Sit down. Shut the door. We’re going over the books on Tailgate Week 5, the one where our guy opened with a story about piping a drive down the middle and closed it by saying he felt that way about his plays.
Lemme tell you something. For a lot of this card, he wasn’t wrong. The RB core was a beautiful thing, the bets went three for three, and the cheap S-FLEX he tossed in at the end turned into the best QB on the slate. But there’s also a quarterback he called “the anchor” off vibes, a Play of the Day that never showed up, and a core receiver at 20% owned who left a hole in the ledger.
He said nothing about putting. Fine. I’m the guy who checks the putting.
THE GOOD
Aiden Flora ($6300 – Iowa State)
“He is the chalk. Chalk in cash.” And the chalk paid. 22-212-3 on the ground, and the kid also went 2-for-2 throwing for 48 yards and two touchdowns. 52.1 DK points, the RB1 on the slate, on 24.78% ownership. The model had him the #4 RB. When the chalk is actually worth it, you eat the chalk. Good call, good process.
Jamal Roberts ($7300 – Missouri)
Core play, model’s #1 RB, and the whole backfield to himself just like the article said. 24-211-3 with three catches for 29, 48.0 DK points, the RB2 on the slate at 15.36% owned. “RB1 and RB2 without hesitation.” Flora and Roberts together put up 100.1 points. That’s not a hot take, that’s a deposit.
Anthony Evans III ($6800 – Mississippi State)
“Eat the chalk.” 12-166-2, 43.6 DK points at 18.34%, the WR2 on the slate and the model’s #2 WR. And the article floated playing him without Kamario Taylor and running Russell on the other side. That was the right instinct. Evans paid. Evans paid with interest.
Jeremiah Smith ($9400 – Ohio State)
“Just fucking play Jeremiah Smith.” The article guessed 8-200-3. He went 11-206-2, 46.6 DK points, WR1 on the slate. Model #1 WR at 27.51% owned. Not a brave call, but the right one, and he said it with his chest.
DJ Epps ($5200 – West Virginia)
An honorable mention at 0.96% owned: “One catch is a good day, two is a slate breaker.” He caught four. 4-114-1, 23.4 DK points, WR8 on the slate. Nobody had him. Our guy did.
THE BAD
Amare Thomas ($6600 – Houston)
Play of the Day, core play, “it’s not even up for debate.” It got debated. 4-43-0, 8.3 DK points on 11.11% owned. Here’s the thing: the article’s own condition held. Houston won 27-17, a one-score-and-change game, exactly the script where “he gets 10+ targets.” He didn’t. The model had him the #6 WR, so this wasn’t freelancing. Right call, wrong day. It happens. Nobody’s getting whacked for that.
Duce Robinson ($4100 – Florida State)
This one I gotta look at harder. Core play at 20.21% owned, and the whole case was a game script: “I like Virginia in this game, which means FSU is throwing in the second half.” Florida State won 38-7. Nobody was throwing. 2-18-0, 3.8 DK points. And the same article had Daniels as the S-FLEX, so on one page FSU is trailing and on the next their quarterback is the value play. You can’t have it both ways. That’s process.
Beau Pribula ($7600 – Virginia)
Same game, same read. 14/32 for 168 and a score, 15 rushes for minus 62, 4.5 DK points, QB21 of 25. Model #8, so not off the board, but the pick hung on Virginia, and Virginia scored 7.
Fluff Bothwell ($7100 – Mississippi State)
1-1-0, 0.1 DK points, model #5 RB. The article flagged the knock and named J.J. Hill as the swap. Hill went for 0.6. Both ends of the hedge came up empty. That’s an injury, not a read. Moving on.
Jadan Baugh ($9800 – Florida)
“The best player on the slate.” 12-13-0 with three catches for 17, 6.0 DK points at $9800. Paying up for the back on the team you bet against is a tension on the card, but it was offered as an alternate, not core. Small debt.
