Week 3. This is the week. The first two weeks of the NFL season are a feeling out process — new coordinators, rusty timing, Quarterbacks who look like they spent August on a boat. By week 3 the QB’s are warmed up and the stars start to shine. That’s the thesis for today and I’m sticking to it.
Here’s one of my 283 million random theories to go with it: divisional games in week 3 turn into shootouts when the game is actually competitive. These teams know each other off last years identities more than the adjustments each team has made this season – so nobody thinks they are surprised by anything schematically but in reality – they get fooled and it comes down to adjustments in game rather than in season.
Now the caveat. There aren’t many of them on this slate. Three. Niners/Cardinals is one of them and SF is -8.5, so that doesn’t count — not competitive, excluded. Texans/Colts is another one and fits on paper at HOU -1.5, but our Matchup Analyzer has two Colts pass catchers in its bottom 10 on the slate, so that one is a Houston-side lean at most.
Which leaves the one I care about.
TOP GAME OF THE WEEK
Bengals at Steelers:
Yep. That’s the spot. The public read on this game is an ugly AFC North rock fight, total sitting at 42.5 (43 in spots), and I get why. Pittsburgh has scored 23 points in two games. Rodgers has been sacked 6 times with 28 pressures allowed and threw for 187, 0 TD and a pick against New England. But flip it around. The Bengals are 2-0, Burrow threw two TD last week in a 20-6 win over Houston & Chase and Higgins combined for 170 yards receiving against a good secondary. Divisional, competitive (CIN -3), Quarterbacks warmed up. Burrow gets his and Rodgers plays his best game of the season because Rodgers always seems to have one of those in him when everyone has written him off — although he really looks dead so don’t expect many more.. Favorable for offense IF the weather is decent. And if it turns? I’m keeping it anyway.
Jets at Lions:
The best of the rest. Goff just threw for 327 and 4 TD in a loss, the Lions have had extra rest since that Thursday night game and the Jets linebacker room is banged up. This is where the Gibbs chalk comes from and I’m not fighting it.
Ravens at Cowboys:
The highest total on the slate at 53.5 and I’m avoiding it. Neutral site, potentially a bad field, and I just don’t want my lineup resting on a surface I don’t trust. Honesty moment — our Matchup Analyzer has Derrick Henry as the #1 matchup on the entire slate (+2.9 successful plays a game vs a neutral matchup) and he’s 28% owned. If he goes off, he goes off. I’ll live with it.
Raiders at Saints:
Cautious optimism can be a great thing until the damn breaks and then I just lose all control over myself. I’m obviously speaking about Tyler Shough’s ability to stay calm, cool and collected when it matters most. It’s something I, and other Saints fans, have seen since day 1 with him mid-year last season and it should continue.
But this game is about a lot more. For starters, Kubiak and the Raiders come into town with lots of confidence on their side as well. Kubiak of course got himself out of New Orleans as quick as he could to get away from the Dennis Allen HC stench but tried to come back when they were interviewing and ultimately the Saints wanted Kellen instead. You also have Saint killer Kirk Cousins still at the helm and playing well in his system with Brock Bowers making his season debut. Vegas is gonna show up and they’re gonna get pressure on Shough as well. I just don’t see this being that 31-27 type game. The Saints have to get more from their running game and if you wanna jump into this spot its either Jeanty/Bowers or Vele/Johnson for the Saints that I would look at.
STAT OF THE WEEK
Tee Higgins caught 59 passes last season. 11 of them were touchdowns. That’s a touchdown every 5.4 catches. Our own Bureau props guy likes Higgins UNDER 4.5 receptions on Sunday. He’s gonna be well over that this week, so stick it Bureau agents.
WEATHER & NOTABLES
- Bengals at Steelers: Keep an eye on Pittsburgh. If it gets nasty the stack stays. Divisional game, it’s getting played through the air one way or another.
- Breece Hall (knee) is a game-time decision. If he sits, Braelon Allen ($4400) is the guy.
- Brock Bowers (knee) is questionable but trending toward his season debut. Isaiah Likely is the pivot.
- Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) is questionable after missing Week 2. Only if he’s active.
- Nico Collins is OUT again. Jayden Daniels is OUT. Rico Dowdle looks like he’s out for Pittsburgh.
- Titans at Giants: Rain the whole way with 18-24 MPH wind. The lowest total on the slate just got uglier.
