The headline game this weekend is the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma, which features a juicy 72.5 over/under and a narrow 2.5 spread.  This is one of six games that are in the Noon EST start time window.  All total there are twelve games on the DraftKings main slate with three at 3:30 PM EST and three at 4:00 PM EST this weekend.

The number in front of the games is the over/under with the favored team spread in ()’s.

 

TOP TIER GAMES

72:  Texas vs Oklahoma (-2.5) … Game is played as always at the Cotton Bowl

57:  Florida (-6.5) at Texas A&M

64: Texas Tech at Iowa State (-12.5)

 

MID RANGE GAMES

63:  UTSA at BYU (-34.5)

63:  N.C. State at Virginia (-9.5)

60:  Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-5.5)

51: Duke (-2.5) at Syracuse

 

GAMES THAT I HAVE LITTLE TO NO INTEREST IN

41:  South Carolina (-13) at Vanderbilt

42:  Tennessee at Georgia (-12.5)

48:  Arkansas at Auburn (-14)

50:  Kansas State at TCU (-8.5)

44:  Pittsburgh (-6) at Boston College

 

TOP GAMES OF THE DAY

CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in,  balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.

Marquee Game

Red River Rivalry:  Texas vs Oklahoma

It’s always a big shootout when these teams meet and one should expect the Oklahoma offense to have a major get right game here against a bad Texas defense in a back and forth shootout with Ehlinger and his weapons on the Longhorns side.  Only one time in the last five meetings have both these teams been held under 30 points scored and the under has came through the last two seasons — which tells you how normal it is to have a 70+ projected total.  This years game shapes up to be one where we see both offenses actually light it up and give the under betters a big sweat.  In a normal season both teams might be coming into this game a little worn down, but I see them hitting on all cylinders for this game.

Oklahoma is the side we have to get right.  Is it on the ground against a weak Texas rushing defense allowing over 4 YPC with T.J. Pledger ($5,500) and Seth McGowan ($5,700) or will Spencer Rattler continue to grow into the offense and do things not just with his legs but with a couple elite WR options in Charleston Rambo ($7,000) and the speedy Freshman Marvin Mins ($6,200).  That’s where your choice in this game will be and for me I love the idea of Mims having a big game here as he’s found the endzone three times already and appears to be their home run threat.

Texas is much clearer.  Ehlinger and slot man Joshua Moore will lead the way and if you want to full game stack any one of Eagles, Black and Schooler are seeing over 10% share of targets here as well.

Texas:  Sam Ehlinger, Jake Smith, Josh Moore, Brennan Eagles

Oklahoma:  Spencer Rattler, Marvin Mims, Charleston Rambo, Theo Wease (Value)

 

The Undercard & Late Afternoon Hammer

Texas Tech vs Iowa State

Want a little must own chalk of the week?  Look no further than a smash spot for Breece Hall.  Through three games he’s getting it 22 times a game and going over 130 yards with 2 scores per game, now he draws a Texas Tech defense which allows the opposing teams punter to expose himself as being the punter on the team, which isn’t good when he tries to go out that night and party with his football uniform on.

Given how much Texas Tech throws the ball and the fact that TJ Vasher is their best wide receiver, someone needs to explain to me who on DraftKings thought it was a good idea to let his price fall to $4,600?  Hello???  He is too good of a receiver and someone I trust in the red zone a ton.

Texas Tech:  T.J. Vasher

Iowa State:  Breece Hall

 

ACC One offs

I am lumping all three of these games together because it’s hard to completely ignore the Oklahoma/Texas game but there are some spots which offer good one off options.

N.C. State vs Virginia

A Virginia Quarterback?  Breaking the slate?  Well, N.C. State has done nothing to stop anyone on the ground or through the air, and Brennan Amstrong is gonna setup to do both this week, while being the top value Quarterback on the slate at $6,800.  As you can tell, it’s a deep Quarterback week and taking a risk off the OU-UT game is definitely a risk — but one which will offer great upside to spend elsewhere.  This is just Brennan Armstrong for me on the Virginia side, however Emeka Emezie should have his way against UVA’s secondary and is getting 20% targets.  He’s a fantastic value at $5,100 on DraftKings.

