WEATHER
All clear
I have been doing this long enough now that I sometimes forget the fundamentals and the things I am good at. Over the years, when there has been an elite pitcher who is on a run and lapping the field I have always done well locking that guy in and being good at finding the 2% owned hitters around them. Kershaw, Scherzer, Cole, etc… They don’t come around every week, but when they are on a run, you ride it and it’s always been to my benefit. So I am trusting that today
JACOB MISIOROWSKI (DK: $11,600)
The legit question today is Misiorowski and nothing else. The price is where it should be & when the pitcher is locked in like he is the opponent never matters. It’s simply a question of when will he run out of gas or when will he take have some bad luck. I see neither happening here today since they’re in a dome & he’s not vulnerable to any afternoon unusual atmospheric pressure bullshit. So – yes – this should be another 30 points you are depositing into your score. Hitting actually looks sparse today as well, so good luck making up the 30 if he isn’t in your plans.
BRAXTON ASHCRAFT (DK: $9100)
This is my favorite play today & one path to fading Misiorwski is Ashcraft and the Sunday sleeper. He’s back on a great run as well with four of his last 5 allowing 1 ER or less through 6+ IP. And Braxton handles both RH and LH hitters about the same, so no split advantage with any Twins lefties in PNC. I think he shines and is with Misiorwoski in the 30 range. I want both to be honest.
DEEPER SP ANALYSIS
So this is actually a good slate for pitching – we’ll see how afternoon games impact things – but I think some other guys are going to pitch well, and flirt with 15-18 fpts. The problem is the two above are hitting 30 in my projection today. So, yeah, good luck.
- Sean Burke: This was my immediate thought on the ‘Sleeper’ category for today but we should be worried. Yes, he is cheap. I get it, the value conversation comes up and folks want to limit the $ spent on pitching. I’ll bet you Ashcraft doubles his score today. It’s that simple and when Riley Greene homers, you’ll be glad you didn’t have him (Burke that is).
- Ranger Suarez: Hard to pick on Cleveland at home and I question how long he can go today. His last three starts have been 76-81-91 in PC, so he should be ramped up for a longer outing, but Clevelands gonna work the count and it winds up being only 5 maybe 6 IP.
- Strider vs Lodolo: This is the tricky game today. Strider can definitely be trusted, but when the Reds are on at home, they hit homers & that’s his kryptonite along with too many walks. Lodolo is a fraud.
I will let the analysis in the positional breakdown section do the heavy lifting as we have to find good plays to fit around the ace pitchers rather than stacking and the blindly hoping it works out. But here are your teams who should produce the best results today
RED SOX
No f’n pitcher of Bibee’s level gives up 5 HR in one game and then comes out and isn’t cautious. If Boston is not full on stupid today they are patient, draw walks and have men on base every inning early on. It just becomes can they get a big RBI single to drive them in.
- Mayer, Yoshida, Contreras, Abreu
BREWERS
Usually teams when their ace pitcher is going under perform offensively. But the lefties should murder Tatsuya Imai because all lefties have whipped him all season.
- Bauers, Yelich, Turan
BRAVES @ REDS
You are homer hunting in this game and nothing else. It’s a one off spot
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Luis Torrens
- Freddy Fermin
FIRST BASE
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Jake Bauers
- Matt Olson
- Luis Garcia Jr.
SECOND BASE
Best spot on the slate for infield, so while a couple studs look nice, one should just take the free plays here for cheap and move on.
- Marcelo Mayer
- Zack McKinstry
- Brandon ‘Sunday Trip to’ Lowe’s
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – He is absolutely going to go on a tear now
THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado
- Luis Rengifo
- Austin Riley / Eugenio Suarez: Neither guy has touched a baseball all week with their bats. So. Yeah. They might make sense long term, but holy cold as fuck.
SHORTSTOP
- Marcelo Mayer
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Bo Bichette
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Stowers
- Masataka Yoshida
- Carson Benge
- Riley Greene
OUTFIELD – TIER II
- Angel Martinez
- J.J. Bleday
- Chandler Simpson
- Jac Caglianone
- Marcelo Mayer – SS – Boston Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Kyle Stowers – OF – Marlins
- Fernando Tatis Jr – 2B – Padres
- Riley Greene – OF – Tigers
- Salvador Perez – C – Royals
- Jake Bauers – 1B – Brewers
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Masataka Yoshida – OF – Red Sox
- BONUS ………………. Brandon Lowe – 2B – Pirates
BETS
- Padres / Nationals UNDER 9
- Twins / Pirates UNDER 7.5
- Royals ML
- Marlins / Mets YRFI