but they just got dominated at home by Cleveland and St. Louis. Going on the road is a good thing possibly for them here as they need to find a way to get right. Unfortunately Grant Holmes usually gets hammered by RH and not LH, which is the core of the Nationals. Maybe Crews or Josh Bell are worth taking shots on tonight here. James Wood is in a bad slump, do with that what you will.
- Yankees: Lets see how well Judge does with this batters eye. (Narrator – He’ll be fine)
The fact that I am wanting to spend up on both pitchers has me boosting up some more mid or lower tier players today
CATCHER
- Austin Wells
- Joey Bart
- Keibert Ruiz
FIRST BASE
- Michael Busch
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Joc Pederson
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Nico Hoerner
THIRD BASE
Play Arenado on FanDuel
- Ryan McMahon
- Maikel Garcia
- Connor Norby
SHORTSTOP
UPDATE: With no Seager & Smith out, it’s pay up for Witt and hope he has a multi-HR game or use this as your punt/save $ spot. I’d lean on just punting it, although J.P Crawford is worth using as a one off..
Corey Seager- Bobby Witt Jr
Josh H Smith- ADD: J.P. Crawford
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
Ian Happ- Pete Crow Armstrong
- Wyatt Langford
- Dylan Crews
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Kyle Stowers
- Evan Carter
- Zach Dezenzo
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Atlanta Braves – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B – Royals
- Austin Wells – C – Yankees
- Zach Dezenzo – OF – Astros
- Ian Happ – OF – Cubs
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- Dylan Crews – OF – Nationals
- BONUS … Michael Busch – 1B – Cubs
TOP BETS
Angels/Padres UNDER 7
Diamondbacks/Giants UNDER 8
Rockies/Rangers OVER 8.5