 

Sneaky Game

Florida at Texas A&M

If Florida really is who they have shown in the first two games then this game will shootout and might be higher scoring than the Texas-OU game.  When I say that, I do not just mean the Florida offense as their defense to me is not what it has been in years past and will definitely give up some points this year.  They remind me of LSU from last season but without the depth necessarily that LSU had to just drop 50 on everyone no matter who they were playing.  So this is the real test, against an A&M team who will no doubt try to take away Kyle Pitts as much as they can and historically has been good against the pass.  Look for the speedy Kadarius Toney (listed as a RB) to pop off for Florida again.

Florida:  Kadarius Toney (RB, but used as WR)

Texas A&M:  Kellen Mond (QB), Jalen Preston (WR), Isaiah Spiller (RB)

 

 

MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS

Game Stack Options

Sam Ehlinger (Texas) and Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma)

#AlwaysEhlinger, but I would only stack these two together if you are fully riding this game.  They’re just too expensive on this deep QB slate to say they are must owns.

Kyle Trask (Florida) and Kellen Mond (Texas A&M)

Two things I am looking for here.  1) Is Trask match-up proof.  2) Is the Florida defense middle of the road.  If both ring true, you’ll be good with both QB in this game.

 

One Offs

Brennan Armstrong (UVA) … $6900 for a dual threat QB against a horrific defense.  Next question.

Brock Purdy (Iowa State)

 

RUNNING BACKS

Breece Hall (Iowa State)

This is a QB-WR depth loaded slate and he is the only Running Back who has an ELITE match-up.

Deon Jackson (Duke)

Hot take, Duke wins this week and Jackson has 100 yards rushing and two scores.

Tyler Allgeier (BYU)

The team you must have a one off from this weekend is BYU.  They’re playing at high efficiency on offense and should be able to thump the Roadrunners, which makes their RB’s a favorable spot to look at.

Isaiah Spiller (Texas A&M)

What are we doing here DraftKings?  Only $4,400?  So tempting for me to take Spiller who usually has a ceiling of around 12-14 points but on this week that feels good enough.

 

OTHERS

Javonte Williams (North Carolina)

Kevin Harris (South Carolina)

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

YOU NEED TWO OF THESE GUYS

Marvin Mims & Charleston Rambo (Oklahoma)

Jake Smith & Joshua Moore or Brennan Eagles (Texas)

 

OTHERS

T.J. Vasher (Texas Tech) … Vasher and the sleeper I have listed below are my two favorite one off WR on this slate.  This is a 2 TD game waiting to happen for Vasher against Iowa State in the late afternoon hammer game.  Assuming Bowman plays, lock him in.

Anthony Schwartz (Auburn) – $4100 for a guy who can take it 70 yards every time he touches the ball.

Taj Harris (Syracuse) … There are two almost must plays if priced too low guys this season.  One is Shi Smith for South Carolina and Harris is the other.  Both get the majority of their targets and play for teams who normally are going to be trailing.  Since Smith is 7k and actually a favorite in a game they can win on the ground I’ll go with Harris this week.  Correlate him with Deon Jackson if you play Harris.

Charlie Kolar (Iowa State) … Nice FanDuel value where TD’s matter more than receptions.

Dax Milne / Gunner Romney (BYU)

 

SLEEPER

Dazz Newsome (North Carolina)

I expect a very close game with Virginia Tech’s defense causing some havoc against the UNC Passing game.  But Dazz Newsome has only seen 8.2% targets this season compared to 24% in 2019 as everything has filtered through Junior Dyami Brown.  Brown sets up to be a good play again this week at only $5,600, however one of these weeks  the speedy Newsome is going to break one.

 

CORE BUILD:  

Brennan Armstrong, Breece Hall, Marvin Mims, Dazz Newsome