THE OPEN
The final Major already? Shit!
Top 70 and ties make the cut! THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN THE NORMAL 65 + TIES!
Pricing is “friendly” so it will be easier to stomach putting Scottie or Rory in lineups and the expanded number for the cut will help get more through. This is a tougher lineup construction in my opinion with all the quality guys at $8K and less – HELL! $7k and less!
Highlights: Royal Birkdale Golf Club
- Par 70 – 7,223 yards
- Fairways: You’ll see run that you don’t see in the U. S.
- Deep Fescue off the Fairways and 123 Bunkers (many deep)
- Smaller greens (Fescue) that will probably be firm and fast
- One hole with water
- As with all Scottish/British courses – Weather is the wild card!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
$10,000 and Above (in my order of preference)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500) – T13 last week and five straight Top 15s. This is a “home game” for him which can cut both ways – more comfortable and more pressure.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,900) – Scottie is gradually coming down and getting closer to Rory (or whomever is #2 in pricing), but I like Rory. I have always leaned somewhat towards European golfers on links courses. Still, that gap is closing for me as well.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,000) – Probably playing the most consistent right now of the four, but in the last 12 weeks, there are a lot of Top 10s and Top 15s among the four guys at five-figures.
- Scottie Scheffler ($13,300) – a missed cut last week (although not bad scores) moves him down a little for me. The price discrepancy of 10% between #1 and #2 still makes me hesitate. However, YOU CAN NEVER COUNT OUT “LOCK-AND-LOAD”AT THIS POINT IN THE SEASON!
This order is my order and there is very little difference between them if I were to quantify it numerically. It all comes down to (1) how much you want left for the rest of your lineup and (2) who YOU think will have the best chance to win.
$9,000 to $9,900 (in my order of preference)
There are only five guys in this range – which is unusual. Two missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open (Xander & Ludvig), two didn’t play and one finished T36. The kicker? All of these guys can win it!
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,300)
- Xander Schauffele ($9,800)
- John Rahm ($9,700)
- Cameron Young ($9,000)
- Justin Rose ($9,100)
I ranked the guys that played last week at the top. Xander and Rahm have the most consistent record at The Open. Aberg is going to win a major at some point and this could be it. He’s only played twice and finished T23 last year after missing the cut in 2024. Has he figured it out? Maybe not enough to win, but I like a Top 10.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Robert MacIntyre ($8,000) – Coming in with two straight Top 10s and three Top 10s at The Open in the last six years. AWESOME PRICE!!
- Chris Gotterup ($8,500) – probably the best play here that could win in my opinion. I still think he flies “under the radar” even though he’s made a lot of noise this year.
- Viktor Hovland ($8,300) – I think he’s back on the right track with his game. He’s playing better than last year. He was a Top 15 machine in his first three attempts at The Open but hasn’t faired as well lately. Coming in going T13 (Scottish) -Win-MC-3rd gives me hope.
- Wyndham Clark ($8,200) – T13-T5-Win-T11-3rd-Win in his last six events. HOW IS HE PRICED THIS LOW????
- Collin Morikawa ($8,700) – didn’t play last week – which I would have liked to have seen – but his play at The Open is feast or famine (3 missed cuts, T16 and a win in 2021).
I’ll mention Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900) and Bryson DeChambeau ($8,400), but I’m not feeling it this year with the two of them. Bryson seems to be in that “no-mans land” with the LIV debacle going on and, I think, should have followed Brooks Koepka ($7,600) back to the PGA Tour. Tyrrell is another feast-or-famine player here. He’s either Top 20 or misses the cut.
Starting in the next Tier and going down, this is where the rubber meets the road with quality picks. You will see guys priced below $8,000 that you would never think would be there.
$7,000 to $7,900
- Russell Henley ($7,700)
- Sam Burns ($7,800)
- Joaquin Niemann ($7,300)
- Justin Thomas ($7,500)
- Alex Fitzpatrick ($7,400)
- Patrick Reed ($7,000)
Under $7,000
- Hideki Matsuyama ($6,900) – Really?
- Tom Kim ($6,800) – disrespecting a “hot player” who won on a links course last week
- Brian Harman ($6,600) – three Top 10s in last four Opens (including a win)
- Si Woo Kim ($6,900)
- Rickie Fowler ($6,500) – No MC in last 12 years. At this price, no MC = $$$
- Akshay Bhatia ($6,600) – my longshot Top 10
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($6,100)
- Nicolai ($6,600) & Rasmus ($6,300) Hojgaard – Wild Cards! Can play extremely well or disappear like a dust bunny when the ceiling fan is on.
Under $6,000
- Jackson Suber ($5,700)
- Matthew Jordan ($5,700) – T10 in two of last three Opens
- Jesper Svensson ($5,700)
- John Parry ($5,800)
Longshot(s)
- Jordan Spieth ($7,200) – Although I can’t bring myself to list him as my favorites in that Tier, you can’t argue with his Open history – whether he’s playing well or not coming in. It’s hard to believe he’s played in the last 10 already but his finishes are: T40 – T25-T23-T8-2nd-T20-T9-Win-T30-T4! NO MISSED CUTS!
Jordan is the 24th highest-priced guy and his price is almost HALF of Scheffler’s! Do you now see why the pricing is so favorable and makes it harder to just say “ you can’t start with Scottie, Rory, Matthew or Tommy”?
- Patrick Cantlay ($7,000) – priced way to cheap but…
- Corey Connors ($6,800)
- Keegan Bradley ($6,500)
- Victor Perez ($6,400)
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!