THE AMAZING
Ashton Daniels ($6500 – Florida State)
Three lines in the article. “Great value.” “Kind of leaning into this as our S-FLEX play.” That’s it. And Daniels went 12/19 for 183 through the air, then ran 17-136-5. Five rushing touchdowns. 52.9 DK points, the QB1 on the slate, at 10.87% owned. The model had him #11 at the position. This was a call against the model, at a cheap price, and it was the best score on the whole slate. What are we doing here? We’re framing it. That’s what we’re doing.
THE UGLY
Kamario Taylor ($8100 – Mississippi State)
“The stud, the anchor. If he is on this slate is pretty much over without him.” Then, same paragraph: “the model was down on him” and “all the vibes I get here.” The model had him rated 47.4, the #12 QB. Up top, the games section even said “our model isn’t pushing him against this defense.” He played, went 19/34 for 258 with three scores and two picks, ran six times for minus 26, and finished at 16.7 DK points, QB15 of 25. Alabama won 56-23.
Not the outcome, the process. The article wrote down that the data said no, then called him the anchor anyway. Fuhgeddaboudit. When you write “the model was down on him” in your own column, that’s your guy telling you something. Listen to your guy.
THE MODEL
Spearman rho by position: QB 0.489 on rating and 0.583 on projection, RB 0.511 and 0.463, WR 0.514 and 0.497. Decent, not dominant. The top-10 rated averaged 26.1 actual vs 21.8 projected at QB, 21.8 vs 18.9 at RB and 16.8 vs 16.2 at WR, so the board’s top end over-delivered.
Where the article rode the model, it got paid: Roberts (#1 RB, 48.0), Smith (#1 WR, 46.6), Evans (#2 WR, 43.6), Flora (#4 RB, 52.1). Keelon Russell was the model’s #2 QB and the article’s QB1: 16/22, 285 yards, 3 TD plus a rushing score, 31.0 DK points, QB7. Fine, not a slate-winner at $8800.
Where the article went off the model: Taylor (#12) hurt, Daniels (#11) won the slate. Call it even on the scoreboard, but only one of those was a reasoned call.
The model’s own misses: Baugh (#3 RB, 6.0), Bothwell (#5 RB, 0.1), Tyrell Henry (#5 WR, 5.4), Jaylen Raynor (#5 QB, 15.1) and Gunner Stockton (#3 QB, 26.0 at $8700 on 20.3% owned). On the low end it whiffed on Cody Jackson (#70 WR, 0.61% owned, 6-160-1 for 31.0), Conner Weigman (#14 QB, 32.6) and cheap backs Traeshawn Brown (#34, 21.8) and Dwight Phillips Jr. (#35, 21.2).
Now the part the Tout won’t love. The model’s #1 QB was Michael Hawkins Jr. at 8.48% owned. He went 11/23 for 227 and two scores plus 20-149-2 on the ground, 46.0 DK points, QB2. Never named. Neither was Colton Joseph (#4 QB, 40.9), Cam Cook (#2 RB, 31.7), DeSean Bishop (#10 RB, 34-220-3, 43.0), Jordan Faison (#17 WR, 36.2), Kenny Darby (#33 WR, 27.6), Junior Sherrill (#15 WR, 26.7) or Josh Derry (#30 WR, 26.1). The article had three guys from the WVU-Iowa State game, the one that went 87 points, and skipped the model’s top QB in it.
THE BETS
Missouri +5.5: Mizzou won 45-17. Cashed, and the ML sprinkle cashed too. “The 5.5 theory rides again.” It rode.
Minnesota +5.5: Minnesota won 20-14 outright. Cashed.
Alabama/Mississippi State OVER 60.5: 56-23, 79 points. Cashed with room to spare.
Three for three, plus the ML. No live bets on the card. I got a guy who keeps a ledger on these things, and he’s smiling for once.
THE VERDICT
Grade: B+
The RB core, the chalk at WR and a perfect betting card carried it, and the Daniels S-FLEX was the best call on the slate. It loses points for the anchor QB on vibes, a Play of the Day and a core WR that combined for 12.1, and a game-script read on FSU-Virginia that ran backwards.
What carries into next week: when you write that the model’s down on a guy, believe it. When a game read drives a pick, make sure the rest of the card agrees with it. And look at the model’s #1 QB before you go to print.
That’s the service. Capisce? Same time next week.