- Seahawks at Commanders: Rain early, lessening as it goes. Wind not a factor.
Quarterback doesn’t matter. You’ve heard it, you’ll hear it again next week. And this week I’m not sure we even need the pay up range. Mahomes, Allen, Kyler, Lamar? None of them for me. I’d rather take the guy in the game I actually believe in at the price nobody wants and spend the money where it matters.
JOE BURROW ($6600)
Burrow is healthier here and they aren’t asking him to do too much so far. But the guy who just threw two touchdowns in a 20-6 win, who had some back tightness in Week 2 and then went out and practiced fully all week, is sitting at $6600 on a slate where everyone is going to be clicking Mahomes and Allen.
The Bengals run game draws an EXTREME_TOUGH tier on our Dashboard, so if Cincinnati is scoring it’s going through the air, and it’s going to Chase & Higgins. The Steelers offensive line has given up 28 pressures in two games — a Pittsburgh team that can’t protect Rodgers is a team that ends up chasing points, and chasing points is how a 42.5 total goes over. Burrow-Higgins, run it back with Metcalf. That’s the build.
REST OF THE FIELD
- Jared Goff ($6300) – The Jets/Lions side of the house. 4 TD last week, home, rested, and he’s the key that unlocks Gibbs, St. Brown and LaPorta in one build.
The chalk this week is at RB. James Cook is 31% owned, Henry 28%, Gibbs 25%, McCaffrey 19%. You don’t have to be a hero at every spot. Pick the chalk you believe in, eat it, and get different somewhere else.
JAHMYR GIBBS ($8800)
Eat Gibbs. The Lions played on that Thursday night in Week 2, so he’s coming in off the long rest and he’s going to get a ton of touches. He’s the top cash rating on our entire board (92.2), projects for 24.4 with a 38-point ceiling and draws an EXTREME_SOFT DvP tier. Our Matchup Analyzer shows where it happens: quick outs, where Gibbs is succeeding 65% of the time vs 52% league average and the Jets are allowing 62%. The Jets linebackers are banged up. Pacheco is on IR. There is nobody to vulture this.
QUINSHON JUDKINS ($5500)
Judkins should be in our mix, assuming he’s clear after the mid-week illness — he was limited Wednesday for personal reasons and is expected to play. Now the honest part. Our Matchup Analyzer has him in the bottom 10 on the slate: 54% of his carries go left, where he’s at 31% success vs 43% league and 1.9 yards a carry, and Carolina defends it well. 2.3 yards per carry through two games is ugly. But he’s $5500, he’s 4% owned, and the one STRENGTH tag he has is short left in the passing game (75% success vs 53% league). You’re buying the workload and the price, and the Browns at +2.5 at home are a team I’m betting on anyway.
ALSO LIKE …
This is a deep RB week.
- Chuba Hubbard ($6700) – This is not a good Bryce Young spot this week. Carolina’s only hope is through Hubbard.
- Ashton Jeanty ($7100) – 81% of the snaps and 28 intended touches last week, and Bowers coming back pulls a safety out of the box. 8.6% owned.
- Christian McCaffrey ($8300) – My #1 after Gibbs. 28-point implied total for SF and he’s the whole offense with the WR room falling apart.
- James Cook III ($6900) – The chalkiest guy on the slate and I don’t mind it. Bills favored by 7 at home.
- Breece Hall ($6400) – Game-time decision with the knee. If he goes, the Analyzer loves him in the passing game (quick outs 71% success vs 52% league). If he sits, Braelon Allen ($4400) takes the full load.
MY RB FADE …
- Aaron Jones Sr. ($5900) – Questionable knee and a bottom 10 Analyzer matchup. Half his carries go right, where he’s succeeding 22% of the time vs 37% league. No thanks.
TEE HIGGINS ($6100)
Love him. If he’s healthy — and he got in a full practice Wednesday with the heel, so it’s looking that way. If he somehow sits, just slide up to Chase. Higgins is due for a big game. He’s 4.5% owned as the #2 option in a two-WR shell with Iosivas on IR, and our Matchup Analyzer backs it up: Go routes are 28% of his routes and he’s at 44% success vs 37% league for 12.9 yards a pop, and In/Dig he’s at 73% vs 55%. Both tagged STRENGTH. I can’t ever argue with Chase, but I’m banking on Higgins scoring.
