WEATHER
All clear. Looking around the US weather — yes, I’m old — its going to get very very warm, very very quickly this upcoming weekend. Key thing to note is which teams bullpens start to get tired now because someone’s about to have a 3 HR day in the next 10 days off a bad pen and then a shitty positional player.
This is a mid range pitching slate tonight. Across the 10 games I wouldn’t put any one player as a ‘Strong’ this guy should be 40% owned ace. Yamamoto and McClanahan might be two of the more talented plays but neither is in the right spot today to give that label for.
Jack Flaherty (DK: $7300)
We could see ownership on the other SP here as for some reason Freddy Peralta is always the darling — probably the optimizer logic on his metrics & price pushing him to the top. But with Peralta you always have one of his first three innings where he has to face 6 batters and gives up 2 runs. Flaherty’s chances of going 1st to 6th inning with limited damage is better, and I prefer the lack of risk of facing the Mets than the Tigers.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (DK: $9500)
Had to throw him up here. He’s just too good to not think he won’t be in the top 3 tonight.
Eury Perez (DK: $8100)
Perez has not been as clean away from Miami, but he does get the benefit of an improved catcher behind the plate to limit base runners if he gives up some hits. The Twins are middle of the pack in strikeout % this season, so its mostly a neutral spot but I expect them to get worse as the season moves along.
OTHER THOUGHTS
- I think both Colin Rea and Grant Holmes should be looked at as options. They’re each viable to give up 2 HR but more likely to get you a 14 getting into the 6th inning in a game that’s got lots of good metrics and likely finishes 4-2 in favor of the team people my age grew up watching pre-MLB streaming packages…. (in other words… i have no fucking clue who wins this game but its going under). My slight lean here is actually on Rea.
- MacKenzie Gore vs Zac Gallen: Gallen’s just not been consistent enough & something is off with Gore right now. I think he is dealing with some blisters. The whiffs have gone away temporarily. They’ll come back, but Zona’s not the best spot for him.
CARDINALS vs ATHLETICS
The series where 1-9 should be touted on both sides. It’s the Tony LaRussa series… I would expect Pallante to have a long inning or two, which brings in the upside of the bottom of the Athletics lineup (Cortes/Butler/Gelof good value). Obviously Kurtz/Shea are viable but those positions are deep elsewhere too. For the Cardinals, I would be shocked if Jordan Walker doesn’t get ahold of one off Springs. Walker had a little down swing but with Springs being 60% either Fastball or Change-Up he should see less ball moving and thus Jobu doesn’t need any rum to help him tonight.
- Jordan Walker
- Masyn Winn
- Lawrence Butler
- Zack Gelof
ROYALS vs WHITE SOX
I think we get massive fireworks in this game & series. Would be good to see these two renew a rivalry with good young talent on both sides. Heavy winds out to RF and a couple decisions here to make. Murakami in the first game of the series is God-like, homering in 6 straight. Vinnie Pasquantino is going to hit no less than 2 extra base hits and 1 likely homer. Salvador Perez is going to fire himself up out of the grave like a zombie in Michael Jackson’s thriller and lord, happy Michael Massey day to those who celebrate.
- KC: Michael Massey / Vinnie Pasquantino / Maikel Garcia / Salvador Perez
- CWS: Munetaka Murakami / Sam Antonacci
RAYS
This isn’t just attacking Corbin (who’s really due for an injury at his old age tbh) it’s also a tired and struggling Toronto bullpen. Thus, we can throw in Mr. Toronto Killer Jonathan Aranda once more if we really want too but once again the Yandy at 1B debate comes up and tonight it’s hard to imagine Caminero not driving one into the hotel, so he’s the 3B play for sure in this stack.
- Junior Caminero
- Yandy Diaz
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Moises Ballesteros
- Drake Baldwin
FIRST BASE
- Munetaka Murakami
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Yandy Diaz / Jonathan Aranda
SECOND BASE
- Michael Massey
- Ketel Marte
- Darell Hernaiz
THIRD BASE
- Junior Caminero
- Manny Machado
- Maikel Garcia
- Brendan Donovan
SHORTSTOP
- Lt. Dan
- Colson Montgomery
- Masyn Winn
- Bobby Witt Jr.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jackson Merrill
- Jackson Chourio
- Jordan Walker
- Kyle Tucker
OUTFIELD – TIER II
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Riley Greene
- Sam Antonacci
- Lawrence Butler
- Michael Massey – 2B – Kansas City Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Munetaka Murakami – 1B – White So
- Junior Caminero – 3B – Rays
- Jackson Merrill – OF – Padres
- Jordan Walker – OF – Cardinals
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Dodgers
- Lt. Dan – SS – Cubs
- BONUS ……….. Lawrence Butler – OF – Atheltics
BETS
- Cardinals / Athletics – OVER 10.5
- Royals / White Sox OVER 9.5
- Vinnie Pasquantino over 1.5 total bases
- Miami Marlins ML