Detroit has scored exactly 31 points in all three of its games and is 2-1, which tells you where the problem is. The Lions’ defense is allowing 0.448 EPA per dropback, and the damage is downfield: 2.533 EPA per throw to the deep right on eight attempts and 1.513 to the deep middle on nine, with both starting safeties still on the PUP list. Carolina is a stranger team. It lost 59-37 to Chicago, beat Atlanta 34-3, and across all three games its pass defense has allowed only 0.089 EPA per dropback, a number that somehow includes the 59.
The market spent the week on Carolina’s injury report: both starting corners went to IR and the starting left guard is out. Detroit moved from a 3-point favorite to 3.5, and 4 at two books. Fair enough. The DFS crowd has turned that into a Detroit-only game, with Jared Goff on 48% of rosters and Jahmyr Gibbs on 43%. Our 20,000-game simulation, built on the market’s own team totals, still has Carolina winning 36.8% of the time and getting to +3.5 in 51.1%. The secondary most likely to get torched Sunday night is the one in Honolulu blue. Where we break from the field:
- Carolina’s passing game: Tetairoa McMillan has the second-highest ceiling among receivers and is on 6.4% of rosters, against the defense that leaks the most downfield.
- Sione Vaki: overpriced in DFS at 62% owned and underpriced at +800 to score. It’s the same player, and both boards have him wrong.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: his snaps dipped last week and the field cooled to 16%. Our simulation still gives him 10.4 targets.
Model vs. market: anytime touchdowns
We turned projected rushing and receiving touchdowns into the probability of scoring at least once and compared it with the best price at the six books we use. As usual, our projections run lighter on touchdowns than the books, so the column that matters is the ratio: the share of the market’s price that our model supports.
| Player | Best price | Market | Model | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB | -320 | 76.2% | 60.4% | 0.79 |
| Chuba HubbardCAR · RB | -125 | 55.6% | 44.7% | 0.81 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR | -115 | 53.5% | 32.8% | 0.61 |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR | +135 | 42.6% | 21.1% | 0.50 |
| Sione VakiDET · RB | +800 | 11.1% | 29.7% | 2.68 |
| AJ DillonCAR · RB | +800 | 11.1% | 21.1% | 1.90 |
The starters fall where they usually do. Hubbard at 0.81 is the closest to fair, and Gibbs at 0.79 is a very likely touchdown priced as a near certainty. McMillan’s 0.50 is the warning on the board. His case is yards and targets, not the end zone, and that matters for how we use him below. The two backups are where the model and the books really disagree. Our projection gives Vaki seven carries and 0.31 rushing touchdowns. The game simulation is more cautious (three carries, 0.13 touchdowns), but even that version puts him at about 16%, well above the 11.1% the price implies. Dillon’s numbers come out the same in both versions: about 17-21% against 11.1%.
Model vs. market: ownership
The crowd is saving salary to fit Goff and Gibbs together. Vaki is projected at 62% for a 9.2-point ceiling at $3,000, and two $200 Panthers, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Anthony Tyus III, are near 55% each. That leaves the expensive Carolina players nearly unowned. McMillan’s 26.2 ceiling (his simulated top end is 50.7) sits at 6.4%, and Hubbard’s 27.0 ceiling sits at 6.1%. Between them they carry a fifth of Vaki’s ownership. Hubbard’s snaps jumped 19 points to 84% last week with seven more carries. Detroit’s run defense has been the sturdier half of its unit (0.092 EPA per carry), so Hubbard is a volume play, not a matchup play, but 84% of the snaps at 6% ownership is a gap worth taking.
Bryce Young at 26% is the other side of that coin. Our Board rates him poorly as a captain (29.3) because the simulation has him sacked 4.37 times, more than twice Goff’s 2.01. That same gap is why the Lions DST rates 76.1 as a flex at 7% ownership while the Panthers DST rates 23.9.
Team context worth carrying
- Detroit: In Goff’s 16 logged starts, Sam LaPorta has been his most efficient regular target by a distance, at 0.827 EPA per target on 47 looks. Efficiency isn’t volume, though. The simulation gives LaPorta 5.7 targets and 3.8 catches, which is the basis for one of the bets below.
- Carolina: Detroit arrives with 12 sacks and 24 QB hits in three games (Aidan Hutchinson has 3.5). Carolina’s starting left guard is out and the right tackle is in the concussion protocol. Young’s best area this season has been the deep right (1.518 EPA per throw), which is also Detroit’s worst. It’s a race between those two facts on every dropback.
See the full showdown analysis. Captain board, every prop against our projection, the optimizer and exposure.
Captain and build
St. Brown is the captain. On our ceiling-weighted ranking (65% ceiling, 35% projection) he’s second only to Gibbs. At 16.1% he’s the Lion the field is leaving alone, while Gibbs at 43% is the captain everyone else will have. The reason for the discount is real: last week his snaps fell 21 points to 74% and his targets fell by five. Our simulation still has him at 10.4 targets with a 30.1-point 90th percentile, and he gets a Carolina secondary playing without both of its starting corners. Young, Hubbard and McMillan follow. The bet is that Detroit wins and Carolina keeps throwing into the softest coverage on the field.
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The bets
- Sione Vaki anytime TD, +800 (FanDuel; +750 at DraftKings and Fanatics). Our projection has him at 29.7% and our simulation at about 16%. Either one clears the 11.1% the price implies. The DFS field is overpaying for him, but the touchdown market isn’t.
- AJ Dillon anytime TD, +800 (FanDuel; +700 at BetMGM). Our projection has him at 21.1% and our simulation at about 17%, both well clear of the implied 11.1%. Keep both of these small: they’re backup backs, and the variance is the whole bet.
- Sam LaPorta Under 4.5 receptions, -140 (FanDuel, BetMGM). Our Bureau has the Under at 65.5% against the 58.3% the price implies. The simulation agrees at 3.8 catches.
There’s no captain touchdown this week. St. Brown’s best price, -115 at BetMGM, implies 53.5% and our model supports 32.8%. The total isn’t a bet either. Our Bureau flagged the Over 51.5 at close to even money earlier in the week, but the six books now ask -108 or more and the simulation goes over 50.4% of the time. That’s a coin flip with vig attached. We’re also passing on the spread: getting Carolina +4 at -110 is a 51% proposition at best.
Method: model touchdown probability = 1 − e−λ, where λ is projected rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Game simulation: 20,000 runs, team scoring drawn around the market’s implied totals, with everything inside from our play-by-play. All numbers are from the DailyAmbush showdown ratings, projections and Bureau board as of Sunday afternoon. Lines move, so check your book before the 8:20 ET kickoff.