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DAILY-AMBUSH · May 6, 2022

The Dongers Club – May 6th

Welcome to the Friday edition of what has been a nice week in The Dongers Club.  Tonight was a 13 game slate but it’s already dropping down to fewer games due to a ton of rain in the East which is going to continue through most of the weekend.

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WEATHER

Texas-NY Yankees:  Game PPD

NY Mets-Philadelphia:   Game PPD

Kansas City-Baltimore:   She’s gone

Toronto-Cleveland:   She’s gone too

ChiSox-BoSox:  Should play

Everything else looks fine with the roof being open in Chase Field, closed in Seattle and TBD in Houston.

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The largest impact that the massive amount of rain is going to cause on this slate is in the pitching department, where we once had Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber potentially on the slate and then what was a deep pitching slate becomes a very mediocre one.

LOGAN GILBERT

In his second year Gilbert is taking the next step which the Mariners had hoped for to potentially being their future #1.  Through his first five starts he has gone 5+ IP in each start, allowed a total of 2 ER and has posted DK Scores 20 or greater each outing.  Including on April 26th when he went into Tampa and struck out 7 Rays with 3 walks on 104 pitches.

He has gone 100+ in the Pitch Count department in his last two, so there is some increased risk coming as he carries a higher workload than ever before in his big league career, but for tonight I don’t see any major holes and his slider should get 6+ strikeouts out of this Rays lineup.

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SANDY ALCANTARA

While Yu Darvish will be the chalky SP in this game, I see no reason to pay 9.4k for Darvish when Sandy at 7.7k is going to come very close to not only matching him but if the Marlins can steal a win for Sandy then he can beat our Yu.

This is a great example of remembering how everyone viewed a player during the off-season and specifically with a pitcher jumping on them after a start which didn’t go as planned.  San Diego is a good team yes, but does not hit as well at home and we should have ourselves a fun little 2-1 pitchers duel tonight.

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YU DARVISH

The rain in other spots is going to bring Darvish into the “fine, just take him” category today.  I’m never much of a Yu guy but he is great in PETCO and I can’t see him not getting 20 KD fpts against the Marlins today.  If someone I have mentioned to go is cleared then Darvish becomes option #4 or a late night SP game stack only.

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Nationals vs Angels

Anaheim will be among the chalkiest teams today but do not sleep on the Nationals who actually had a shorter flight to get here than Anaheim.  Both sides should jump on the opposing SP with Soto/Bell/Yadi Hernandez being three guys I can see taking Jaime Barria deep.  I remember when people thought that Barria was a reverse splits guy who got hammered by RHB.  Turns out, he is just a guy who loves to get hammered, which if we are talking about drinking and hanging out with the fellas is not that bad, but in terms of pitching…. eh, it’s bad.

Yes.  Trout will homer, thank you Captain Obvious.  But you want Brandon Marsh/Jared Walsh just as much.

Nats Stack:   Soto, Bell, Hernandez

Angels stack:  Walsh, Rendon, Marsh

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Braves

Sadly I cannot use my Huascar Ynoa joke here as he is pitching for the Stripers tonight (AAA team).  But let me just cut to the chase, the Braves are winning, Ynoa that right?

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Screw Eric Lauer that overrated junk-turd.  Righties park and Acuna Ambush on the night nobody plays the Braves and they drop a 12 hammer.   13-2 Braves, I’m only listing them last because when you put an Atlanta team in front of the pack at the start things never finish well, so we’re going to just calmly stack the Braves and not talk about it.

  • Ronald Acuna
  • Austin Riley
  • Ozzie Albies
  • Travis d’Arnaud
  • NOT … Dansby Swanson

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Other viable offenses to look at:

  • Rockies (Blackmon)
  • Diamondbacks (Marte)
  • Astros (Brantley)

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CATCHER

  1. Travis d’Arnaud
  2. Elias Diaz
  3. Yasmani Grandal

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FIRST BASE

This position was going to be Spencer Torkelson but I guess he can’t play tonight.  So ride Anaheim game.  We need value, so I am bumping up Walsh.

  1. Jared Walsh
  2. Josh Bell

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SECOND BASE

The deepest position tonight?  Yes, that would be second base of all things.  It’s Jose Altuve’s birthday, so if you are planning to take your kids down to the local Chuck-E-Cheese you might find that the ball pit is occupied with other kids celebrating the Altuve party.  Seriously, whatever happened to the ball pits at Chuck-E-Cheese?

Did we finally realize that they are filled with germs?  Or did they keep them during COVID and just determine that they’re gonna have to wipe down each ball every hour.  That actually sounds really bad so just note that Ozzie owns the Brewers and Ketel Marte is our chalky buy low guy.

  1. Ozzie Albies
  2. Ketel Marte … Buy Low Buy Low Buy Low….  Dude is too cheap everywhere.
  3. Jose Altuve – Birthday narrative…  Hey, how about that…

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THIRD BASE

  1. Austin Riley
  2. Nolan Arenado
  3. Ryan McMahon

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SHORTSTOP

This is the best position go ‘get weird’ as we say tonight.  

  1. Amed Rosario
  2. Xander Bogaerts
  3. Elvis Andrus

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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

  1. Ronald Acuna Jr
  2. Juan Soto
  3. Marcell Ozuna
  4. Brandon Marsh

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OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. Austin Meadows
  2. Charlie Blackmon
  3. Robbie Grossman

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OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Yadiel Hernandez
  2. Stephen Piscotty
  3. Michael Brantley

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  1. Spencer Torkelson – 1B – Tigers – BANNED from The Dongers Club
  2. Ronald Acuna Jr – OF – Braves
  3. Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves – The New Chairman of the Dongers Club
  4. Travis d’Arnaud – C – Braves
  5. Amed Rosario – SS – Guardians
  6. Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
  7. Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
  8. Brandon Marsh – OF – Angels
  9. BONUS …………………………… Josh Bell – 1B – Nationals

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Core Plays

  • SP:  Gilbert/Alcantara
  • Albies/Acuna
  • Jared Walsh

Best Value Plays

  • Walsh, Hernandez, Piscotty
  • Punting C & SS

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Expected Chalk

  • Angels
  • Diamondbacks – Very cheap pricing on Arizona.  Follow the pricing.  Colorado is the play.
  • Brewers

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Best Low Owned Offense(s) / Pitchers

  • Braves
  • Shane Bieber
  • Rockies

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Favorite Bets

  • Mariners ML -127
  • Braves ML -113
  • Rockies ML +124
  • Nationals ML
  • Tigers ML +177

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