I feel really good about this set of games that are coming up this weekend. So let’s make it a great one as we kick off a normal 15 game Friday that has an afternoon game in Wrigley and a couple Senior Citizen games not included on the Main slates tonight.
All total, 12 games for DK/FD Main slates locking at the regular 7:05 first pitch.
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WEATHER
Dare I say there are ZERO issues today? That is indeed the case because one spot with rain is Texas and they built themselves a damn roof down there.
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GERRIT COLE
Early in the season the Yankees faced the Tigers, because you know, the Yankees basically faced all the shitty teams in April and got their confidence through the roof. In that spot, Cole had one of his worst — if not his worst, — outings as a Yankee and so anyone who tries to drum up “oh he’s gonna suck vs them” is just a plain ole donkey who isn’t really paying attention.
The Tigers suck right now. They have a .231 AVG over the last 10 days and a 22% strike out rate. Versus cole they’re rated pretty low on the upside (risk) meter today and Cole is pitching at home and in the best form of the season. I just wasted a good 30 seconds of your day to say this.
Play Gerrit Cole please.
NATE EOVALDI
Boston will be in Oakland tonight and while the Red Sox have a history of not hitting in Oakland, we can ignore their bats and focus on the other side of this massive park shift. Eovaldi against the Athletics should result in lots of late swing foul balls that get caught for easy outs and 6+ strikeouts total today. At $8k flat on DraftKings he is an ideal SP2 to pair with Cole.
LOGAN GILBERT
If Gilbert can match Cole tonight or come close then this pivot is worth the extra savings to lock in my top hitting options. Gilbert is a good pitcher in an environment which plays better for SP’s with the roof closed and he’s really learned how to pitch consistently every single start this year. Look for a strong 20+ point outing from Gilby today.
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Other Studs who should pitch well and can be used to diversify around Cole/Eovaldi if you want: Shane McClanahan, Joe Musgrove
SLEEPER PICK HUNTING …
There is not a lot that stands out to be better than the Cole-Eovaldi build today. I am not touching Jose Urquidy as he is mostly a one pitch guy who has been hti by RH batters even if he is facing team that probably couldn’t beat the ’27 Yankees if they played today. Please note, the ’27 Yankees are all dead you see, but I would still peg Waite Hoyt to go 8 innings of shutout ball vs the Royals. It’s not like you can tear a ligament when you are dead, right? So literally just pitch him until his arm falls off and he can beat the Royals. But not Jose Urquidy, no, we can’t do that.
So that leads me to these two cheaper SP2 options tonight
James Kaprielian in the same game as Eovaldi is worth taking a flyer on. He has done well vs RHH with a near 28% strike-out rate and pitching in the friendly Coliseum will ehlp.
Chad Kuhl is never someone we want to push too hard here. But lets not forget that the Braves are among the highest K% upside teams in the league and how often have the Braves really done it two nights in a row? There’s a ton of leverage with Kuhl in Coors tonight.
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So last night I posed the stacks model and teams in Green were Orioles-Nationals-Mariners-Reds-Dodgers-Cubs. Four of those did not disappoint one bit.
The bottom teams were Padres, Brewers, Marlins and Mets. None of those teams did a damn thing.
Alright Model, whatcha got before I give out my analysis plays?
I am kinda shocked to see the Dodgers coming in at the top of this list considering how Bassitt has pitched but it is worth noting that Bassit has given up 7 HR in his last 6 starts. He struggled in two games vs the Giants this season and there are some similarities with the Dodgers lineup from a LHH perspective here.
The Blue Jays will no doubt be my favorite team tonight, how does one not immediately go to a bar and tell the bartender we’re gonna need two drinks to start things off. One for Chi Chi Gonzalez and the other for Yusei Kikuchi. This is a fantastic pitching match-up if you like guys with great names to make fun of that is. The Jays are a ticking time bomb ready to explode for 13 runs tonight or tomorrow.
Put the White Sox in the category of teams that might finally wake up soon and should be 2% owned against one of the best pitchers in the game. That DCPA xISO is incredibly high.
We’re not gonna be touching (for good reason) the Padres, Tigers, Pirates (no chance they win this series), Brewers.
Soo, on with my gut recommendations.
