Results matter and despite any commentary on Baseballs and inconsistency and Friday night Summer overs, I will just say it like it is. My article yesterday wound up being complete dog shit.
The great news is that we have site synchronicity today. Two games in the 1PM early window with New York having their traditional Saturday afternoon game along with the Twins vs Tigers.
Then a big 10 game Main slate at 4PM, wrapped up by the small 3 game night cap with the spots in Anaheim, Houston and Atlanta.
WEATHER
Possible storms in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, Cincinnati but nothing that is going to put a game at PPD risk or even significant concern for pitching … We’ll get to pitching in a moment.
It’s humid in a ton of places, but I have lost any hope trying to pinpoint how the Baseballs do act with Humidity in certain stadiums because it’s clear that some days they pull the balls out at 7am from the humidor and other days they’re rushing it immediately (i.e. the 3rd-8th innings when they’re out of baseballs and need a new batch).
That said, we are in the business of being predictive and making forward thinking assumptions and decisions which leads me to saying that if you like betting HR props and you like betting YRFI’s then today should be good for you.
So, pitching. You could have a guy who walks the bases loaded in the first inning and racks up almost 40 pitches as nearly 45% chalk still manage to finish with a very good score. You could have another guy drop a 45 and he didn’t even have the no-hitter going into the 9th inning. Or you could have pitchers in the games where there are 30 runs. Hey, good luck!
I am less interested in which stadiums are good for pitchers or which offenses are cold today. I am entirely focused on the pitcher side of the equation for my choices right now — almost ignoring the opponent — which yes, can be dangerous but that is how I would I see the process going today & likely through until the All-Star Break.
OUR BEST CHOICES
KUMAR ROCKER (DK: $6500, FD: $7700)
I dont like Ray, I don’t trust Bassitt, I dont have the guts to go Lugo. So the #1 spot is going to someone who I atleast know won’t cost me too much & can rack up strikeouts. One could even look at a gamestack here of pitchers with Bryan Woo and trust that maybe the graveyard in Texas once again plays as one of the worst ballparks for ball carry this season. If you pay up, it’s Woo, but if you want to do that, play both guys.
QUINN PRIESTER (DK: $7900, FD: $8200)
Alright, so I do consider the opponents today somewhat. The Rockies are a bad offense & while nothing about Priester really warrants him as someone to dominate, he is at home and his sinker has been doing well in his recent home starts.
SANDY ALCANTARA (DK: $7100, FD: $7800)
Sandy’s ERA has dropped significantly over the last month from that horrific start he had. I guess when it’s time to look good for your future employers out there on the job market you need to clean up that LinkedIn Profile, start making yourself look important and stop walking the entire lineup. As Sandy awaits a future trade he draws the roof closed in Arizona today & is not going to throw up some Sonny Gray type score here but his recent form is worth trusting him as more pre-injury Sandy than post-injury Sandy.
OTHER PITCHERS TO MENTION
- CHRIS BASSITT … One of my feelings on today is that the teams who didn’t do much offensively last night will break out today. A big spot is up in Fenway Park where Bassitt has to pitch in a small park – but it’s one stadium he has always done great in. Obviously if we just went off recent trends Bassit is pitching well and Boston is not hitting at all. The lefties are still the path to beating him up & Boston should have 5+ today, but the lefties include Nick Sogard, David Hamilton and Abraham Toro. Not exactly murders row. You can live with a solo HR to Wilyer Abreu and still trust him.
- ROBBIE RAY … NO
- Mikolas vs Cecconi … Mikolas might be tempting if J-Ram is out again, but not any better than the garbage above. Cecconi is pitching well but the Cardinals have too much LiC to worry about.
RAYS vs ORIOLES
Lowe(s), Cowser, Mullins, O’Hearn
These two pitchers just met two weeks ago in Tampa and Eflin was MURDERED by his former team. He followed that up with a poor start in New York. He’s a veteran, but until the Orioles as a team stop allowing teams to score 6+ runs in Camden consistently we should be more than comfortable attacking them. Not to mention, the Rays are the “go opposite after a blowout” team to first look at today.
Love Mullins, Cowser, O’Hearn for Baltimore too. This game has to be at the top of our list.
GIANTS / WHITE SOX
Adames, Yaz, Ramos, Some random White Sox guy who hits 2 homers like Miguel Vargas or …. AUSTIN SLATERRRRRRRRR
Folks, it’s not Wrigley Field but we should anticipate similar type results in this game. This is that random spot where the Giants hit 7 homers and set some new franchise record scoring 18 runs in a 18-13 win. Yes, the White Sox are gonna score off Ray. No, I have no clue who to really trust using on the White Sox. But Adames, Yaz, Ramos for the Giants is a good start… Oh, right. Devers. Yeah, uh, dont skip Devers in any Giants stacks. Please. Dont.
METS
Marte, Lindor, Soto, Alonso, Vientos
They might not hit more than 1 HR, however for “which team is going to score 14 runs and then 6 more off a position player named Adam” I will take the Mets for $500 Alex. Ball in play, runs all day long.
CATCHER
- Alejandro Kirk
- Agustin Ramirez
- Luis Torrens
FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins
- Pete Alonso
- Jonathan Aranda
- Ryan O’Hearn
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Nolan Gorman
- Matt McLain
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Mark Vientos
- Miguel Vargas
SHORTSTOP
Tons of options here today as one would expect.
- Willy Adames
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Gunnar Henderson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Austin Slater
- Colton Cowser
- Lars Nootbaar
- Starling Marte
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Heliot Ramos
- Juan Soto / Brandon Nimmo
- Oneil Cruz
- Josh Lowe
- Cedric Mullins
- AUSTIN SLATER – OF – CHICAGO WHITE SOX – HOLY FUCK THE CHAIRMAN IS A WHITE SOX
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Brewers
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Giants … Oh, right, Him.
- Alejandro Kirk – C – Blue Jays
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays … Fuck it … Lowe in Baltimore is quickly approaching Braun in Philly legendary status.
- Colton Cowser – OF – Orioles
- Lars Nootbaar – OF – Cardinals
- Willy Adames – SS – Giants
- BONUS …………… Agustin Ramirez – C – Marlins
Lineup construction: For a one lineup person, pay for your studs in the INFIELD and trust the value in the OUTFIELD today.
TOP BETS
Tampa/Baltimore OVER 9.5
San Francisco/Chicago OVER 8.5
Rangers ML
Mets -1.5
Parlay: Tampa/Baltimore YRFI + Mets/Pirates YRFI