MLB has started the second half of the season off with a heavy Saturday night slate instead of splitting the Saturday games up. Likely because they are worried about hot games in certain locations and want better attendance. We saw that I was dead wrong on how the hitting would come out last night and it was duly noted as the offense was much stronger in many spots than I had anticipated it would be out of the gate. One thing to definitely monitoring though is going to be how teams shuffle lineups in the second half of the season when they are struggling or potentially rolling new players in after trades. I expect a fairly busy trade season when it comes to making minor one off type trades here and there, so we’re going to see lineups shuffle and it’s important to note which offenses are rolling and which ones are not.
WEATHER / GAMES
Padres at Nationals, Mets at Pirates: Both these games are similar in that they have some light rain concerns but should play. We aren’t looking at using pitchers in either game, so it’s not an impact.
Red Sox at Yankees: This one has pitching options in it however, so we’ll want to monitor it’s status closer to lock. Should play though. The options are not going to make my top 3 but Eovaldi always seems to bring the juice vs the Yankees and gets a really bad Yankee lineup while Gerrit Cole to me had his “look at my nuts” game before the break and will go back to being someone that I’m fading.
All games wind up playing.
l
Hopefully we don’t have massive pitching changes today like yesterday. Kevin Gausman was scratched because his wife is having pregnancy issues and he was sent home to be with her which is why he was scratched yesterday.
Anthony DeSclafani
The comp pitchers tonight to DeSclafani are Walker Buehler in Coors Field and Lucas Giolito against the Astros, a team that should almost never be picked on with pitching. Both Buehler and Giolito actually make the SLEEPER category tonight but DeSclafani is the guy with the weaker opponent/stadium/weather factors all combined together. The Italian as I call him has dominated RH batters this year to a low .247 xWOBA and as we know the Cardinals are mostly RH dependent for doing damage. Should be a less than 1K per inning performance but a strong 7 inning outing is definitely a probability today.
Max Fried
Five…. Five Inning… Five Inning Max Frieeeeed. That’s the floor with Max Fried these days, with his last three starts before the break all resulting in 5 innings and because of that trend, we’re getting him a little lower $ than he should be tonight. LHP have continued to manage the Rays lineup better than righties, so he has a good boost in that perspective and right now I trust him more than trusting Singer or Castillo who are the other value options tonight.
![subway's any 5 dollar footlong ad 2010 #1 [HD] on Make a GIF](https://i.makeagif.com/media/8-16-2018/ymYfAK.gif)
Nathan Eovaldi
Weather is a risk and perception of Yankee stadium is also another factor, but New York is down some key bats (namely Judge) and Nate has really done well against the Yankees historically. If the rain is completely clear then feel comfortable using Eovaldi in what looks like another low scoring Yankee-Sox game.
SLEEPERS
Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito
I think Buehler will have 5-10% ownership at most, but Giolito against Houston is going to be ignored. Chicago’s plays these early Saturday evening games which nobody picks up on the fact that they are starting an hour early and historically in Comiskey in the summer there are strong shadows and low scoring 1-3 innings there. While Houston does not strike out a ton, Lucas is one guy who just accrues points every time out. With his good frame he’s 100+ pitches and should be trusted by La Russa against the good Astros to go deep again today — he’s also someone who hitters will chase more the first time seeing and Houston hasn’t seen him since 2019. I like both these guys to do well with Giolito being the real wild card arm.
Value Options: Brady Singer … Couple Orioles bats (Mullins specifically) should do well vs Singer and he is another arm who can be limited this time of season, but among the value arms he is most likely to hit 2.5x
Another slate where we don’t have that one team we are latching onto. Welcome to a spread it out 2-2-2 Friday….
Nationals
Soto, Trea, Harrison
One of the golden rules in DFS which has continually been good is jumping on the “other side” of a game that was a high scoring blowout the night before. Added bonus is that the Nationals get ole ***** Snell in a road game and the way Washington hits LHP at home they should jump all over him tonight. There has been a lot of talk around Nationals circles that Juan Soto is going to have a reverse home run derby effect because it actually got him to get his swing elevated much more and low and behold he starts off with 2 HR last night. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him hit 3 more this weekend. This game does have storm issues, but those mostly impact the pitching.
Brew-crew vs Reds
Wong/Yelich … Winker/Naquin/Votto
Hot take of the day – this game is going off like the Padres and Nationals last night and it’s much lower ownership.
Other teams favorable for hitting
Dodgers … Justin Turner
Mariners: Love Kelenic, much like Franco, rookies will hit better after the ASB and the Mariners will beat up on Cobb tonight.
CATCHER
- Tres Barrera – Min price on one of the top teams tonight
- Salvador Perez
- Omar Narvaez
FIRST BASE
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Joey Votto
- Jose Abreu
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Josh Harrison
- Kolten Wong
THIRD BASE
- Justin Turner
- Kyle Seager
- Wander Franco … Bold prediction. Franco is going to go OFF the second half of the season. So much so, that he’ll be priced with the studs by mid August.
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Chris Taylor
- Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Christian Yelich
- Juan Soto
- Jesse Winker
- Kyle Tucker – The #1 problem with Giolito tonight is Tucker.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mitch Haniger
- Tyler Naquin
- Cedric Mullins
- Mookie Betts
- Cody Bellinger
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jarred Kelenic
- Andrew Benintendi
- Gavin Sheets
- Ryan O’Hearn
The Dongers Club
- Jarred Kelenic – OF – Mariners – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Trea Turner – SS – Nationals
- Mookie Betts – OF – Dodgers
- Wander Franco – 3B – Rays
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- Josh Harrison – 2B – Nationals
- Ryan Zimmerman – 1B – Nationals
- BONUS ………………… Jesse Winker – OF – Reds
HR PARLAY
Yelich – Kelenic – Trea Turner
BETS
Mariners ML
The Chalkiest Stacks
Dodgers
Padres
Royals
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
TBD
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Mariners vs Cobb: Haniger, Kelenic, Seager
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
High $$ – DeSclafani and Giolito
Mid $$ – DeSclafani and Fried
Low $$ – Fried and Singer
Favorite CORE Hitters
Yelich
Kelenic
Zimmerman
J Turner