JAYS & TWINS
Springer, Bichette, Vlad, Teoscar Hernandez, Pat Borders, Ed Sprague … You get the idea
Yusei Chi Chi Gonzalez and I say give me all the damn Toronto Blue Jays. How much? Okay, I’ll double it. I don’t know how long Chi Chi is going to last but it should be a nice fiesta for Toronto and a bunch of Chimichunga homers.
DIAMONDBACKS (BOOST+)
Rojas, Smith, Marte, Peralta, Walker
Not only is this team popping up on the Boost+ ratings tonight but I am boosting them into the top tier category. The Rojas, Peralta and Smith law firm all getting LH at bats in a lefty park vs someone who gives up 1.8 HR/9 in J.T. Brubaker should be a solid spot to look at. Arizona hits well on the road and this law firm is trusted over the J.T. Brubaker offices tonight.
ANGELS
Ohtani, Walsh, Stassi
Ohtani tonight, Trout tomorrow, both Sunday. While the Phillies have ousted Joe Girardi, one doesn’t immediately expect tonights starter Zach Eflin to put out another strong performance like he did a couple weeks ago against the Dodgers. Ohtani Ambush to start things off.
GUARDIANS
Straw, Ramirez, Rosario, Miller
A team who puts the ball in play as much as Cleveland does getting a low K% match-up most likely against Bruce Zimmerman in this now big left field park should result in lots of innings with plenty of men on base. This is a nice value spot to find some guys who will not homer but produce with multi-hit games.
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Other teams that peak my interest …
Astros – Alvarez/Brantley/Altuve
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Tonight’s top BOOST+ players with higher ratings than normal:
Alejandro Kirk/Danny Jansen (Whichever starts is rightfully our auto C1), Brendan Rodgers (hey, nice job catching up model, you’re a bit late though), Jake Burger, Eduardo Escobar, Austin Riley, George Springer, Pavin Smith (LiPNC), Joey Hell No Gallo, Josh Rojas (LiPNC), Byron Buxton, David Peralt (LiPNC), Austin Hays.
Out of that group, Jansen, Rodgers and Rojas have DCPA ratings above 90 and higher than normal.
In english this means those are the guys who have a match-up tonight which is far greater than normal for them.
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CATCHER
- Whichever Jays catcher starts. Both have been hitting well and both are reasonably priced.
- Daulton Varsho
- Elias Diaz
FIRST BASE
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – $4300 on DK. Comedy my friends… Comedy.
- Jose Abreu
- Owen Miller (2B also)
SECOND BASE
- Brendan Rodgers
- Ketel Marte
- Jorge Polanco
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman
- Josh Rojas
- Gio Urshela
SHORTSTOP
Should have been a nice little Seager ruinion series, but Kyle went and retired.
- Corey Seager
- Beaux Bichette
- Bobby Witt Jr
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Shohei Ohtani
- Yordan Alvarez
- Luis Robert
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Contrarian / Tier 2
- Luis Robert
- Pavin Smith
- Byron Buxton
- Cody Bellinger
- Teo Hernandez – not the contrarian guy in this group
OUTFIELD – Value
- David Peralta
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Mickey Moniak
- Oscar Gonzalez
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- Shohei Ohtani – DH – Angels – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Owen Miller – 2B – Guardians
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- Vlad Guerrero – 1B – Blue Jays
- Luis Robert – OF – White Sox
- Josh Rojas – 3B – Diamondbacks
- Kyle Garlick – OF – Twins
- BONUS ………………………… Cody Bellinger – OF – Dodgers
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CORE BUILD
There is enough value here for a single lineup to pick out these top 4 guys tonight and build around them. Specifically value from the Diamondbacks and Guardians on DK. FanDuel I would ride with either SP as your pitcher.
Gerrit Cole
Nathan Eovaldi
Vlad Guerrero Jr
Shohei Ohtani
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OWNERSHIP THOUGHTS
The White Sox and Chad Kuhl are spots that stand out as worthy of taking low ownership shots on. I would stay away from Coors Field heavy stacks tonight as everyone will rush there again and I believe in Fried/Kuhl to keep things tame finally.
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BETTING PLAYS
Angels/Phillies OVER 8.5
Diamondbacks ML
Rockies ML
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