GARRETT WILSON ($6300)
The #1 WR by GPP rating on our board and the Jets run-back in the Lions stack. 100 yards or a touchdown. No middle ground.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA ($8600)
This is your pay up WR. 22 targets, 17 catches, 277 yards and 4 TD through two weeks. Our Matchup Analyzer has him as the #3 matchup on the entire slate, and when you look at the detail it’s STRENGTH tags basically everywhere — hitch/curl at 68% success vs 56% league with Washington allowing 64%, deep outs at 70%, posts at 83% for 23 yards a catch. The Commanders secondary is a mess, and at $8600 he’s only 8% owned because everyone’s paying for RB. Let them.
DK METCALF ($5400)
The run back. Pittsburgh’s WR1 and healthy, and Rodgers has said the offense has to run through him. His Week 1 was 4 for 40 on 10 targets — the volume is there. The Analyzer likes the short stuff against Cincinnati: quick outs at 64% success vs 52% league with the Bengals allowing 66%, screens at 67% vs 42%, and the Bengals are allowing 80% success on shallow crosses. If Pittman is active, Michael Pittman Jr. ($4700) is the cheaper run back. Only if he’s active.
XAVIER WORTHY ($4400)
Here’s your leverage off the Rashee Rice chalk. Rice is $2000 more and nearly 16% owned. Worthy has a TD already, the Analyzer tags his quick outs (64% vs 52% league) and hitches (64% vs 56%) as STRENGTHS against a Miami defense giving up 60%+ on both. Mahomes is going to throw it to somebody. I’ll take the cheap one.
ALSO LIKE …
- Deebo Samuel Sr. ($5300): Top 10 Analyzer matchup on screens against Arizona, and he’s the last healthy starter standing in that WR room.
- Xavier Hutchinson ($4000): De facto WR1 in Houston with Collins out again. Led their WRs with 9 targets last week.
- Denzel Boston ($4500): 7 catches, 154 yards and 2 TD on 11 targets through two games. The rookie is the Browns WR1 now.
FADES …
- Parker Washington ($6000) – 13% owned chalk and the Analyzer hates it. WEAKNESS tags on his quick outs, go routes and posts. Pass.
- Rashee Rice ($6400) – Chalk. See Worthy.
- Josh Downs ($5700) – Bottom 10. Houston defends his hitch/curls well (43% allowed).
Don’t forget who’s coming back this week. The rest of TE is fine. Fine. But one guy on this slate can break it, and he’s 1% owned because nobody is sure he’s playing. (Still a proud founding member of #NeverKylePitts. He’s not even on the slate and I’m still saying it.)
ORONDE GADSDEN II ($3500)
I think there has to be a serious conversation in L.A. and not about Justin Herbert. It’s about Mike McDaniels — who in my mind has always been a fraud. Quietly when that question has to be there I lean into Justin Herbert simply putting the game on his arm more, which means he has more spots on the road where he has to take the simple pass & that’s to the TE. Gadsden played his college ball in Syracuse and could be in line here for a huge homecoming game.
ALSO LIKE …
ISAIAH LIKELY ($4700)
Healthy, TE1 for the Giants, and he’s seen 18 targets through two weeks. With Winston under center he’s the checkdown and the seam guy, and our Analyzer tags his hitch/curl (70% success vs 56% league) as a STRENGTH against Tennessee. Yes, I’m playing the Titans defense too. Likely catches 6 for 60 and the Titans still win. Everybody eats.
- Titans ($2400): Remember the Titans. Jameis Winston is starting for the Giants, in the rain, with 18-24 MPH wind. That’s the whole write-up.
- Chiefs ($3700)
- Seahawks ($3800)
FAVORITE PLAYS
QB – Joe Burrow
RB – Jahmyr Gibbs
WR – Tee Higgins
WR – Xavier Worthy [Value]
TE – Oronde Gadsden II [Value]
DST – Titans
SLEEPER STUDS
WR – Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks
RB – Ashton Jeanty – Las Vegas Raiders
SLEEPER VALUE
WR – Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs – $4400
FAVORITE ALL IN GAME STACKS
Bengals at Steelers: Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, DK Metcalf (or Michael Pittman Jr. if active) and/or Pat Freiermuth
Jets at Lions: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta, Garrett Wilson
FAVORITE BETS
Bengals / Steelers OVER 43
Titans +2.5
Browns +2.5
ANYTIME TUDDY PARLAY
Tee Higgins
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Oronde Gadsden II